比特币（BTC）网络经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）保持乐观的前景，这表明未来九个月有75％的新高点。

在X帖子中，彼得森强调了BTC在其历史范围的下限附近的当前位置。分析师强调，比特币的当前路径与最低的25％阈值保持一致，这使得大部分是积极的集会。

Bitcoin (BTC) has a 75% chance of hitting new highs in the next nine months, according to network economist Timothy Peterson, who maintains his optimistic outlook for the asset.

据网络经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）称，比特币（BTC）在未来九个月内有75％的机会达到新高点，他保持了对资产的乐观前景。

In a recent X post, Peterson highlighted BTC's current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency's current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, indicating majority odds for a positive rally.

在最近的X帖子中，彼得森强调了BTC在其历史范围的下限附近的当前位置。分析师指出，加密货币的当前路径与底部的25％阈值一致，表明大集会的多数赔率。

"Bitcoin is currently trading at the lower band of its 10-year seasonal range. Over the past 10 years, when Bitcoin has been within the bottom 25% of its seasonal range at this time of year, it has gone up in the next 3-9 months 75% of the time."

“比特币目前正在其10年季节性范围的下层群体交易。在过去的10年中，比特币在一年中的这个时候一直处于其季节性范围的最低25％之内，在接下来的3-9个月中，比特币已经上升了75％的时间。”

Peterson's statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin's annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

彼得森的声明遵循了一项较早的研究，该研究发现比特币的每年看涨表现都发生在4月和10月，在过去的十年中，比特币的年度看涨表现分别为12.98％和21.98％。

(Image Credit: X)

（图片来源：X）

Most of Bitcoin's annual bullish performance occurs in April and October. April has averaged a 12.98% return over the past 10 years, while October has averaged a 21.98% return. At the moment, Bitcoin is at the lower band of its 10-year seasonal range. When Bitcoin has been within the bottom 25% of its seasonal range at this time of year, it has gone up in the next 3-9 months 75% of the time.

比特币的大部分看涨表现都发生在4月和10月。在过去的10年中，4月的平均回报率为12.98％，而十月的平均回报率为21.98％。目前，比特币处于其10年季节性范围的下部。当比特币在一年中这个时候的季节性范围的最低25％之内时，在接下来的3-9个月中，比特币在75％的时间内增加了。

Peterson added that Bitcoin has a higher chance of going down when it is in the middle of its seasonal range, and it has a slim chance of going down further when it is in the upper band of its seasonal range.

彼得森补充说，当比特币处于季节性范围的中间时，比特币有更大的机会下降，并且当它处于季节性范围的上部乐队的上限时，它的机会很小。

Bitcoin has a 75% chance of hitting new highs in the next 9 months.

在接下来的9个月中，比特币有75％的机会达到新高点。

"Bitcoin has a 75% chance of going up further when it is at the lower band of its seasonal range, a 50% chance of going down when it is in the middle of its seasonal range, and a 25% chance of going down further when it is in the upper band of its seasonal range."

“当比特币处于季节性范围的较低乐队时，比特币有75％的机会进一步上升，当它处于季节性范围的中间时，比特币有50％的机会下降，当它处于季节性范围的上限时，它有25％的机会进一步下降。”

In other words, Bitcoin is more likely to continue trending in the same direction when it is at an extreme of its seasonal range. This is because the market tends to overshoot at turning points, creating opportunities for traders who can identify and capitalize on these trends.

换句话说，当比特币处于季节性范围的极端时，比特币更有可能继续朝着相同的方向发展。这是因为市场倾向于在转折点上超越，为可以识别和利用这些趋势的交易者创造了机会。

Bitcoin is currently at the lower band of its seasonal range, which suggests that there is a higher probability of seeing Bitcoin prices rise in the coming months. However, it is important to note that this is just one factor to consider, and traders should conduct their own technical and fundamental analysis before making any trading decisions.

比特币目前处于其季节性范围的较低乐队，这表明在接下来的几个月中，比特币价格上涨的可能性更高。但是，重要的是要注意，这只是要考虑的一个因素，交易者应在做出任何交易决策之前进行自己的技术和基本分析。

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors' levels

比特币OnChain成本基础区域关键投资者的水平

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

在最近关于CryptoFant的QuickTake帖子中，匿名分析师Crazzyblockk说，短期鲸鱼的实现价格为91,000美元，而最活跃的地址的成本基础在84,000美元至85,000美元之间。

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币短期鲸鱼位置。资料来源：加密

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

低于成本基础的下跌可能会触发销售，从而使$ 84,000至85,000美元的流动性区域范围为85,000美元。

The analyst added, "If BTC falls below $84k, it could open up selling pressure as short-term whales might get stopped out and highly active addresses will be entering a zone where they are more likely to sell than buy."

这位分析师补充说：“如果BTC低于$ 8.4K，它可能会打开销售压力，因为短期鲸鱼可能会被停止，并且高度活跃的地址将进入一个更有可能出售的区域，而不是购买。”

However, considering the strong buying pressure evident in derivatives markets, further declines might be limited.

但是，考虑到衍生品市场明显明显的购买压力，进一步下降可能会受到限制。

Moreover, an analysis by crypto researcher Ali A covered the Hash Ribon signal, which is a combination of the Hash Rate and the total output of new coins, and found that it flipped 'macro bullish' this week with the first buy signal in eight months.

此外，加密研究员Ali A的分析涵盖了哈希ribon信号，这是哈希速率和新硬币的总产量的组合，并发现本周它在八个月内通过首选信号翻转了“宏观看涨”。

"Hash Ribon flipped macro bullish this week with the first buy signal in 8 months. It signaled a macro-bullish bias in the last bull market in 2021, and also bottomed at the Covid lows in March 2020. The signal measures the total output of new coins vs. the hash rate."

“哈希·雷恩（Hash Ribon）本周在8个月内以第一批购买信号翻转了宏观看涨。它标志着2021年最后一个牛市的宏观偏见，并且在2020年3月在Covid Lows上也触底了。该信号衡量了新硬币的总产量与哈希速率。”

This post does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

这篇文章不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。