比特幣（BTC）價格正在崩潰，但真正的運動很可能來自其他地方

儘管市場正在吸收迅速下降的速度，但一些分析師已經押注了另一個引擎：中央銀行的流動性大量回報。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been making headlines for a rapid price decline, but the real movement might well come from elsewhere. While the market is absorbing a rapid decline, some analysts are already betting on another engine: the massive return of liquidity from central banks. Behind the numbers, a global monetary dynamic is forming, far more decisive than the ongoing correction. BTC is fluctuating, but the upcoming capital influx could rewrite everything.

比特幣（BTC）一直是價格迅速下降的頭條新聞，但真正的運動很可能來自其他地方。儘管市場正在吸收迅速下降的速度，但一些分析師已經押注了另一個引擎：中央銀行的流動性大量回報。在數字後面，全球貨幣動態正在形成，比持續的校正更具決定性。 BTC正在波動，但即將到來的資本湧入可以改寫所有內容。

An immediate correction and its triggers

立即進行更正及其觸發器

Bitcoin experienced a significant drop between March 26 and March 29. Indeed, the queen of crypto fell from $88,060 to $82,036, representing a 7% loss over three days. This correction resulted in the elimination of $158 million in long positions, confirming an overheating of the derivatives markets and a high exposure to leverage.

比特幣在3月26日至3月29日之間的顯著下降。的確，加密貨幣女王從88,060美元下降到82,036美元，在三天內損失了7％。這種更正導致消除了1.58億美元的長位置，證實了衍生品市場的過熱和高槓桿的敞口。

This setback comes as gold, a traditional safe haven in times of turbulence, hit a historic record of $3,087, triggering a new wave of comparisons between the precious metal and Bitcoin.

這種挫折是黃金是一種傳統的避風港，在動盪時期，歷史悠久的紀錄為3,087美元，引發了貴金屬和比特幣之間的新浪潮。

As analyst Caleb Franzen points out:

正如分析師Caleb Franzen指出的那樣：

Gold has experienced an uninterrupted upward trend since mid-February, while Bitcoin is now moving counter to that.

自2月中旬以來，Gold經歷了不間斷的上升趨勢，而比特幣現在正在與之相反。

The key highlights of this correction include:

此更正的關鍵亮點包括：

* This technical pullback, while spectacular, fits into a climate of anticipation ahead of major monetary policy announcements. It also exposes a structural fragility linked to investors’ excess confidence in the futures markets.

*這種技術回調雖然壯觀，但在主要的貨幣政策公告之前，符合預期的氣氛。它還暴露了與投資者對期貨市場過多信心有關的結構脆弱性。

* The long positions on BTC, massively fueled by recent rallies, were swept away in a brutal readjustment movement.

*在最近的集會中，BTC上的長位置席捲了殘酷的調整運動。

* This correction phase, far from signaling a fundamental trend, could thus represent a differentiatial in a larger cycle still dictated by global economic policies.

*因此，這個校正階段遠沒有信號表明基本趨勢，因此可以代表一個較大的周期中的區分，但仍由全球經濟政策決定。

The monetary leverage, potential catalyst for the next impulse

貨幣槓桿，下一次沖動的潛在催化劑

In the face of this volatility, some analysts adopt a decidedly different perspective. For them, this drop in Bitcoin might just be background noise in a broader environment where flexible monetary policies are ready to take center stage again.

面對這種波動，一些分析師採用了絕對不同的觀點。對他們來說，比特幣的下降可能只是在更廣泛的環境中的背景噪音，在更廣泛的環境中，靈活的貨幣政策準備好再次進入中心舞台。

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, particularly defends the idea that the current correction is “insignificant” compared to what he describes as an upcoming “tsunami of liquidity.” In his analysis, he claims that “it’s not the drop to $60,000 that worries me. What matters is that central banks, starting with the Fed, will restart monetary printing.”

Bitmex前首席執行官Arthur Hayes特別捍衛了與即將到來的“流動性海嘯”相比，目前的更正“微不足道”的想法。在他的分析中，他聲稱“跌至60,000美元的跌至60,000美元都讓我擔心。重要的是，從美聯儲開始，將重新啟動貨幣印刷。”

On the platform X (formerly Twitter), analyst Mihaimihale states on March 10, 2025, that “tax cuts and lower interest rates are necessary to revive the economy.” Furthermore, he estimates that last year’s growth was primarily based on unsustainable public spending in the long term.

分析師Mihaimihale在2025年3月10日在平台X（以前是Twitter）上說：“減稅和較低的利率對於恢復經濟是必要的。”此外，他估計，從長遠來看，去年的增長主要基於不可持續的公共支出。

Alexandre Vasarhelyi concurs with this view but nuances the short-term impact of financial innovation. According to him, “whether it’s $77,000 or $65,000, it matters little: the story is one of still embryonic growth.”

亞歷山大·瓦薩哈利（Alexandre Vasarhelyi）同意這種觀點，但會削減金融創新的短期影響。據他說：“無論是77,000美元還是65,000美元，這無關緊要：這個故事仍然是胚胎的增長之一。”

The macroeconomic signals seem to strengthen this hypothesis. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark rate to 4% or less by the end of July has risen to 50%, up from just 40% the previous week.

宏觀經濟信號似乎加強了這一假設。根據CME FedWatch工具的數據，到7月底，美聯儲將其基準利率降低到4％或更低的可能性已上升至50％，高於上週僅40％。

This expectation of a rate cut is accompanied by growing pressure for monetary stimulus, as global growth shows signs of slowing down.

降低速率的這種期望伴隨著貨幣刺激的壓力越來越大，因為全球增長顯示了放緩的跡象。

Moreover, political initiatives such as the U.S. executive order on the establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin or the tokenization of real assets (RWA) led by major institutions like BlackRock reinforce the idea of an increasing integration of Bitcoin into long-term economic strategies.

此外，政治倡議，例如美國行政命令建立比特幣戰略儲備或由貝萊德（BlackRock）等主要機構領導的真實資產（RWA）的戰略儲備（RWA）加強了將比特幣融入長期經濟戰略的想法。

If this scenario is confirmed, the current contraction of the crypto market could be quickly erased by a recovery driven by capital influx. Bitcoin’s ability to reposition itself as a store of value against inflation could be enhanced by this new injection of global liquidity. In the longer term, these dynamics could also stimulate institutional investors’ appetite for crypto-backed products, further consolidating Bitcoin’s place in the global financial universe.

如果確認了這種情況，則可以通過資本湧入驅動的回收率迅速消除加密貨幣市場的當前收縮。通過這種新的全球流動性注入，可以增強比特幣將自己重新定位為抵抗通貨膨脹的價值的能力。從長遠來看，這些動態還可以刺激機構投資者對加密支持產品的需求，從而進一步鞏固了比特幣在全球金融宇宙中的地位。