比特币（BTC）价格预测：牛市还是熊市？

比特币目前的价格为83,779美元，市值为1.66万亿美元，交易量为912.2亿美元

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has seen a relief rally from the lows seen earlier this week, but traders may be setting themselves up for a disappointment as major technical indicators suggest that the dominant trend remains bearish despite short-term rebounds.

比特币（BTC）的价格行动使本周早些时候看到的低点获得了救济集，但交易者可能会感到失望，因为主要技术指标表明，尽管短期篮板，但主要的趋势仍然是看跌的。

On Thursday morning, bitcoin was trading at $83,779, showing signs of bouncing within an intraday range of $78,197 to $84,854. The apex cryptocurrency had a market capitalization of $1.66 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $91.22 billion.

在星期四早上，比特币的交易价格为83,779美元，显示出在日内范围内弹跳的迹象在78,197美元至84,854美元之间。 Apex加密货币的市值为1.66万亿美元，交易量为912.2亿美元。

Bitcoin price analysis: Bulls may be setting themselves up for disappointment as major technical indicators suggest that the dominant trend remains bearish despite short-term rebounds.

比特币价格分析：公牛可能会感到失望，因为主要的技术指标表明，尽管短期篮板，但主要的趋势仍然看跌。

Recent price movement suggests that bitcoin has experienced a relief rally following a sharp decline to $78,197. However, multiple technical indicators indicate that the dominant trend remains bearish. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 25, signaling neutral conditions, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level remains negative at -3,345, indicating that bearish momentum is still in play. Additionally, the momentum oscillator registers at -11,908, reinforcing the weakness in upward price movement.

最近的价格变动表明，比特币在急剧下降至78,197美元之后经历了一场浮雕集会。但是，多个技术指标表明，主要的趋势仍然是看跌的。相对强度指数（RSI）位于25个信号中性条件下，而移动平均收敛差异（MACD）水平仍为-3,345，表明看跌动量仍在发挥作用。此外，动量振荡器的记录为-11,908，增强了价格上涨的弱点。

Although the Stochastic and commodity channel index, at the moment, suggest short-term positive signals, broader moving averages (MAs) overwhelmingly suggest continued downward pressure.

尽管目前的随机和商品渠道指数暗示了短期正信号，但更广泛的移动平均（MAS）以压倒性的持续向下压力。

On BTC’s daily chart, bitcoin is trading well below key resistance zones between $85,000 and $90,000, and the downward trajectory is supported by high selling volume. Every major moving average, including the exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) across 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 periods, reflects a strong negative sentiment. The only outlier is the simple moving average (SMA-200), which provides a bullish signal at $81,995, suggesting that this level may serve as a longer-term support. Given the broader market trend, any bounce toward resistance is likely to face significant selling pressure, making current price action suspect.

在BTC的每日图表上，比特币的交易远低于关键阻力区，在85,000美元至90,000美元之间，而下降轨迹得到了高销售量的支持。每个主要移动平均线，包括10、20、30、50和100个时期的简单移动平均值（EMA）和简单的移动平均值（SMA），都反映出强烈的负面情绪。唯一的离群值是简单的移动平均值（SMA-200），该平均值为81,995美元提供看涨信号，这表明此水平可以作为长期支持。考虑到更广泛的市场趋势，任何向抵抗的反弹都可能面临巨大的销售压力，这使得当前的价格行动可疑。

The 4-hour chart reflects a sharp sell-off, followed by a mild recovery that has yet to establish a sustainable uptrend. Resistance remains firmly in place at $84,000 to $86,000, with support holding near $78,000 to $80,000. A break above $85,000 with strong volume could shift momentum toward $90,000, but a rejection at this level would likely accelerate another downturn. The average directional index (ADX) at 43 confirms that the prevailing trend remains strong, favoring further downside unless bitcoin decisively breaks above key resistance levels.

4小时的图表反映了急剧的抛售，其次是温和的恢复，尚未建立可持续的上升趋势。阻力仍然牢固地固定在84,000至86,000美元之间，支援持有近78,000至80,000美元。超过85,000美元的大量突破可能会将势头转移到90,000美元，但在这个水平上的拒绝可能会加速另一场经济的下滑。 43处的平均方向指数（ADX）证实，当前的趋势仍然很强，除非比特币果断地超过关键阻力水平，否则有利于进一步的缺点。

Short-term traders may find opportunities within the 1-hour chart, where increased volume has accompanied a small bounce. While bullish interest appears to be picking up within the $80,000 to $82,000 zone, a failure to hold above $79,000 could invalidate any bullish setups. If bitcoin reclaims $85,000, a push toward $88,000 to $90,000 may follow, but the broader technical landscape suggests caution. The overwhelming bearish outlook from moving averages and weak momentum indicators make this recent price action susceptible to a bull trap, where buyers may be lured into the market before another sharp sell-off occurs.

短期交易者可能会在1小时的图表中找到机会，在1小时的图表中，量增加的量伴随着很小的反弹。尽管看涨的利息似乎在80,000美元至82,000美元的$ 82,000区域内，但未能持有79,000美元以上的股份可能使任何看涨的设置无效。如果比特币收回$ 85,000，则可能会付出88,000美元至90,000美元，但更广泛的技术格局表示谨慎。移动平均和弱势指标的压倒性看跌前景使得最近的价格行动容易受到公牛陷阱的影响，在此期间，在另一个急剧抛售之前，可能会将买家引诱到市场。

Given the combination of technical factors, traders should approach the current price action with skepticism. While bitcoin’s short-term bounce is drawing attention, major resistance levels and persistently bearish moving averages cast doubt on the sustainability of this recovery. A failure to break above $85,000 convincingly would likely reinforce the bear case, leading to another test of support at $78,000 or lower. As market conditions remain volatile, risk management is crucial, as the possibility of a deeper retracement remains in play.

鉴于技术因素的结合，交易者应与怀疑论达到当前的价格行动。尽管比特币的短期反弹正在引起人们的注意，但主要的抵抗力水平和持续的看跌平均值对这种恢复的可持续性产生了怀疑。不可令人信服地打破85,000美元以上的损失可能会加强该熊案，从而导致另一项支持的测试为78,000美元或更低。随着市场状况的波动，风险管理至关重要，因为更深层回撤的可能性仍在起作用。

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比特币后的公牛可能会感到失望，因为主要的技术指标表明，尽管短期篮板，但主要的趋势仍然是看跌的。首先出现在TokenPost上|加密，web3，nft，defi，metaverse等。