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比特币反弹至 69,000 美元
Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the return of “Uptober” with its best weekly close in nearly five months and a visit to a familiar price level: $69,000.
比特币(BTC)以近五个月来最好的单周收盘价拉开了“Uptober”回归的序幕,并触及熟悉的价格水平:69,000 美元。
After a last-minute push sealed a weekly close to remember for BTC/USD, the largest cryptocurrency was back above $69,000 on Oct. 24.
在最后一刻推动 BTC/USD 创下每周收盘价后,这一最大的加密货币于 10 月 24 日回到 69,000 美元上方。
Bitcoin price 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
比特币价格 1 小时图。来源:TradingView
At just over $69,000, the close was Bitcoin’s highest since the start of June. Now, traders were eyeing a potential pullback before a return to upside momentum.
比特币收盘价略高于 69,000 美元,是 6 月初以来的最高收盘价。现在,交易员正在关注在恢复上行势头之前可能出现的回调。
In a dedicated thread on X, popular trader CrypNuevo noted nearby liquidity as the next BTC price hurdle to overcome.
在 X 的专门帖子中,受欢迎的交易员 CrypNuevo 指出,附近的流动性是下一个需要克服的 BTC 价格障碍。
“There is a major liquidation level and that's to the upside, exactly at $69.3k,” he noted.
“有一个主要的清算水平,而且是向上的,正好是 69,300 美元,”他指出。
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CrypNuevo/X
BTC 清算热图。来源:CrypNuevo/X
What happens next could cause bulls some temporary pain. For CrypNuevo, the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes, currently at $66,888, could see a retest.
接下来发生的事情可能会给多头带来一些暂时的痛苦。对于 CrypNuevo 来说,4 小时时间范围内的 50 周期指数移动平均线 (EMA) 目前为 66,888 美元,可能会重新测试。
“Ideally we can hold it, as well as holding the top part of the channel to confirm a breakout and a potential move higher,” he summarized.
“理想情况下,我们可以守住它,并守住通道的顶部,以确认突破和潜在的走高,”他总结道。
BTC/USD 4-hour chart with 50EMA. Source: TradingView
BTC/USD 4 小时图,50EMA。来源:TradingView
Analyzing relative strength index (RSI) levels, fellow trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades argued that Bitcoin needed to “lead” crypto markets into a sustained breakout.
在分析相对强弱指数(RSI)水平时,交易员兼分析师 Daan Crypto Trades 认为,比特币需要“引领”加密市场持续突破。
“The key for the bulls is to keep the momentum going from here,” he reiterated in another of his latest X posts.
“多头的关键是从现在开始保持势头,”他在最新的另一篇 X 帖子中重申。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
BTC/美元 1 周图表。资料来源:Daan Crypto Trades/X
Macro triggers simmer ahead of US election
美国大选前宏观触发因素酝酿
Another quiet week in terms of US macroeconomic data leaves unemployment numbers as the key event for crypto and risk-asset traders.
美国宏观经济数据又迎来平静的一周,失业数据成为加密货币和风险资产交易者的关键事件。
Initial jobless claims, due on Oct. 24, will come a day after the Federal Reserve’s latest update on economic conditions known as the “Beige Book.”
首次申请失业救济人数将于 10 月 24 日公布,该数据将在美联储发布名为“褐皮书”的最新经济状况更新的第二天公布。
Inflation continues as a major topic of conversation, but in recent weeks, stocks have led a risk-asset rally which has ignored resurgent inflationary signals.
通货膨胀仍然是人们谈论的主要话题,但最近几周,股市引领风险资产上涨,而忽视了通胀复苏的信号。
“Supercore inflation is now rebounding after materially falling in the first half of 2023. At the same time, core CPI inflation rose to 3.3% marking the first increase since March 2023,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in its recent X analysis.
“超级核心通胀率在 2023 年上半年大幅下降后正在反弹。与此同时,核心 CPI 通胀率升至 3.3%,这是自 2023 年 3 月以来的首次上升,”交易资源 The Koheissi Letter 在其最近的 X 分析中指出。
Kobeissi referenced both earnings season and the US Presidential Election, now just two weeks away, as likely to shape market sentiment in the short term.
科比西提到,财报季和距离现在仅两周的美国总统选举可能会在短期内影响市场情绪。
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
美联储目标利率概率。资料来源:芝商所
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the Fed’s next dedicated meeting on Nov. 7 — a mere two days after the election — at more than 90% at the time of writing.
截至撰写本文时,芝加哥商品交易所集团 FedWatch 工具的最新数据显示,美联储在 11 月 7 日(大选后仅两天)下一次专门会议上降息 0.25% 的可能性超过 90%。
“Dollar is rising sharply in anticipation of this,” Matthew Dixon, CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, told X followers in part of a recent post on the topic.
加密货币评级平台 Evai 的首席执行官 Matthew Dixon 在最近一篇有关该主题的帖子中对 X 关注者表示:“由于预期这一点,美元正在大幅上涨。”
Bitcoin’s recent moves have placed an entire seven months of BTC price action in focus.
比特币最近的走势让整整七个月的比特币价格走势成为焦点。
Since hitting all-time highs in March, BTC/USD has been wedged within a downward-sloping channel, offering a succession of lower highs and lower lows — until now.
自 3 月份触及历史高点以来,比特币/美元一直处于向下倾斜的通道内,提供了一系列较低的高点和较低的低点 - 直到现在。
As Cointelegraph continues to report, daily timeframes finally saw a candle close above channel resistance this weekend, and the weekly close reinforced the breakout signal.
正如 Cointelegraph 继续报道的那样,本周末日线图终于看到蜡烛收盘价高于通道阻力位,而周收盘价则强化了突破信号。
What should be next, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital says, is “at least” $70,000.
著名交易员兼分析师 Rekt Capital 表示,下一步应该是“至少”70,000 美元。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
BTC/美元 1 周图表。资料来源:Rekt Capital/X
Not everyone, however, agrees that Bitcoin has left the channel behind once and for all.
然而,并非所有人都认为比特币已经一劳永逸地抛弃了这一渠道。
“7 month inverted expanding triangle continues to form,” veteran trader Peter Brandt commented on a chart which formed part of an X thread on Bitcoin published on Oct. 21, after the weekly close.
“7 个月的倒扩张三角形继续形成,”资深交易员 Peter Brandt 在 10 月 21 日每周收盘后发布的一张图表上评论道,该图表构成了比特币 X 线的一部分。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X
BTC/美元 1 周图表。来源:Peter Brandt/X
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showing liquidity levels over the past six months confirms that the bulk of asks currently sits just above $70,000. Further resistance is visible near $72,000.
监控资源 CoinGlass 的数据显示过去六个月的流动性水平,证实目前大部分要价略高于 70,000 美元。进一步的阻力位在 72,000 美元附近。
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
BTC 清算热图(截图)。来源:CoinGlass
As Bitcoin sees record levels of open interest accompanying its ascent to $69,000, some market observers are already cautious.
随着比特币的未平仓头寸创下历史新高,并升至 69,000 美元,一些市场观察人士已经持谨慎态度。
In one of its latest Quicktake blog posts on Oct. 19, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned that leverage was increasing at a worrying rate.
链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 在 10 月 19 日最新的 Quicktake 博客文章中警告称,杠杆率正在以令人担忧的速度增加。
“Leverage in the derivatives market has always been recognized as a key factor that, while helping traders
“衍生品市场的杠杆一直被认为是一个关键因素,在帮助交易者的同时
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