分析师：如果比特币 (BTC) 未能保持在 93,806 美元以上，其当前价值可能会暴跌近 27%

一位受欢迎的加密货币分析师发出警告，如果比特币失去关键支撑位，比特币可能会突然崩溃。

A popular crypto analyst is warning that Bitcoin could suddenly plummet by nearly 27% from its current value if it loses a key support level.

一位受欢迎的加密货币分析师警告称，如果比特币失去关键支撑位，其当前价值可能会突然暴跌近 27%。

Crypto trader Ali Martinez tells his 104,000 followers on the social media platform X that BTC could crash to as low as $70,000 if it fails to remain trading above $93,806.

加密货币交易员 Ali Martinez 在社交媒体平台 X 上告诉他的 104,000 名粉丝，如果 BTC 未能保持在 93,806 美元之上，其价格可能会跌至 70,000 美元。

The crypto analyst uses the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Realized Price Distribution (URPD) model to determine the key support levels. UTXO keeps track of the number of existing coins that last moved within a given price range.

加密货币分析师使用未花费交易输出（UTXO）已实现价格分布（URPD）模型来确定关键支撑位。 UTXO 跟踪最后在给定价格范围内移动的现有代币的数量。

“From an on-chain perspective, a Bitcoin price correction to $70,000 is possible, understanding that below $93,806, it is pretty much open air all the way down to $70,085.”

“从链上的角度来看，比特币价格有可能修正至 70,000 美元，因为低于 93,806 美元，比特币价格几乎可以一路下跌至 70,085 美元。”

The analyst notes that some investors are suddenly preparing for a bearish trend by sending their BTC to exchanges for possible selling.

这位分析师指出，一些投资者突然开始为看跌趋势做准备，将他们的比特币发送到交易所进行可能的出售。

“Some savvy investors appear to be aware of such a bearish scenario, and they have sent over 33,000 Bitcoin to exchanges over the past week, valued at more than $3.23 billion!”

“一些精明的投资者似乎意识到了这种看跌的情况，他们在过去一周向交易所发送了超过 33,000 个比特币，价值超过 32.3 亿美元！”

He also says other investors are already selling ahead of a possible collapse.

他还表示，其他投资者已经在可能崩溃之前抛售股票。

“Others are also booking profits. For instance, on December 23rd alone, more than $7.17 billion in Bitcoin profits were realized.”

“其他人也在预订利润。例如，仅 12 月 23 日这一天，比特币就实现了超过 71.7 亿美元的利润。”

He says bearish sentiment is further evident from a more than 13% decline in the number of traders betting on Bitcoin rallying using the top crypto exchange Binance.

他表示，使用顶级加密货币交易所 Binance 押注比特币反弹的交易者数量下降了 13% 以上，这进一步证明了看跌情绪。

“Moreover, the percentage of traders on Binance with open Bitcoin long positions recently dropped from 66.73% to 53.60%.”

“此外，币安上持有比特币多头头寸的交易者比例最近从 66.73% 下降至 53.60%。”

For the bearish outlook to flip bullish, the analyst says Bitcoin needs to convincingly reclaim $100,000 as support on the daily chart based on the In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) metric.

这位分析师表示，为了让看跌前景转为看涨，比特币需要令人信服地收回 10 万美元，作为基于价格周围货币进出 (IOMAP) 指标的日线图上的支撑。

The IOMAP classifies crypto addresses as either profiting, breaking even or losing money to determine support and resistance levels.

IOMAP 将加密地址分类为盈利、收支平衡或亏损，以确定支撑位和阻力位。

“Bitcoin recently broke below one of its most significant support zones at $97,300. So, for the bearish outlook to be invalidated, BTC must reclaim this critical area of support and, more importantly, sustain a daily close above $100,000!”

“比特币最近跌破了最重要的支撑区域之一 97,300 美元。因此，要使看跌前景失效，BTC 必须夺回这一关键支撑区域，更重要的是，维持每日收盘价高于 100,000 美元！”

However, the analyst says a reignited Bitcoin rally could send the flagship crypto asset to $168,500 based on the Mayer Multiple, an oscillator that uses several ratios between price and the 200-day moving average.

然而，分析师表示，根据梅耶倍数（使用价格与 200 天移动平均线之间的多个比率的震荡指标），比特币重新上涨可能会将这一旗舰加密资产推至 168,500 美元。

“If Bitcoin can sustain a daily close above $100,000, we could be looking at a new leg up toward $168,500.”

“如果比特币能够维持在 100,000 美元以上的日收盘价，我们可能会看到新的上涨趋势，达到 168,500 美元。”

Bitcoin is trading for $95,855 at time of writing, down 2.3% in the last 24 hours.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 95,855 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌 2.3%。

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