比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：圣诞节后牛市会收复 10 万美元阻力位吗？

在过去 24 小时内，随着市场进入圣诞节气氛，比特币 [BTC] 经历了小幅上涨。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 98,056 美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] price action over the past 24 hours has seen the primary digital asset experience small gains as the markets enter the Christmas mood. At press time, BTC was trading at $98,056. This marked a 4.16% increase over the last 24 hours.

随着市场进入圣诞节气氛，比特币 [BTC] 的价格走势在过去 24 小时内出现了小幅上涨。截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 98,056 美元。这标志着过去 24 小时内增加了 4.16%。

However, BTC price action over Christmas Eve saw the asset surge from a low of $93,461 to a high of $99,419. This uptick over the past day has left analysts talking over BTC performance post-Christmas.

然而，圣诞节前夕的 BTC 价格走势导致该资产从 93,461 美元的低点飙升至 99,419 美元的高点。过去一天的上涨让分析师开始谈论圣诞节后比特币的表现。

One analysis suggests that BTC will move sideways during the Christmas week, then a distribution movement will follow as demand for short positions rises.

一项分析表明，比特币将在圣诞节期间横盘整理，然后随着空头头寸需求的增加，分配运动将随之而来。

Bitcoin demand for short positions rises

比特币空头需求上升

According to the analysis by Cryptoquant analyst Traders Oasis, BTC has seen a correction the past weeks over the lack of institutional demand.

根据 Cryptoquant 分析师 Traders Oasis 的分析，由于缺乏机构需求，比特币在过去几周出现了回调。

In his analysis, he highlighted that the Coinbase premium index did not accompany the price rise, thus leading to a retrace. However, the analysis expects the market to continue with the rise as the index has entered negative territory.

他在分析中强调，Coinbase 溢价指数并未伴随价格上涨，从而导致回撤。然而，分析预计，由于该指数已进入负值区域，市场将继续上涨。

Continuation of the potential rise is supported by funding rates and open interest, the analysis noted.

分析指出，潜在上涨的持续受到融资利率和未平仓合约的支持。

As such, the funding rate has declined which is a positive sign for a bull market, while open interest has surged over the past days.

因此，融资利率下降，这对牛市来说是一个积极信号，而过去几天未平仓合约激增。

When the funding rate declines while open interest rises, it indicates that investors are opening short trades. With investors opening short trades, it suggests that they expect prices to drop.

当资金费率下降而持仓量上升时，表明投资者正在开空头交易。随着投资者开始做空交易，这表明他们预计价格会下跌。

However, demand for short trades could result in a short squeeze as buying pressure increases. This spike attracts more buyers, thus creating a self-reinforcing rally.

然而，随着购买压力的增加，空头交易的需求可能会导致轧空。这种飙升吸引了更多买家，从而创造了自我强化的反弹。

We can see this demand for Bitcoin over the past three days. Over this period, the BTC fund flow ratio has spiked from 0.084 to 0.137.

我们可以看到过去三天对比特币的需求。在此期间，BTC 资金流量比率从 0.084 飙升至 0.137。

When the fund flow ratio rises, it implies that more money is being invested into Bitcoin. Such a trend is a bullish signal suggesting that investors are willing to allocate more capital to BTC. This leads to rising prices because of increased buying pressure.

当资金流量比率上升时，意味着有更多资金投入比特币。这种趋势是一个看涨信号，表明投资者愿意向比特币配置更多资金。由于购买压力增加，这导致价格上涨。

Moreover, the increased inflow means more BTC are moving off exchanges thus raising scarcity. With more traders turning to buying the crypto, it’s now becoming scarce as evidenced by a rising stock-to-flow ratio.

此外，流入量的增加意味着更多的比特币正在从交易所转移，从而加剧了稀缺性。随着越来越多的交易者转向购买加密货币，它现在变得稀缺，库存流量比的上升就证明了这一点。

When Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its prices rise as higher demand with low supply leads to higher prices.

当比特币变得更加稀缺时，其价格就会上涨，因为需求增加而供应减少导致价格上涨。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测

What’s next for BTC

比特币的下一步是什么

With investor’s demand for short trades rising, it seems these traders could suffer from a short squeeze. This is when the demand for those taking short causes the opposite market reaction driving prices up.

随着投资者对空头交易的需求不断上升，这些交易者似乎可能会遭遇轧空。这时，空头的需求会引起相反的市场反应，从而推动价格上涨。

Therefore, if the demand remains constant while supply is falling as observed, we could see Bitcoin reclaim the $100k resistance post-Christmas. However, if the crypto continues trading sideways, it might drop to $96600.

因此，如果需求保持不变，而供应如观察到的那样下降，我们可能会看到比特币在圣诞节后重回 10 万美元的阻力位。然而，如果加密货币继续横向交易，它可能会跌至 96600 美元。