比特币（BTC）价格正在崩溃，但真正的运动很可能来自其他地方

尽管市场正在吸收迅速下降的速度，但一些分析师已经押注了另一个引擎：中央银行的流动性大量回报。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been making headlines for a rapid price decline, but the real movement might well come from elsewhere. While the market is absorbing a rapid decline, some analysts are already betting on another engine: the massive return of liquidity from central banks. Behind the numbers, a global monetary dynamic is forming, far more decisive than the ongoing correction. BTC is fluctuating, but the upcoming capital influx could rewrite everything.

比特币（BTC）一直是价格迅速下降的头条新闻，但真正的运动很可能来自其他地方。尽管市场正在吸收迅速下降的速度，但一些分析师已经押注了另一个引擎：中央银行的流动性大量回报。在数字后面，全球货币动态正在形成，比持续的校正更具决定性。 BTC正在波动，但即将到来的资本涌入可以改写所有内容。

An immediate correction and its triggers

立即进行更正及其触发器

Bitcoin experienced a significant drop between March 26 and March 29. Indeed, the queen of crypto fell from $88,060 to $82,036, representing a 7% loss over three days. This correction resulted in the elimination of $158 million in long positions, confirming an overheating of the derivatives markets and a high exposure to leverage.

比特币在3月26日至3月29日之间的显着下降。的确，加密货币女王从88,060美元下降到82,036美元，在三天内损失了7％。这种更正导致消除了1.58亿美元的长位置，证实了衍生品市场的过热和高杠杆的敞口。

This setback comes as gold, a traditional safe haven in times of turbulence, hit a historic record of $3,087, triggering a new wave of comparisons between the precious metal and Bitcoin.

这种挫折是黄金是一种传统的避风港，在动荡时期，历史悠久的纪录为3,087美元，引发了贵金属和比特币之间的新浪潮。

As analyst Caleb Franzen points out:

正如分析师Caleb Franzen指出的那样：

Gold has experienced an uninterrupted upward trend since mid-February, while Bitcoin is now moving counter to that.

自2月中旬以来，Gold经历了不间断的上升趋势，而比特币现在正在与之相反。

The key highlights of this correction include:

此更正的关键亮点包括：

* This technical pullback, while spectacular, fits into a climate of anticipation ahead of major monetary policy announcements. It also exposes a structural fragility linked to investors’ excess confidence in the futures markets.

*这种技术回调虽然壮观，但在主要的货币政策公告之前，符合预期的气氛。它还暴露了与投资者对期货市场过多信心有关的结构脆弱性。

* The long positions on BTC, massively fueled by recent rallies, were swept away in a brutal readjustment movement.

*在最近的集会中，BTC上的长位置席卷了残酷的调整运动。

* This correction phase, far from signaling a fundamental trend, could thus represent a differentiatial in a larger cycle still dictated by global economic policies.

*因此，这个校正阶段远没有信号表明基本趋势，因此可以代表一个较大的周期中的区分，但仍由全球经济政策决定。

The monetary leverage, potential catalyst for the next impulse

货币杠杆，下一次冲动的潜在催化剂

In the face of this volatility, some analysts adopt a decidedly different perspective. For them, this drop in Bitcoin might just be background noise in a broader environment where flexible monetary policies are ready to take center stage again.

面对这种波动，一些分析师采用了绝对不同的观点。对他们来说，比特币的下降可能只是在更广泛的环境中的背景噪音，在更广泛的环境中，灵活的货币政策准备好再次进入中心舞台。

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, particularly defends the idea that the current correction is “insignificant” compared to what he describes as an upcoming “tsunami of liquidity.” In his analysis, he claims that “it’s not the drop to $60,000 that worries me. What matters is that central banks, starting with the Fed, will restart monetary printing.”

Bitmex前首席执行官Arthur Hayes特别捍卫了与即将到来的“流动性海啸”相比，目前的更正“微不足道”的想法。在他的分析中，他声称“跌至60,000美元的跌至60,000美元都让我担心。重要的是，从美联储开始，将重新启动货币印刷。”

On the platform X (formerly Twitter), analyst Mihaimihale states on March 10, 2025, that “tax cuts and lower interest rates are necessary to revive the economy.” Furthermore, he estimates that last year’s growth was primarily based on unsustainable public spending in the long term.

分析师Mihaimihale在2025年3月10日在平台X（以前是Twitter）上说：“减税和较低的利率对于恢复经济是必要的。”此外，他估计，从长远来看，去年的增长主要基于不可持续的公共支出。

Alexandre Vasarhelyi concurs with this view but nuances the short-term impact of financial innovation. According to him, “whether it’s $77,000 or $65,000, it matters little: the story is one of still embryonic growth.”

亚历山大·瓦萨哈利（Alexandre Vasarhelyi）同意这种观点，但会削减金融创新的短期影响。据他说：“无论是77,000美元还是65,000美元，这无关紧要：这个故事仍然是胚胎的增长之一。”

The macroeconomic signals seem to strengthen this hypothesis. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark rate to 4% or less by the end of July has risen to 50%, up from just 40% the previous week.

宏观经济信号似乎加强了这一假设。根据CME FedWatch工具的数据，到7月底，美联储将其基准利率降低到4％或更低的可能性已上升至50％，高于上周仅40％。

This expectation of a rate cut is accompanied by growing pressure for monetary stimulus, as global growth shows signs of slowing down.

降低速率的这种期望伴随着货币刺激的压力越来越大，因为全球增长显示了放缓的迹象。

Moreover, political initiatives such as the U.S. executive order on the establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin or the tokenization of real assets (RWA) led by major institutions like BlackRock reinforce the idea of an increasing integration of Bitcoin into long-term economic strategies.

此外，政治倡议，例如美国行政命令建立比特币战略储备或由贝莱德（BlackRock）等主要机构领导的真实资产（RWA）的战略储备（RWA）加强了将比特币融入长期经济战略的想法。

If this scenario is confirmed, the current contraction of the crypto market could be quickly erased by a recovery driven by capital influx. Bitcoin’s ability to reposition itself as a store of value against inflation could be enhanced by this new injection of global liquidity. In the longer term, these dynamics could also stimulate institutional investors’ appetite for crypto-backed products, further consolidating Bitcoin’s place in the global financial universe.

如果确认了这种情况，则可以通过资本涌入驱动的回收率迅速消除加密货币市场的当前收缩。通过这种新的全球流动性注入，可以增强比特币将自己重新定位为抵抗通货膨胀的价值的能力。从长远来看，这些动态还可以刺激机构投资者对加密支持产品的需求，从而进一步巩固了比特币在全球金融宇宙中的地位。