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自上次减半事件以来,比特币已突破 160 天的门槛,这在历史上标志着价格大幅上涨的开始点。
Bitcoin has crossed the 160-day threshold since the last halving event, which historically marks the point where major upward price movement begins.
自上次减半事件以来,比特币已突破 160 天的门槛,这在历史上标志着价格大幅上涨的开始点。
Key Points
要点
As Bitcoin continues to see steady price growth, recent data suggests that the market may be overly optimistic. On September 30, on-chain analytics platform Santiment reported that market sentiment around Bitcoin is at its most bullish point in months, but cautioned that this could work against expectations of BTC reaching new all-time highs.
随着比特币价格继续稳定增长,最近的数据表明市场可能过于乐观。 9 月 30 日,链上分析平台 Santiment 报告称,围绕比特币的市场情绪正处于数月来的最高点,但警告称,这可能不利于 BTC 创下历史新高的预期。
Santiment’s analysis delved into social sentiment data, revealing that for every one bearish post about Bitcoin, there are 1.8 bullish posts. While this level of optimism might typically be seen as a positive indicator, the analytics firm noted that markets often move contrary to the crowd’s expectations.
Santiment 的分析深入研究了社会情绪数据,显示每一篇关于比特币的看跌帖子,都会有 1.8 篇看涨帖子。虽然这种乐观程度通常被视为积极指标,但该分析公司指出,市场走势往往与大众的预期相反。
However, not everyone in the crypto community agrees with this assessment. Some argued that the idea of the market behaving opposite to public sentiment may not always hold true, particularly during strong bull runs. One user on X voiced their skepticism, saying:
然而,并非加密社区中的每个人都同意这一评估。一些人认为,市场行为与公众情绪相反的想法可能并不总是成立,特别是在强劲的牛市期间。 X 上的一位用户表达了他们的怀疑,他说:
“In a raging bull market, everyone is bullish, and it keeps pumping.”
“在汹涌的牛市中,每个人都看涨,并且不断上涨。”
Meanwhile, well-known crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently weighed in on Bitcoin’s price movement, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be nearing the end of its reaccumulation phase. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has crossed the 160-day threshold since the last halving event, which historically marks the point where major upward price movement begins.
与此同时,知名加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 最近对比特币的价格走势进行了评估,表明加密货币可能已接近其重新积累阶段的结束。这位分析师表示,自上次减半事件以来,比特币已经突破了 160 天的门槛,这在历史上标志着价格大幅上涨的开始点。
In a September 26 YouTube video, Rekt Capital stated that this week might see some sideways price action before an upward motion. He explained:
在 9 月 26 日的 YouTube 视频中,Rekt Capital 表示,本周在上涨之前可能会出现一些横向价格走势。他解释说:
“If things continue on this path, we could see a breakout in the next week or two. Bitcoin is poised for a move to new all-time highs, and it’s just a matter of when, not if.”
“如果事情继续沿着这条道路发展,我们可能会在未来一两周内看到突破。比特币有望创下历史新高,这只是时间问题,而不是是否会发生的问题。”
This bullish outlook comes amid Bitcoin’s recent price gains. Since mid-September, the cryptocurrency has risen by around 14%, climbing from below $58,000 to over $66,000 in around 10 days. These gains have helped make this September Bitcoin’s strongest in terms of performance since its inception, with a monthly rise of around 12%.
这种看涨前景是在比特币近期价格上涨之际出现的。自 9 月中旬以来,该加密货币已上涨约 14%,在约 10 天内从低于 58,000 美元攀升至超过 66,000 美元。这些涨幅使得今年 9 月份的比特币表现成为自诞生以来最强劲的一次,月度涨幅约为 12%。
The shift in sentiment is also evident in the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale from extreme fear to extreme greed. As of September 30, the index showed a rating of 61, firmly placing it in the “greed” territory. This marks a major turnaround from earlier in the month when the index hit a low of 22, indicating “extreme fear.”
这种情绪的转变在比特币恐惧和贪婪指数中也很明显,该指数衡量从极度恐惧到极度贪婪的市场情绪。截至9月30日,该指数评级为61,牢牢处于“贪婪”区域。这标志着本月早些时候该指数触及 22 低点的重大转变,表明“极度恐惧”。
While the current market outlook remains bullish, there are concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to sustain this momentum. Despite its recent climb, Bitcoin is trading around $64,350, around 13% below its all-time high of $73,734 set in March. Early trading on Monday saw the cryptocurrency drop by 1.7% over the previous 24 hours.
尽管当前的市场前景仍然看涨,但人们对比特币维持这一势头的能力感到担忧。尽管近期有所上涨,但比特币目前的交易价格约为 64,350 美元,比 3 月份创下的历史高点 73,734 美元低约 13%。周一早盘交易中,加密货币在过去 24 小时内下跌了 1.7%。
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