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比特幣反彈至 69,000 美元
Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the return of “Uptober” with its best weekly close in nearly five months and a visit to a familiar price level: $69,000.
比特幣(BTC)以近五個月來最好的單週收盤價拉開了「Uptober」回歸的序幕,並觸及熟悉的價格水平:69,000 美元。
After a last-minute push sealed a weekly close to remember for BTC/USD, the largest cryptocurrency was back above $69,000 on Oct. 24.
在最後一刻推動 BTC/USD 創下每週收盤價後,這最大的加密貨幣於 10 月 24 日回到 69,000 美元上方。
Bitcoin price 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
比特幣價格 1 小時圖表。來源:TradingView
At just over $69,000, the close was Bitcoin’s highest since the start of June. Now, traders were eyeing a potential pullback before a return to upside momentum.
比特幣收盤價略高於 69,000 美元,是 6 月初以來的最高收盤價。現在,交易員正在關注在恢復上行勢頭之前可能出現的回調。
In a dedicated thread on X, popular trader CrypNuevo noted nearby liquidity as the next BTC price hurdle to overcome.
在 X 的專門貼文中,受歡迎的交易員 CrypNuevo 指出,附近的流動性是下一個需要克服的 BTC 價格障礙。
“There is a major liquidation level and that's to the upside, exactly at $69.3k,” he noted.
「有一個主要的清算水平,而且是向上的,正好是 69,300 美元,」他指出。
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CrypNuevo/X
BTC 清算熱圖。來源:CrypNuevo/X
What happens next could cause bulls some temporary pain. For CrypNuevo, the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes, currently at $66,888, could see a retest.
接下來發生的事情可能會為多頭帶來一些暫時的痛苦。對於 CrypNuevo 來說,4 小時時間範圍內的 50 週期指數移動平均線 (EMA) 目前為 66,888 美元,可能會重新測試。
“Ideally we can hold it, as well as holding the top part of the channel to confirm a breakout and a potential move higher,” he summarized.
「理想情況下,我們可以守住它,並守住通道的頂部,以確認突破和潛在的走高,」他總結道。
BTC/USD 4-hour chart with 50EMA. Source: TradingView
BTC/USD 4 小時圖,50EMA。來源:TradingView
Analyzing relative strength index (RSI) levels, fellow trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades argued that Bitcoin needed to “lead” crypto markets into a sustained breakout.
在分析相對強弱指數(RSI)水準時,交易員兼分析師 Daan Crypto Trades 認為,比特幣需要「引領」加密市場持續突破。
“The key for the bulls is to keep the momentum going from here,” he reiterated in another of his latest X posts.
「多頭的關鍵是從現在開始保持勢頭,」他在最新的另一篇 X 帖子中重申。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
BTC/美元 1 週圖表。來源:Daan Crypto Trades/X
Macro triggers simmer ahead of US election
美國大選前宏觀觸發因素醞釀
Another quiet week in terms of US macroeconomic data leaves unemployment numbers as the key event for crypto and risk-asset traders.
美國宏觀經濟數據又迎來平靜的一周,失業數據成為加密貨幣和風險資產交易者的關鍵事件。
Initial jobless claims, due on Oct. 24, will come a day after the Federal Reserve’s latest update on economic conditions known as the “Beige Book.”
首次申請失業救濟人數將於 10 月 24 日公佈,該數據將在聯準會發布名為「褐皮書」的最新經濟狀況更新的第二天公佈。
Inflation continues as a major topic of conversation, but in recent weeks, stocks have led a risk-asset rally which has ignored resurgent inflationary signals.
通膨仍然是人們談論的主要話題,但最近幾週,股市引領風險資產上漲,而忽略了通膨復甦的訊號。
“Supercore inflation is now rebounding after materially falling in the first half of 2023. At the same time, core CPI inflation rose to 3.3% marking the first increase since March 2023,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in its recent X analysis.
「超級核心通膨率在2023 年上半年大幅下降後正在反彈。與此同時,核心CPI 通膨率升至3.3%,這是自2023 年3 月以來的首次上升,」交易資源The Koheissi Letter 在其最近的X 分析中指出。
Kobeissi referenced both earnings season and the US Presidential Election, now just two weeks away, as likely to shape market sentiment in the short term.
科比西提到,財報季和距離現在只有兩週的美國總統選舉可能會在短期內影響市場情緒。
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
聯準會目標利率機率。資料來源:芝商所
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the Fed’s next dedicated meeting on Nov. 7 — a mere two days after the election — at more than 90% at the time of writing.
截至撰寫本文時,芝加哥商品交易所集團 FedWatch 工具的最新數據顯示,聯準會在 11 月 7 日(大選後僅兩天)下一次專門會議上降息 0.25% 的可能性超過 90%。
“Dollar is rising sharply in anticipation of this,” Matthew Dixon, CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, told X followers in part of a recent post on the topic.
加密貨幣評級平台 Evai 的首席執行官 Matthew Dixon 在最近一篇有關該主題的帖子中對 X 追隨者表示:“由於預期這一點,美元正在大幅上漲。”
Bitcoin’s recent moves have placed an entire seven months of BTC price action in focus.
比特幣最近的走勢讓整整七個月的比特幣價格走勢成為焦點。
Since hitting all-time highs in March, BTC/USD has been wedged within a downward-sloping channel, offering a succession of lower highs and lower lows — until now.
自 3 月觸及歷史高點以來,比特幣/美元一直處於向下傾斜的通道內,提供了一系列較低的高點和較低的低點 - 直到現在。
As Cointelegraph continues to report, daily timeframes finally saw a candle close above channel resistance this weekend, and the weekly close reinforced the breakout signal.
正如 Cointelegraph 繼續報導的那樣,本週末日線圖終於看到蠟燭收盤價高於通道阻力位,而周收盤價則強化了突破信號。
What should be next, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital says, is “at least” $70,000.
著名交易員兼分析師 Rekt Capital 表示,下一步應該是「至少」7 萬美元。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
BTC/美元 1 週圖表。來源:Rekt Capital/X
Not everyone, however, agrees that Bitcoin has left the channel behind once and for all.
然而,並非所有人都認為比特幣已經一勞永逸地拋棄了這個管道。
“7 month inverted expanding triangle continues to form,” veteran trader Peter Brandt commented on a chart which formed part of an X thread on Bitcoin published on Oct. 21, after the weekly close.
「7 個月的倒擴張三角形繼續形成,」資深交易員 Peter Brandt 在 10 月 21 日每週收盤後發布的一張圖表上評論道,該圖表構成了比特幣 X 線的一部分。
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X
BTC/美元 1 週圖表。來源:Peter Brandt/X
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showing liquidity levels over the past six months confirms that the bulk of asks currently sits just above $70,000. Further resistance is visible near $72,000.
監控資源 CoinGlass 的數據顯示過去六個月的流動性水平,證實目前大部分要價略高於 7 萬美元。進一步的阻力位在 72,000 美元附近。
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
BTC 清算熱圖(截圖)。來源:CoinGlass
As Bitcoin sees record levels of open interest accompanying its ascent to $69,000, some market observers are already cautious.
隨著比特幣的未平倉部位創下歷史新高,並升至 69,000 美元,一些市場觀察家已經持謹慎態度。
In one of its latest Quicktake blog posts on Oct. 19, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned that leverage was increasing at a worrying rate.
鏈上分析平台 CryptoQuant 在 10 月 19 日最新的 Quicktake 部落格文章中警告稱,槓桿率正在以令人擔憂的速度增加。
“Leverage in the derivatives market has always been recognized as a key factor that, while helping traders
「衍生性商品市場的槓桿一直被認為是一個關鍵因素,在幫助交易者的同時
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