比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：聖誕節後多頭市場會收復 10 萬美元阻力位嗎？

在過去 24 小時內，隨著市場進入聖誕節氣氛，比特幣 [BTC] 經歷了小幅上漲。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 98,056 美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] price action over the past 24 hours has seen the primary digital asset experience small gains as the markets enter the Christmas mood. At press time, BTC was trading at $98,056. This marked a 4.16% increase over the last 24 hours.

隨著市場進入聖誕節氣氛，比特幣 [BTC] 的價格走勢在過去 24 小時內出現了小幅上漲。截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 98,056 美元。這標誌著過去 24 小時內增加了 4.16%。

However, BTC price action over Christmas Eve saw the asset surge from a low of $93,461 to a high of $99,419. This uptick over the past day has left analysts talking over BTC performance post-Christmas.

然而，聖誕節前夕的 BTC 價格走勢導致該資產從 93,461 美元的低點飆升至 99,419 美元的高點。過去一天的上漲讓分析師開始談論聖誕節後比特幣的表現。

One analysis suggests that BTC will move sideways during the Christmas week, then a distribution movement will follow as demand for short positions rises.

一項分析表明，比特幣將在聖誕節期間橫盤整理，然後隨著空頭部位需求的增加，分配運動將隨之而來。

Bitcoin demand for short positions rises

比特幣空頭需求上升

According to the analysis by Cryptoquant analyst Traders Oasis, BTC has seen a correction the past weeks over the lack of institutional demand.

根據 Cryptoquant 分析師 Traders Oasis 的分析，由於缺乏機構需求，比特幣在過去幾週出現了回檔。

In his analysis, he highlighted that the Coinbase premium index did not accompany the price rise, thus leading to a retrace. However, the analysis expects the market to continue with the rise as the index has entered negative territory.

他在分析中強調，Coinbase 溢價指數並未伴隨價格上漲，導致回撤。然而，分析預計，由於該指數已進入負值區域，市場將繼續上漲。

Continuation of the potential rise is supported by funding rates and open interest, the analysis noted.

分析指出，潛在上漲的持續受到融資利率和未平倉合約的支持。

As such, the funding rate has declined which is a positive sign for a bull market, while open interest has surged over the past days.

因此，融資利率下降，這對多頭市場來說是一個積極信號，而過去幾天未平倉合約激增。

When the funding rate declines while open interest rises, it indicates that investors are opening short trades. With investors opening short trades, it suggests that they expect prices to drop.

當資金費率下降而持倉量上升時，表示投資者正在開空頭交易。隨著投資者開始做空交易，這表明他們預計價格會下跌。

However, demand for short trades could result in a short squeeze as buying pressure increases. This spike attracts more buyers, thus creating a self-reinforcing rally.

然而，隨著購買壓力的增加，空頭交易的需求可能會導致軋空。這種飆升吸引了更多買家，從而創造了自我強化的反彈。

We can see this demand for Bitcoin over the past three days. Over this period, the BTC fund flow ratio has spiked from 0.084 to 0.137.

我們可以看到過去三天對比特幣的需求。在此期間，BTC 資金流量比率從 0.084 飆升至 0.137。

When the fund flow ratio rises, it implies that more money is being invested into Bitcoin. Such a trend is a bullish signal suggesting that investors are willing to allocate more capital to BTC. This leads to rising prices because of increased buying pressure.

當資金流量比率上升時，意味著有更多資金投入比特幣。這種趨勢是一個看漲訊號，顯示投資者願意向比特幣配置更多資金。由於購買壓力增加，這導致價格上漲。

Moreover, the increased inflow means more BTC are moving off exchanges thus raising scarcity. With more traders turning to buying the crypto, it’s now becoming scarce as evidenced by a rising stock-to-flow ratio.

此外，流入量的增加意味著更多的比特幣正在從交易所轉移，從而加劇了稀缺性。隨著越來越多的交易者轉向購買加密貨幣，它現在變得稀缺，庫存流量比的上升就證明了這一點。

When Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its prices rise as higher demand with low supply leads to higher prices.

當比特幣變得更加稀缺時，其價格就會上漲，因為需求增加而供應減少導致價格上漲。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2024-25 價格預測

What’s next for BTC

比特幣的下一步是什麼

With investor’s demand for short trades rising, it seems these traders could suffer from a short squeeze. This is when the demand for those taking short causes the opposite market reaction driving prices up.

隨著投資者對空頭交易的需求不斷上升，這些交易者似乎可能會遭遇軋空。這時，空頭的需求會引起相反的市場反應，進而推動價格上漲。

Therefore, if the demand remains constant while supply is falling as observed, we could see Bitcoin reclaim the $100k resistance post-Christmas. However, if the crypto continues trading sideways, it might drop to $96600.

因此，如果需求保持不變，而供應如觀察到的下降，我們可能會看到比特幣在聖誕節後重回 10 萬美元的阻力位。然而，如果加密貨幣繼續橫向交易，它可能會跌至 96600 美元。