随着长期实现的上限冲动接近支撑水平，比特币（BTC）处于关键十字路口

比特币处于关键的十字路口，因为关键指标表明可能正在接近一个重要的转折点。长期指标和市场模式

Long-term indicators for Bitcoin (BTC) are converging at pivotal crossroads, hinting at a significant turning point for the leading cryptocurrency.

比特币（BTC）的长期指标正在关键十字路口收敛，这暗示了领先的加密货币的显着转折点。

As reported by crypto analytics firm Glassnode, the long-term realized cap impulse is nearing historically important support levels. This indicator, which measures the conviction of long-term Bitcoin holders, evaluates the momentum of realized capitalization, adjusted for long-term trends.

正如加密分析公司玻璃节的报道，长期实现的CAP Impulse正在接近历史上重要的支持水平。该指标衡量了长期比特币持有人的信念，它评估了已实现资本化的势头，并针对长期趋势进行了调整。

When this impulse reaches its lower support zone, it has coincided with major turning points for Bitcoin’s price action. At the time of reporting, the impulse sits at levels that previously preceded market recoveries in 2019 and late 2022.

当这种冲动达到其较低的支撑区时，它与比特币价格行动的主要转折点相吻合。在报告时，冲动处于先前在2019年和2022年底进行市场回收率之前的水平。

This presents a binary outcome for Bitcoin’s near future. If BTC manages to bounce positively from this support zone, it could indicate that long-term holders are maintaining their positions, potentially setting the stage for renewed accumulation and upward momentum.

这给比特币的不久的将来带来了二元结果。如果BTC设法从该支持区积极反弹，则可能表明长期持有人正在维持其位置，有可能为新的积累和向上的动力奠定基础。

However, a breakdown at this level might signal decreasing confidence among Bitcoin’s most resilient participants. Such a shift could trigger a more substantial correction in the market.

但是，该水平的细分可能表明比特币最有弹性参与者的信心下降。这样的转变可能会引发市场上更实质性的更正。

Technical Indicators Point Upward

技术指标向上指向

Recent technical analysis suggests Bitcoin may already be showing signs of recovery. A crypto strategist known as Cheds, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s fall below $80,000, notes that BTC appears to have broken out of a W pattern on the four-hour chart.

最近的技术分析表明，比特币可能已经显示出恢复的迹象。一位被称为Cheds的加密战略家，他正确地预测比特币低于80,000美元，指出BTC似乎在四小时的图表上脱离了W模式。

A W pattern typically signals a bullish reversal, suggesting that an asset has established a price floor after bouncing from key support twice. “We had a break of the W and then a throwback, a throwback being a bullish retest from above,” Cheds explained.

AW模式通常标志着看涨的逆转，这表明资产两次从钥匙支持中弹跳后已经建立了价格地面。 Cheds解释说：“我们遇到了W的休息，然后是回头路，回落是从上方重新测试的。”

The analyst believes Bitcoin will likely see higher prices as long as its immediate support level between $78,500 and $81,000 holds. “Regain $81,000 and we’re back in business,” Cheds stated.

该分析师认为，只要比特币的立即支撑水平在78,500美元至81,000美元之间，比特币的价格可能会更高。 Cheds说：“重新获得了81,000美元，我们又重新开始营业。”

Recent price action seems to support this view. Bitcoin started yesterday at $79,500, continuing a downtrend from before. The market soon reached oversold conditions, triggering a reversal when a golden cross formed on the MACD indicator.

最近的价格行动似乎支持了这一观点。比特币昨天以79,500美元的价格开始，从前一直处于下降趋势。市场很快达到了过多的条件，当MACD指标上形成金十字架时会引发逆转。

A stable uptrend formed, with Bitcoin ascending rapidly at first, then slowing in the later hours. The uptrend continued until Bitcoin tested resistance. Shortly after, Bitcoin grew beyond this resistance despite overbought conditions shown by the RSI.

稳定的上升趋势形成，比特币首先迅速上升，然后在后来的几个小时内放慢速度。上升趋势一直持续到比特币测试阻力为止。此后不久，尽管RSI表现出了过多的条件，但比特币的增长超出了这种阻力。

After some correction, Bitcoin broke above $83,000 and has since shown range-bound behavior, stabilizing near $83,500.

经过一定的更正，比特币打破了83,000美元，此后显示了距离界限的行为，稳定在$ 83,500。

Macroeconomic Factors at Play

宏观经济因素在起作用

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and well-known Bitcoin advocate, has issued a bold call to investors to “buy everything” as Bitcoin appears positioned for massive gains.

Bitmex和著名比特币倡导者的联合创始人Arthur Hayes已向投资者发出了大胆的呼吁，以“购买所有东西”，因为比特币似乎可以获得巨大的收益。

Hayes’s optimistic Bitcoin prediction stems from rising bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.5. He views this yield increase as a sign of financial stress that could prompt Federal Reserve intervention.

海斯乐观的比特币预测源于债券收益率上升，尤其是10年的国库收益率超过4.5。他认为这种收益率增加是财务压力的标志，可能会促使美联储干预。

It’s on like donkey kong. We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/KL3OSYfiMc

它像金刚。如果这样做，我们将在本周末获得更多的政策回应。我们即将以$ btc进入仅输入模式。 pic.twitter.com/kl3osyfimc

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 11, 2025

- 亚瑟·海斯（@cryptohayes）2025年4月11日

“We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for BTC,” Hayes wrote, expressing his belief that Bitcoin is on the verge of a prolonged upward trend.

海斯写道：“如果这样做的话，如果这样做的话，我们将在本周末得到更多的政策回应。我们将只进入BTC的模式。”他表达了他的信念，即比特币正处于延长上升趋势的边缘。

His sentiment aligns with recent remarks by Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve. Collins mentioned that markets are functioning well for now, but the central bank is ready to act if needed.

他的情绪与波士顿美联储主席苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）最近的讲话保持一致。柯林斯（Collins）提到市场目前运作良好，但中央银行准备在需要时采取行动。

She clarified that interest rate cuts are not the solution for liquidity challenges, noting, “The core interest rate tool we use for monetary policy is certainly not the only tool in the toolkit and probably not the best way to address challenges of liquidity or market functioning.”

她澄清说，降低利率并不是解决流动性挑战的解决方案，并指出：“我们用于货币政策的核心利率工具当然不是工具包中唯一的工具，也可能不是解决流动性或市场运作挑战的最佳方法。”

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