比特币 (BTC) 价格接近 90,000 美元，鲸鱼和 ETF 推动增持；接下来是什么？

11 月 13 日，比特币价格上涨至 93,500 美元，但随后回落，交易员们预计未来可能出现动荡，因此继续持有比特币。

Bitcoin closed out the week at around $90,000, notching its highest weekly close ever and posting monthly gains of 32%. Now, traders and analysts are keenly watching BTC’s next move.

比特币本周收于 90,000 美元左右，创历史最高周收盘价，月度涨幅达 32%。现在，交易员和分析师正在密切关注比特币的下一步走势。

Here's a look at five key points for BTC holders as the market pivots at a crucial juncture.

随着市场在关键时刻发生转变，以下是比特币持有者面临的五个关键点。

Bitcoin’s record highs trigger volatility alerts

比特币创历史新高引发波动警报

Bitcoin rose to a high of $93,500 on November 13 before pulling back, and traders waited to see any signs of potential turbulence ahead. A crypto trader on X, Skew, noted that the Bitcoin price “held the 21-period EMA on four-hour timeframes” with key points to watch at $90,000 and $91,300.

比特币于 11 月 13 日升至 93,500 美元的高位，然后回落，交易员等待着未来潜在动荡的迹象。 X 上的加密货币交易员 Skew 指出，比特币价格“在 4 小时时间范围内保持在 21 周期 EMA 附近”，值得关注的关键点位为 90,000 美元和 91,300 美元。

Another commentator, CrypNuevo, called for a spike toward $95,000–$96,000 this week. He also warned that large traders will be looking to take out the naive new entrants as Bitcoin approaches the psychologically important $100,000 level. “It’d also make sense to spike up near $100k without fully reaching there, and then reverse down,” CrypNuevo speculated. Notably, some market analysts are also calling for a BTC price rally to $135K, as reported by CNF.

另一位评论员 CrypNuevo 呼吁本周金价飙升至 95,000 美元至 96,000 美元。他还警告说，随着比特币接近重要的心理关口 10 万美元，大型交易商将寻求淘汰那些幼稚的新进入者。 “在没有完全达到 10 万美元的情况下飙升至 10 万美元附近，然后反转下跌也是有意义的，”CrypNuevo 推测。值得注意的是，据 CNF 报道，一些市场分析师还呼吁 BTC 价格上涨至 13.5 万美元。

Meanwhile, some traders are eyeing entry points on pullbacks, and Crypto Chase revealed its strategy, stating that it would buy intraday “gaps” between daily candle wicks in a bullish condition. “We will EVENTUALLY pullback into a Daily gap,” he noted, adding that his target for additional entries is around $83,000.

与此同时，一些交易员正在关注回调的切入点，Crypto Chase 透露了其策略，表示将在看涨情况下买入日烛芯之间的日内“缺口”。他指出：“我们最终将回落至每日缺口。”他补充说，他的额外入场目标约为 83,000 美元。

Bitcoin whales, ETFs drive accumulation

比特币鲸鱼、ETF推动积累

On-chain data shows that BTC continues to be scooped up by whales and institutional investors, even as flows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs were less stellar. Holdings in spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown by 425,000 BTC since January, which is about 5.33% of the total circulating supply, reported CNF.

链上数据显示，尽管流入现货比特币 ETF 的资金并不那么出色，但比特币仍继续受到鲸鱼和机构投资者的青睐。据 CNF 报道，自 1 月份以来，现货比特币 ETF 的持有量已增加 425,000 BTC，约占流通总量的 5.33%。

“As more Bitcoin is accumulated through spot ETFs, we can expect the price to continue its upward trend,” said CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D. However, last week, the ETF activity was volatile, with two days notching net outflows of over $750 million.

CryptoQuant 撰稿人 MAC_D 表示：“随着更多比特币通过现货 ETF 积累，我们预计价格将继续呈上升趋势。”然而，上周 ETF 活动波动较大，两天净流出超过 7.5 亿美元。

Sentiment indicators flash cautionary signals

情绪指标闪烁警示信号

Crypto sentiment tools are starting to heat up, and Blockchain analytics firm Santiment noted that major price moves in Bitcoin are accompanied by spikes in social media activity. “The hype across social media platforms is calling the tops very reliably,” the firm stated, highlighting the increasing mentions of the $100,000 price targets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index showed the same trend, hitting 90/100 on November 17. This level is usually associated with “extreme greed” and past market reversals.

加密货币情绪工具开始升温，区块链分析公司 Santiment 指出，比特币价格的大幅波动伴随着社交媒体活动的激增。该公司表示：“社交媒体平台上的炒作非常可靠地宣布了价格目标。”并强调越来越多的人提到 10 万美元的目标价。加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数也显示出同样的趋势，于 11 月 17 日触及 90/100。该水平通常与“极度贪婪”和过去的市场逆转相关。

Macroeconomic uncertainty lingers

宏观经济不确定性依然存在

Bitcoin’s surge comes as the macroeconomic landscape continues to shift, and picking up on October’s inflation, some commentators warn of stagflation, a rising price environment accompanied by high unemployment. Monetary policymakers, meanwhile, are expecting more cuts by the Federal Reserve.

比特币的飙升之际，宏观经济格局继续发生变化，并且十月通胀加剧，一些评论人士警告称，可能会出现滞胀、物价上涨环境和高失业率。与此同时，货币政策制定者预计美联储将进一步降息。

However, others suggest that the pivot is being delayed for now as contrasting data is giving policymakers mixed signals. With Bitcoin still trading at around $90,000, the market is poised for its next move, and several traders are bracing for increased volatility as some anticipate a continuation toward $100,000 while others are cashing in on its retracements.

然而，其他人则认为，这一转向目前正在被推迟，因为对比数据给政策制定者带来了复杂的信号。由于比特币的交易价格仍在 90,000 美元左右，市场已为下一步走势做好了准备，一些交易员正在为波动性加大做好准备，因为一些交易员预计比特币将继续升至 100,000 美元，而另一些交易员则从其回调中获利。