比特幣（BTC）網絡經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）保持樂觀的前景，這表明未來九個月有75％的新高點。

在X帖子中，彼得森強調了BTC在其歷史範圍的下限附近的當前位置。分析師強調，比特幣的當前路徑與最低的25％閾值保持一致，這使得大部分是積極的集會。

Bitcoin (BTC) has a 75% chance of hitting new highs in the next nine months, according to network economist Timothy Peterson, who maintains his optimistic outlook for the asset.

據網絡經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）稱，比特幣（BTC）在未來九個月內有75％的機會達到新高點，他保持了對資產的樂觀前景。

In a recent X post, Peterson highlighted BTC's current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency's current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, indicating majority odds for a positive rally.

在最近的X帖子中，彼得森強調了BTC在其歷史範圍的下限附近的當前位置。分析師指出，加密貨幣的當前路徑與底部的25％閾值一致，表明大集會的多數賠率。

"Bitcoin is currently trading at the lower band of its 10-year seasonal range. Over the past 10 years, when Bitcoin has been within the bottom 25% of its seasonal range at this time of year, it has gone up in the next 3-9 months 75% of the time."

“比特幣目前正在其10年季節性範圍的下層群體交易。在過去的10年中，比特幣在一年中的這個時候一直處於其季節性範圍的最低25％之內，在接下來的3-9個月中，比特幣已經上升了75％的時間。”

Peterson's statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin's annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

彼得森的聲明遵循了一項較早的研究，該研究發現比特幣的每年看漲表現都發生在4月和10月，在過去的十年中，比特幣的年度看漲表現分別為12.98％和21.98％。

(Image Credit: X)

（圖片來源：X）

Most of Bitcoin's annual bullish performance occurs in April and October. April has averaged a 12.98% return over the past 10 years, while October has averaged a 21.98% return. At the moment, Bitcoin is at the lower band of its 10-year seasonal range. When Bitcoin has been within the bottom 25% of its seasonal range at this time of year, it has gone up in the next 3-9 months 75% of the time.

比特幣的大部分看漲表現都發生在4月和10月。在過去的10年中，4月的平均回報率為12.98％，而十月的平均回報率為21.98％。目前，比特幣處於其10年季節性範圍的下部。當比特幣在一年中這個時候的季節性範圍的最低25％之內時，在接下來的3-9個月中，比特幣在75％的時間內增加了。

Peterson added that Bitcoin has a higher chance of going down when it is in the middle of its seasonal range, and it has a slim chance of going down further when it is in the upper band of its seasonal range.

彼得森補充說，當比特幣處於季節性範圍的中間時，比特幣有更大的機會下降，並且當它處於季節性範圍的上部樂隊的上限時，它的機會很小。

Bitcoin has a 75% chance of hitting new highs in the next 9 months.

在接下來的9個月中，比特幣有75％的機會達到新高點。

"Bitcoin has a 75% chance of going up further when it is at the lower band of its seasonal range, a 50% chance of going down when it is in the middle of its seasonal range, and a 25% chance of going down further when it is in the upper band of its seasonal range."

“當比特幣處於季節性範圍的較低樂隊時，比特幣有75％的機會進一步上升，當它處於季節性範圍的中間時，比特幣有50％的機會下降，當它處於季節性範圍的上限時，它有25％的機會進一步下降。”

In other words, Bitcoin is more likely to continue trending in the same direction when it is at an extreme of its seasonal range. This is because the market tends to overshoot at turning points, creating opportunities for traders who can identify and capitalize on these trends.

換句話說，當比特幣處於季節性範圍的極端時，比特幣更有可能繼續朝著相同的方向發展。這是因為市場傾向於在轉折點上超越，為可以識別和利用這些趨勢的交易者創造了機會。

Bitcoin is currently at the lower band of its seasonal range, which suggests that there is a higher probability of seeing Bitcoin prices rise in the coming months. However, it is important to note that this is just one factor to consider, and traders should conduct their own technical and fundamental analysis before making any trading decisions.

比特幣目前處於其季節性範圍的較低樂隊，這表明在接下來的幾個月中，比特幣價格上漲的可能性更高。但是，重要的是要注意，這只是要考慮的一個因素，交易者應在做出任何交易決策之前進行自己的技術和基本分析。

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors' levels

比特幣OnChain成本基礎區域關鍵投資者的水平

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

在最近關於CryptoFant的QuickTake帖子中，匿名分析師Crazzyblockk說，短期鯨魚的實現價格為91,000美元，而最活躍的地址的成本基礎在84,000美元至85,000美元之間。

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣短期鯨魚位置。資料來源：加密

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

低於成本基礎的下跌可能會觸發銷售，從而使$ 84,000至85,000美元的流動性區域範圍為85,000美元。

The analyst added, "If BTC falls below $84k, it could open up selling pressure as short-term whales might get stopped out and highly active addresses will be entering a zone where they are more likely to sell than buy."

這位分析師補充說：“如果BTC低於$ 8.4K，它可能會打開銷售壓力，因為短期鯨魚可能會被停止，並且高度活躍的地址將進入一個更有可能出售的區域，而不是購買。”

However, considering the strong buying pressure evident in derivatives markets, further declines might be limited.

但是，考慮到衍生品市場明顯明顯的購買壓力，進一步下降可能會受到限制。

Moreover, an analysis by crypto researcher Ali A covered the Hash Ribon signal, which is a combination of the Hash Rate and the total output of new coins, and found that it flipped 'macro bullish' this week with the first buy signal in eight months.

此外，加密研究員Ali A的分析涵蓋了哈希ribon信號，這是哈希速率和新硬幣的總產量的組合，並發現本週它在八個月內通過首選信號翻轉了“宏觀看漲”。

"Hash Ribon flipped macro bullish this week with the first buy signal in 8 months. It signaled a macro-bullish bias in the last bull market in 2021, and also bottomed at the Covid lows in March 2020. The signal measures the total output of new coins vs. the hash rate."

“哈希·雷恩（Hash Ribon）本週在8個月內以第一批購買信號翻轉了宏觀看漲。它標誌著2021年最後一個牛市的宏觀偏見，並且在2020年3月在Covid Lows上也觸底了。該信號衡量了新硬幣的總產量與哈希速率。”

This post does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

這篇文章不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。