比特幣 (BTC) 價格接近 9 萬美元，鯨魚和 ETF 推動增持；接下來是什麼？

11 月 13 日，比特幣價格上漲至 93,500 美元，但隨後回落，交易員們預計未來可能會出現動盪，因此繼續持有比特幣。

Bitcoin closed out the week at around $90,000, notching its highest weekly close ever and posting monthly gains of 32%. Now, traders and analysts are keenly watching BTC’s next move.

比特幣本週收在 9 萬美元左右，創史上最高週收盤價，月漲幅達 32%。現在，交易員和分析師正在密切關注比特幣的下一步走勢。

Here's a look at five key points for BTC holders as the market pivots at a crucial juncture.

隨著市場在關鍵時刻轉變，以下是比特幣持有者面臨的五個關鍵點。

Bitcoin’s record highs trigger volatility alerts

比特幣創歷史新高引發波動警報

Bitcoin rose to a high of $93,500 on November 13 before pulling back, and traders waited to see any signs of potential turbulence ahead. A crypto trader on X, Skew, noted that the Bitcoin price “held the 21-period EMA on four-hour timeframes” with key points to watch at $90,000 and $91,300.

比特幣於 11 月 13 日昇至 93,500 美元的高位，然後回落，交易員等待著未來潛在動盪的跡象。 X 上的加密貨幣交易員 Skew 指出，比特幣價格“在 4 小時時間範圍內保持在 21 週期 EMA 附近”，值得關注的關鍵點位為 90,000 美元和 91,300 美元。

Another commentator, CrypNuevo, called for a spike toward $95,000–$96,000 this week. He also warned that large traders will be looking to take out the naive new entrants as Bitcoin approaches the psychologically important $100,000 level. “It’d also make sense to spike up near $100k without fully reaching there, and then reverse down,” CrypNuevo speculated. Notably, some market analysts are also calling for a BTC price rally to $135K, as reported by CNF.

另一位評論員 CrypNuevo 呼籲本周金價飆升至 95,000 美元至 96,000 美元。他還警告說，隨著比特幣接近重要的心理關卡 10 萬美元，大型交易商將尋求淘汰那些幼稚的新進入者。 「在沒有完全達到 10 萬美元的情況下飆升至 10 萬美元附近，然後反轉下跌也是有道理的，」CrypNuevo 推測。值得注意的是，根據 CNF 報導，一些市場分析師也呼籲 BTC 價格上漲至 135,000 美元。

Meanwhile, some traders are eyeing entry points on pullbacks, and Crypto Chase revealed its strategy, stating that it would buy intraday “gaps” between daily candle wicks in a bullish condition. “We will EVENTUALLY pullback into a Daily gap,” he noted, adding that his target for additional entries is around $83,000.

與此同時，一些交易員正在關注回調的切入點，Crypto Chase 透露了其策略，表示將在看漲情況下買入日燭芯之間的日內「缺口」。他指出：「我們最終將回落至每日缺口。」他補充說，他的額外入場目標約為 83,000 美元。

Bitcoin whales, ETFs drive accumulation

比特幣鯨魚、ETF推動積累

On-chain data shows that BTC continues to be scooped up by whales and institutional investors, even as flows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs were less stellar. Holdings in spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown by 425,000 BTC since January, which is about 5.33% of the total circulating supply, reported CNF.

鏈上數據顯示，儘管流入現貨比特幣 ETF 的資金不那麼出色，但 BTC 仍繼續受到鯨魚和機構投資者的青睞。根據 CNF 報告，自 1 月以來，現貨比特幣 ETF 的持有量已增加 425,000 BTC，約佔流通總量的 5.33%。

“As more Bitcoin is accumulated through spot ETFs, we can expect the price to continue its upward trend,” said CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D. However, last week, the ETF activity was volatile, with two days notching net outflows of over $750 million.

CryptoQuant 撰稿人 MAC_D 表示：“隨著更多比特幣透過現貨 ETF 積累，我們預計價格將繼續呈上升趨勢。”然而，上週 ETF 活動波動較大，兩天淨流出超過 7.5 億美元。

Sentiment indicators flash cautionary signals

情緒指標閃爍警告訊號

Crypto sentiment tools are starting to heat up, and Blockchain analytics firm Santiment noted that major price moves in Bitcoin are accompanied by spikes in social media activity. “The hype across social media platforms is calling the tops very reliably,” the firm stated, highlighting the increasing mentions of the $100,000 price targets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index showed the same trend, hitting 90/100 on November 17. This level is usually associated with “extreme greed” and past market reversals.

加密情緒工具開始升溫，區塊鏈分析公司 Santiment 指出，比特幣價格的大幅波動伴隨著社群媒體活動的激增。該公司表示：「社群媒體平台上的炒作非常可靠地宣布了價格目標。」並強調越來越多的人提到 10 萬美元的價格目標。加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數也顯示出同樣的趨勢，於 11 月 17 日觸及 90/100。

Macroeconomic uncertainty lingers

宏觀經濟不確定性依然存在

Bitcoin’s surge comes as the macroeconomic landscape continues to shift, and picking up on October’s inflation, some commentators warn of stagflation, a rising price environment accompanied by high unemployment. Monetary policymakers, meanwhile, are expecting more cuts by the Federal Reserve.

在比特幣的飆升之際，宏觀經濟格局繼續發生變化，十月通膨加劇，一些評論人士警告稱，可能會出現滯脹、物價上漲環境和高失業率。同時，貨幣政策制定者預計聯準會將進一步降息。

However, others suggest that the pivot is being delayed for now as contrasting data is giving policymakers mixed signals. With Bitcoin still trading at around $90,000, the market is poised for its next move, and several traders are bracing for increased volatility as some anticipate a continuation toward $100,000 while others are cashing in on its retracements.

然而，其他人則認為，這一轉向目前正在被推遲，因為對比數據為政策制定者帶來了複雜的訊號。由於比特幣的交易價格仍在90,000 美元左右，市場已為下一步走勢做好了準備，一些交易員正在為波動性加大做好準備，因為一些交易員預計比特幣將繼續升至100,000 美元，而另一些交易員則從其回調中獲利。