比特幣（BTC）價格前景今天面臨越來越多的逆風

搖搖欲墜的全球市場受到關稅戰爭和脆弱的美國債券市場的驚嚇，對加密貨幣產生了陰影。

The Bitcoin (BTC) price outlook faces growing headwinds today as shaky global markets, spooked by tariff wars and a fragile U.S. bond market, cast a shadow over the cryptocurrency.

比特幣（BTC）的價格前景如今面臨著越來越多的逆風，因為搖搖欲墜的全球市場受到關稅戰爭和脆弱的美國債券市場的驚嚇，對加密貨幣產生了陰影。

While long-term prospects remain bright, fresh data reveals short-term weakness and increasing caution among retail traders, warns a new note from Hyblock Capital.

儘管長期前景仍然很亮，但新鮮的數據揭示了零售商人的短期弱點和謹慎的態度，但雜種資本的新票據警告。

The analysis, penned by CEO Shubh Varma, pointed to a tumultuous week where tariff headlines dominated market sentiment, causing sharp swings in equities. Scott Bessent’s comment distinguishing between a “‘Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem'” highlighted perceived tech overvaluation amid the chaos, the note, seen by The Shib Daily, highlighted.

首席執行官Shubh Varma的撰寫的分析指出了一個動蕩的一周，關稅頭條佔據了市場情緒，導致股票的急劇波動。斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）的評論區分了“'mag7問題，而不是maga問題”，強調了在混亂中的技術高估，這是每日濕巾所看到的，該音符被強調。

But more severe stress emerged in the bond market, with surging Treasury yields threatening financial stability after the “treasury basis trade imploded,” Varma wrote. A subsequent delay in most U.S. tariffs calmed nerves temporarily, but Hyblock cautions the bond market remains a “ticking time bomb.”

Varma寫道，在債券市場中出現了更嚴重的壓力，隨著“國庫基礎貿易崩潰”，財政部累積的收益威脅著財務穩定。隨後，美國大多數人的關稅暫時平靜了神經，但Hyblock警告說，債券市場仍然是“滴答時間炸彈”。

Macro Shifts Cloud Bitcoin Price Outlook

宏觀變化雲比特幣價格前景

Global capital flows are also adding complexity. Hyblock noted China’s firm public stance on trade and a trend of European and Asian investors selling U.S. bonds and repatriating funds.

全球資本流也增加了複雜性。 Hyblock指出，中國對貿易的堅定公開立場以及出售美國債券和遣返資金的歐洲和亞洲投資者的趨勢。

“Is this a temporary blip or a systemic shift in how Treasuries are perceived?” the note asked, questioning their safe-haven status. This uncertainty could drive demand for alternatives.

“這是臨時的碎片還是全身轉變，對國庫的感知程度是什麼？”紙條問，質疑他們的安全狀況。這種不確定性可能會導致對替代方案的需求。

Varma suggested stablecoins might rise as a “new distribution channel for Treasuries,” while Bitcoin could benefit as both a risk-on alternative and a risk-off hedge. Despite this, the positive long-term Bitcoin price outlook into 2025 faces immediate hurdles.

Varma建議Stablecoins可能會成為“國債的新分銷渠道”，而比特幣則可以作為風險替代品和風險的對沖受益。儘管如此，2025年的長期長期比特幣價格前景正面臨即時障礙。

Short-Term Data Dims Bitcoin Price Outlook

短期數據昏暗的比特幣價格前景

Hyblock’s specific indicators revealed bearish pressure impacting the near-term Bitcoin price outlook. The percentage of retail traders holding long positions on Binance recently fell to the 11th percentile, hitting a low of 40.77%.

Hyblock的特定指標揭示了看跌壓力影響近期比特幣價格前景。最近在二手股份中持有長期頭寸的零售交易者的百分比最近降至第11個百分點，低至40.77％。

“Historically, BTC price is inversely correlated with this metric,” the note underlined, warning that a rise back towards 60% could precede a price drop. Negative orderbook ratios add to this friction, particularly as open interest increased.

該票據強調說：“從歷史上看，BTC價格與該指標成反比。”警告說，返回60％的上升可能在價格下跌之前。負訂購比率增加了這種摩擦，尤其是隨著開放利息的增加。

Bybit data shows resistance near 84,950–85,200, while key support lies around 76,450–76,750. Binance data shows intermediate levels near $82,500 and $80,000. The report concluded that patience is critical as these conflicting signals play out, influencing the overall Bitcoin price outlook.

BYBIT數據顯示，抵抗力接近84,950–85,200，而主要支持約為76,450–76,750。 Binance數據顯示中級水平接近$ 82,500和80,000美元。該報告得出結論，耐心是至關重要的，因為這些相互矛盾的信號會影響整體比特幣的價格前景。

Bitcoin Price Action

比特幣價格動作

As of 3:24 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bitcoin is trading at $84,179.30, down 1.06% in the past 24 hours. Despite the daily dip, the cryptocurrency has gained 9.28% over the past week and remains up 1.12% over the past 30 days, reflecting a broader recovery trend.

截至美國東部時間週二下午3:24，比特幣的交易價格為84,179.30美元，在過去24小時內下跌1.06％。儘管每天下降，但在過去一周中，加密貨幣在過去30天中增長了9.28％，這一數字上漲了1.12％，這反映了更廣泛的恢復趨勢。

Trading volume over the last 24 hours has dropped sharply by 24.59%, totaling $27.65 billion, signaling a slowdown in market activity. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands at $1.66 trillion, down 1.07%, with a circulating supply of 19.85 million BTC, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

過去24小時的交易量急劇下降了24.59％，總計276.5億美元，這表明市場活動放緩。根據CoinMarketCap的數據，比特幣的市值現在為1.66萬億美元，下降了1.07％，循環供應量為1985萬美元。