隨著長期實現的上限衝動接近支撐水平，比特幣（BTC）處於關鍵十字路口

比特幣處於關鍵的十字路口，因為關鍵指標表明可能正在接近一個重要的轉折點。長期指標和市場模式

Long-term indicators for Bitcoin (BTC) are converging at pivotal crossroads, hinting at a significant turning point for the leading cryptocurrency.

比特幣（BTC）的長期指標正在關鍵十字路口收斂，這暗示了領先的加密貨幣的顯著轉折點。

As reported by crypto analytics firm Glassnode, the long-term realized cap impulse is nearing historically important support levels. This indicator, which measures the conviction of long-term Bitcoin holders, evaluates the momentum of realized capitalization, adjusted for long-term trends.

正如加密分析公司玻璃節的報導，長期實現的CAP Impulse正在接近歷史上重要的支持水平。該指標衡量了長期比特幣持有人的信念，它評估了已實現資本化的勢頭，並針對長期趨勢進行了調整。

When this impulse reaches its lower support zone, it has coincided with major turning points for Bitcoin’s price action. At the time of reporting, the impulse sits at levels that previously preceded market recoveries in 2019 and late 2022.

當這種衝動達到其較低的支撐區時，它與比特幣價格行動的主要轉折點相吻合。在報告時，衝動處於先前在2019年和2022年底進行市場回收率之前的水平。

This presents a binary outcome for Bitcoin’s near future. If BTC manages to bounce positively from this support zone, it could indicate that long-term holders are maintaining their positions, potentially setting the stage for renewed accumulation and upward momentum.

這給比特幣的不久的將來帶來了二元結果。如果BTC設法從該支撐區積極反彈，則可能表明長期持有人正在保持其位置，有可能為新的積累和向上的動力奠定基礎。

However, a breakdown at this level might signal decreasing confidence among Bitcoin’s most resilient participants. Such a shift could trigger a more substantial correction in the market.

但是，該水平的細分可能表明比特幣最有彈性參與者的信心下降。這樣的轉變可能會引發市場上更實質性的更正。

Technical Indicators Point Upward

技術指標向上指向

Recent technical analysis suggests Bitcoin may already be showing signs of recovery. A crypto strategist known as Cheds, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s fall below $80,000, notes that BTC appears to have broken out of a W pattern on the four-hour chart.

最近的技術分析表明，比特幣可能已經顯示出恢復的跡象。一位被稱為Cheds的加密戰略家，他正確地預測比特幣低於80,000美元，指出BTC似乎在四小時的圖表上脫離了W模式。

A W pattern typically signals a bullish reversal, suggesting that an asset has established a price floor after bouncing from key support twice. “We had a break of the W and then a throwback, a throwback being a bullish retest from above,” Cheds explained.

AW模式通常標誌著看漲的逆轉，這表明資產兩次從鑰匙支持中彈跳後已經建立了價格地面。 Cheds解釋說：“我們遇到了W的休息，然後是回頭路，回落是從上方重新測試的。”

The analyst believes Bitcoin will likely see higher prices as long as its immediate support level between $78,500 and $81,000 holds. “Regain $81,000 and we’re back in business,” Cheds stated.

該分析師認為，只要比特幣的立即支撐水平在78,500美元至81,000美元之間，比特幣的價格可能會更高。 Cheds說：“重新獲得了81,000美元，我們又重新開始營業。”

Recent price action seems to support this view. Bitcoin started yesterday at $79,500, continuing a downtrend from before. The market soon reached oversold conditions, triggering a reversal when a golden cross formed on the MACD indicator.

最近的價格行動似乎支持了這一觀點。比特幣昨天以79,500美元的價格開始，從前一直處於下降趨勢。市場很快達到了過多的條件，當MACD指標上形成金十字架時會引發逆轉。

A stable uptrend formed, with Bitcoin ascending rapidly at first, then slowing in the later hours. The uptrend continued until Bitcoin tested resistance. Shortly after, Bitcoin grew beyond this resistance despite overbought conditions shown by the RSI.

穩定的上升趨勢形成，比特幣首先迅速上升，然後在後來的幾個小時內放慢速度。上升趨勢一直持續到比特幣測試阻力為止。此後不久，儘管RSI表現出了過多的條件，但比特幣的增長超出了這種阻力。

After some correction, Bitcoin broke above $83,000 and has since shown range-bound behavior, stabilizing near $83,500.

經過一定的更正，比特幣打破了83,000美元，此後顯示了距離界限的行為，穩定在$ 83,500。

Macroeconomic Factors at Play

宏觀經濟因素在起作用

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and well-known Bitcoin advocate, has issued a bold call to investors to “buy everything” as Bitcoin appears positioned for massive gains.

Bitmex和著名比特幣倡導者的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes已向投資者發出了大膽的呼籲，以“購買所有東西”，因為比特幣似乎可以獲得巨大的收益。

Hayes’s optimistic Bitcoin prediction stems from rising bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.5. He views this yield increase as a sign of financial stress that could prompt Federal Reserve intervention.

海斯樂觀的比特幣預測源於債券收益率上升，尤其是10年的國庫收益率超過4.5。他認為這種收益率增加是財務壓力的標誌，可能會促使美聯儲干預。

It’s on like donkey kong. We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/KL3OSYfiMc

它像金剛。如果這樣做，我們將在本週末獲得更多的政策回應。我們即將以$ btc進入僅輸入模式。 pic.twitter.com/kl3osyfimc

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 11, 2025

- 亞瑟·海斯（@cryptohayes）2025年4月11日

“We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for BTC,” Hayes wrote, expressing his belief that Bitcoin is on the verge of a prolonged upward trend.

海斯寫道：“如果這樣做的話，如果這樣做的話，我們將在本週末得到更多的政策回應。我們將只進入BTC的模式。”他表達了他的信念，即比特幣正處於延長上升趨勢的邊緣。

His sentiment aligns with recent remarks by Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve. Collins mentioned that markets are functioning well for now, but the central bank is ready to act if needed.

他的情感與波士頓美聯儲主席蘇珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）最近的講話保持一致。柯林斯（Collins）提到市場目前運作良好，但中央銀行準備在需要時採取行動。

She clarified that interest rate cuts are not the solution for liquidity challenges, noting, “The core interest rate tool we use for monetary policy is certainly not the only tool in the toolkit and probably not the best way to address challenges of liquidity or market functioning.”

她澄清說，降低利率並不是解決流動性挑戰的解決方案，並指出：“我們用於貨幣政策的核心利率工具當然不是工具包中唯一的工具，也可能不是解決流動性或市場運作挑戰的最佳方法。”

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