比特币（BTC）价格前景今天面临越来越多的逆风

摇摇欲坠的全球市场受到关税战争和脆弱的美国债券市场的惊吓，对加密货币产生了阴影。

The Bitcoin (BTC) price outlook faces growing headwinds today as shaky global markets, spooked by tariff wars and a fragile U.S. bond market, cast a shadow over the cryptocurrency.

比特币（BTC）的价格前景如今面临着越来越多的逆风，因为摇摇欲坠的全球市场受到关税战争和脆弱的美国债券市场的惊吓，对加密货币产生了阴影。

While long-term prospects remain bright, fresh data reveals short-term weakness and increasing caution among retail traders, warns a new note from Hyblock Capital.

尽管长期前景仍然很亮，但新鲜的数据揭示了零售商人的短期弱点和谨慎的态度，但杂种资本的新票据警告。

The analysis, penned by CEO Shubh Varma, pointed to a tumultuous week where tariff headlines dominated market sentiment, causing sharp swings in equities. Scott Bessent’s comment distinguishing between a “‘Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem'” highlighted perceived tech overvaluation amid the chaos, the note, seen by The Shib Daily, highlighted.

首席执行官Shubh Varma的撰写的分析指出了一个动荡的一周，关税头条占据了市场情绪，导致股票的急剧波动。斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）的评论区分了“'mag7问题，而不是maga问题”，强调了在混乱中的技术高估，这是每日湿巾所看到的，该音符被强调。

But more severe stress emerged in the bond market, with surging Treasury yields threatening financial stability after the “treasury basis trade imploded,” Varma wrote. A subsequent delay in most U.S. tariffs calmed nerves temporarily, but Hyblock cautions the bond market remains a “ticking time bomb.”

Varma写道，在债券市场中出现了更严重的压力，随着“国库基础贸易崩溃”，财政部累积的收益威胁着财务稳定。随后，美国大多数人的关税暂时平静了神经，但Hyblock警告说，债券市场仍然是“滴答时间炸弹”。

Macro Shifts Cloud Bitcoin Price Outlook

宏观变化云比特币价格前景

Global capital flows are also adding complexity. Hyblock noted China’s firm public stance on trade and a trend of European and Asian investors selling U.S. bonds and repatriating funds.

全球资本流也增加了复杂性。 Hyblock指出，中国对贸易的坚定公开立场以及出售美国债券和遣返资金的欧洲和亚洲投资者的趋势。

“Is this a temporary blip or a systemic shift in how Treasuries are perceived?” the note asked, questioning their safe-haven status. This uncertainty could drive demand for alternatives.

“这是临时的碎片还是全身转变，对国库的感知程度是什么？”纸条问，质疑他们的安全状况。这种不确定性可能会导致对替代方案的需求。

Varma suggested stablecoins might rise as a “new distribution channel for Treasuries,” while Bitcoin could benefit as both a risk-on alternative and a risk-off hedge. Despite this, the positive long-term Bitcoin price outlook into 2025 faces immediate hurdles.

Varma建议Stablecoins可能会成为“国债的新分销渠道”，而比特币则可以作为风险替代品和风险的对冲受益。尽管如此，2025年的长期长期比特币价格前景正面临即时障碍。

Short-Term Data Dims Bitcoin Price Outlook

短期数据昏暗的比特币价格前景

Hyblock’s specific indicators revealed bearish pressure impacting the near-term Bitcoin price outlook. The percentage of retail traders holding long positions on Binance recently fell to the 11th percentile, hitting a low of 40.77%.

Hyblock的特定指标揭示了看跌压力影响近期比特币价格前景。最近在二手股份中持有长期头寸的零售交易者的百分比最近降至第11个百分点，低至40.77％。

“Historically, BTC price is inversely correlated with this metric,” the note underlined, warning that a rise back towards 60% could precede a price drop. Negative orderbook ratios add to this friction, particularly as open interest increased.

该票据强调说：“从历史上看，BTC价格与该指标成反比。”警告说，返回60％的上升可能在价格下跌之前。负订购比率增加了这种摩擦，尤其是随着开放利息的增加。

Bybit data shows resistance near 84,950–85,200, while key support lies around 76,450–76,750. Binance data shows intermediate levels near $82,500 and $80,000. The report concluded that patience is critical as these conflicting signals play out, influencing the overall Bitcoin price outlook.

BYBIT数据显示，抵抗力接近84,950–85,200，而主要支持约为76,450–76,750。 Binance数据显示中级水平接近$ 82,500和80,000美元。该报告得出结论，耐心是至关重要的，因为这些相互矛盾的信号会影响整体比特币的价格前景。

Bitcoin Price Action

比特币价格动作

As of 3:24 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bitcoin is trading at $84,179.30, down 1.06% in the past 24 hours. Despite the daily dip, the cryptocurrency has gained 9.28% over the past week and remains up 1.12% over the past 30 days, reflecting a broader recovery trend.

截至美国东部时间周二下午3:24，比特币的交易价格为84,179.30美元，在过去24小时内下跌1.06％。尽管每天下降，但在过去一周中，加密货币在过去30天中增长了9.28％，这一数字上涨了1.12％，这反映了更广泛的恢复趋势。

Trading volume over the last 24 hours has dropped sharply by 24.59%, totaling $27.65 billion, signaling a slowdown in market activity. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands at $1.66 trillion, down 1.07%, with a circulating supply of 19.85 million BTC, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

过去24小时的交易量急剧下降了24.59％，总计276.5亿美元，这表明市场活动放缓。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，比特币的市值现在为1.66万亿美元，下降了1.07％，循环供应量为1985万美元。