拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）預測

隨著比特幣的波動約為82500美元，一波樂觀的浪潮席捲了加密賽。勞爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal），前高盛（Goldman Sachs）的前任主管，宏偉宗教信仰的關鍵人物

As Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $82,500, kicking off a wave of optimism in the cryptosphere, former Goldman Sachs executive and macrofinance key figure, Raoul Pal, is adding another stone to the pond. According to him, Bitcoin is about to emerge from its correction phase to embark on a new ascent.

隨著比特幣（BTC）的價格徘徊在82,500美元左右，在加密賽上啟動了一波樂觀，前高盛的高盛主管和宏觀力量關鍵人物拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）正在為池塘增添另一個石頭。據他說，比特幣將從其更正階段出現，以進行新的攀登。

What does Pal predict? An explosion in prices, fueled by a little-known indicator to the general public: global liquidity. But behind these forecasts lie subtle mechanisms, where time, economic data, and market psychology intertwine.

PAL預測什麼？價格爆炸，這是鮮為人知的指標向普通大眾：全球流動性。但是這些預測的背後是微妙的機制，在這種機制中，時間，經濟數據和市場心理學交織在一起。

Global Liquidity: The Invisible Fuel of Bitcoin

全球流動性：比特幣的無形燃料

While Bitcoin is set to experience its worst quarterly close, at least in terms of candlestick analysis, Pal is not relying on the usual technical indicators. His obsession? The global money supply (M2), this barometer of liquidity circulating in the global economy.

儘管比特幣設置為季度最糟糕的季度，但至少在燭台分析方面，PAL並不依賴於通常的技術指標。他的痴迷？全球貨幣供應（M2），這種流動性在全球經濟中流通。

According to his analyses, Bitcoin would follow the fluctuations of this flow with a lag of 10 weeks. Yet, since the end of 2024, the M2 curve has made a remarkable rebound. Conclusion: the awakening of Bitcoin would be imminent. “The countdown has begun”, he asserts on X, addressing his 1.1 million followers.

根據他的分析，比特幣將遵循這種流動的波動，滯後10週。然而，自2024年底以來，M2曲線取得了非凡的反彈。結論：比特幣的覺醒將是即將發生的。他斷言X，向他的110萬追隨者講話，“倒計時已經開始”。

An unyielding logic, but not universal. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at GMI, suggests a slightly different time frame: 12 weeks. For him, the local low of Bitcoin would be this very week, before a V-shaped recovery. Two visions, one scenario: the end of stagnation.

不屈的邏輯，但不是普遍的。 GMI宏觀研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）提出了一個略有不同的時間範圍：12週。對他來說，當地的比特幣低點是這週，在V形恢復之前。兩種幻象，一種情況：停滯的終結。

However, a doubt remains. How can a decentralized asset like Bitcoin be so sensitive to centralized liquidity injections? The answer lies in its hybrid status: both a safe haven and a risky asset. When central banks flood the markets, part of this fresh money inevitably spills into cryptos. A phenomenon amplified by the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, discreet bridges between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem.

但是，仍然存在疑問。像比特幣這樣的分散資產如何對集中流動性注射如此敏感？答案在於其混合狀態：避風港和風險資產。當中央銀行淹沒市場時，這筆新鮮資金的一部分不可避免地會溢出到加密貨幣中。通過日益增長的比特幣ETF，傳統金融與加密生態系統之間的謹慎橋樑的劃分，這種現象擴大了。

Bitcoin Price: $210,000… and After? Pal’s Logarithmic Equation

比特幣價格：$ 210,000…和之後？ PAL的對數方程

If liquidity sets the tempo, prices dance to a much more ambitious score. Pal does not mince words: his logarithmic regression model projects a cyclical peak of at least $210,000. That’s a multiplication of 2.5 compared to current prices. But the most surprising part lies in its high ranges: $412,000, or even $805,000. Numbers that will make skeptics smile… and early adopters dream.

如果流動性設定了節奏，那麼價格將持續更加雄心勃勃。 PAL並沒有刺激詞：他的對數回歸模型的周期性高峰至少為210,000美元。與當前價格相比，這是2.5的乘法。但最令人驚訝的部分在於其高範圍：412,000美元，甚至$ 805,000。會使懷疑論者微笑的數字……早期的採用者夢dream以求。

This regression channel, a favorite tool of chartists, allows visualizing long-term trends while smoothing out transient volatilities. Currently, Bitcoin is nearly at the average of the channel (red line). But as Pal reminds us, past bubbles have often seen prices burst one or two standard deviations above this base. A scenario that will depend on the intensity of the next bullish cycle.

這種回歸渠道是憲章主義者最喜歡的工具，可以看到長期趨勢，同時平滑瞬態波動。目前，比特幣幾乎處於頻道（紅線）的平均值。但是正如帕爾提醒我們的那樣，過去的氣泡經常看到價格爆發了一個或兩個標準的偏差。一個場景將取決於下一個看漲週期的強度。

One unknown remains: the timing. Because while macro indicators point toward acceleration, crypto markets remember the recent crashes. The recent drop of 2.25% in 24 hours reminds us that the path to the peaks will be chaotic. For Pal, these corrections are just “normal jolts” in a landscape where global liquidity, boosted by a loosening of financial conditions, will soon regain dominance.

一個未知的遺物：時機。因為儘管宏指標指向加速度，但加密市場還記得最近發生的崩潰。最近在24小時內下降了2.25％，這使我們想起了通往峰的路徑將是混亂的。對於PAL而言，這些更正只是在一個景觀中“正常的震動”，在這種景觀中，由於財務狀況的放鬆，全球流動性將很快恢復主導地位。