拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）预测

随着比特币的波动约为82500美元，一波乐观的浪潮席卷了加密赛。劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal），前高盛（Goldman Sachs）的前任主管，宏伟宗教信仰的关键人物

As Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $82,500, kicking off a wave of optimism in the cryptosphere, former Goldman Sachs executive and macrofinance key figure, Raoul Pal, is adding another stone to the pond. According to him, Bitcoin is about to emerge from its correction phase to embark on a new ascent.

随着比特币（BTC）的价格徘徊在82,500美元左右，在加密赛上启动了一波乐观，前高盛的高盛主管和宏观力量关键人物拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）正在为池塘增添另一个石头。据他说，比特币将从其更正阶段出现，以进行新的攀登。

What does Pal predict? An explosion in prices, fueled by a little-known indicator to the general public: global liquidity. But behind these forecasts lie subtle mechanisms, where time, economic data, and market psychology intertwine.

PAL预测什么？价格爆炸，这是鲜为人知的指标向普通大众：全球流动性。但是这些预测的背后是微妙的机制，在这种机制中，时间，经济数据和市场心理学交织在一起。

Global Liquidity: The Invisible Fuel of Bitcoin

全球流动性：比特币的无形燃料

While Bitcoin is set to experience its worst quarterly close, at least in terms of candlestick analysis, Pal is not relying on the usual technical indicators. His obsession? The global money supply (M2), this barometer of liquidity circulating in the global economy.

尽管比特币设置为季度最糟糕的季度，但至少在烛台分析方面，PAL并不依赖于通常的技术指标。他的痴迷？全球货币供应（M2），这种流动性在全球经济中流通。

According to his analyses, Bitcoin would follow the fluctuations of this flow with a lag of 10 weeks. Yet, since the end of 2024, the M2 curve has made a remarkable rebound. Conclusion: the awakening of Bitcoin would be imminent. “The countdown has begun”, he asserts on X, addressing his 1.1 million followers.

根据他的分析，比特币将遵循这种流动的波动，滞后10周。然而，自2024年底以来，M2曲线取得了非凡的反弹。结论：比特币的觉醒将是即将发生的。他断言X，向他的110万追随者讲话，“倒计时已经开始”。

An unyielding logic, but not universal. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at GMI, suggests a slightly different time frame: 12 weeks. For him, the local low of Bitcoin would be this very week, before a V-shaped recovery. Two visions, one scenario: the end of stagnation.

不屈的逻辑，但不是普遍的。 GMI宏观研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）提出了一个略有不同的时间范围：12周。对他来说，当地的比特币低点是这周，在V形恢复之前。两种幻象，一种情况：停滞的终结。

However, a doubt remains. How can a decentralized asset like Bitcoin be so sensitive to centralized liquidity injections? The answer lies in its hybrid status: both a safe haven and a risky asset. When central banks flood the markets, part of this fresh money inevitably spills into cryptos. A phenomenon amplified by the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, discreet bridges between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem.

但是，仍然存在疑问。像比特币这样的分散资产如何对集中流动性注射如此敏感？答案在于其混合状态：避风港和风险资产。当中央银行淹没市场时，这笔新鲜资金的一部分不可避免地会溢出到加密货币中。通过日益增长的比特币ETF，传统金融与加密生态系统之间的谨慎桥梁的划分，这种现象扩大了。

Bitcoin Price: $210,000… and After? Pal’s Logarithmic Equation

比特币价格：$ 210,000…和之后？ PAL的对数方程

If liquidity sets the tempo, prices dance to a much more ambitious score. Pal does not mince words: his logarithmic regression model projects a cyclical peak of at least $210,000. That’s a multiplication of 2.5 compared to current prices. But the most surprising part lies in its high ranges: $412,000, or even $805,000. Numbers that will make skeptics smile… and early adopters dream.

如果流动性设定了节奏，那么价格将持续更加雄心勃勃。 PAL并没有刺激词：他的对数回归模型的周期性高峰至少为210,000美元。与当前价格相比，这是2.5的乘法。但最令人惊讶的部分在于其高范围：412,000美元，甚至$ 805,000。会使怀疑论者微笑的数字……早期的采用者梦dream以求。

This regression channel, a favorite tool of chartists, allows visualizing long-term trends while smoothing out transient volatilities. Currently, Bitcoin is nearly at the average of the channel (red line). But as Pal reminds us, past bubbles have often seen prices burst one or two standard deviations above this base. A scenario that will depend on the intensity of the next bullish cycle.

这种回归渠道是宪章主义者最喜欢的工具，可以看到长期趋势，同时平滑瞬态波动。目前，比特币几乎处于频道（红线）的平均值。但是正如帕尔提醒我们的那样，过去的气泡经常看到价格爆发了一个或两个标准的偏差。一个场景将取决于下一个看涨周期的强度。

One unknown remains: the timing. Because while macro indicators point toward acceleration, crypto markets remember the recent crashes. The recent drop of 2.25% in 24 hours reminds us that the path to the peaks will be chaotic. For Pal, these corrections are just “normal jolts” in a landscape where global liquidity, boosted by a loosening of financial conditions, will soon regain dominance.

一个未知的遗物：时机。因为尽管宏指标指向加速度，但加密市场还记得最近发生的崩溃。最近在24小时内下降了2.25％，这使我们想起了通往峰的路径将是混乱的。对于PAL而言，这些更正只是在一个景观中“正常的震动”，在这种景观中，由于财务状况的放松，全球流动性将很快恢复主导地位。