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自上次減半事件以來,比特幣已突破 160 天的門檻,這在歷史上標誌著價格大幅上漲的起點。
Bitcoin has crossed the 160-day threshold since the last halving event, which historically marks the point where major upward price movement begins.
自上次減半事件以來,比特幣已突破 160 天的門檻,這在歷史上標誌著價格大幅上漲的起點。
Key Points
重點
As Bitcoin continues to see steady price growth, recent data suggests that the market may be overly optimistic. On September 30, on-chain analytics platform Santiment reported that market sentiment around Bitcoin is at its most bullish point in months, but cautioned that this could work against expectations of BTC reaching new all-time highs.
隨著比特幣價格繼續穩定增長,最近的數據表明市場可能過於樂觀。 9 月 30 日,鏈上分析平台 Santiment 報告稱,圍繞比特幣的市場情緒正處於數月來的最高點,但警告稱,這可能不利於 BTC 創下歷史新高的預期。
Santiment’s analysis delved into social sentiment data, revealing that for every one bearish post about Bitcoin, there are 1.8 bullish posts. While this level of optimism might typically be seen as a positive indicator, the analytics firm noted that markets often move contrary to the crowd’s expectations.
Santiment 的分析深入研究了社會情緒數據,顯示每一篇關於比特幣的看跌帖子,都會有 1.8 篇看漲帖子。雖然這種樂觀程度通常被視為積極指標,但該分析公司指出,市場趨勢往往與大眾的預期相反。
However, not everyone in the crypto community agrees with this assessment. Some argued that the idea of the market behaving opposite to public sentiment may not always hold true, particularly during strong bull runs. One user on X voiced their skepticism, saying:
然而,並非加密社群中的每個人都同意這項評估。有些人認為,市場行為與公眾情緒相反的想法可能並不總是成立,特別是在強勁的牛市期間。 X 上的一位用戶表達了他們的懷疑,他說:
“In a raging bull market, everyone is bullish, and it keeps pumping.”
“在洶湧的牛市中,每個人都看漲,並且不斷上漲。”
Meanwhile, well-known crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently weighed in on Bitcoin’s price movement, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be nearing the end of its reaccumulation phase. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has crossed the 160-day threshold since the last halving event, which historically marks the point where major upward price movement begins.
同時,知名加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 最近對比特幣的價格走勢進行了評估,顯示加密貨幣可能已接近其重新累積階段的結束。這位分析師表示,自上次減半事件以來,比特幣已經突破了 160 天的門檻,這在歷史上標誌著價格大幅上漲的起點。
In a September 26 YouTube video, Rekt Capital stated that this week might see some sideways price action before an upward motion. He explained:
在 9 月 26 日的 YouTube 影片中,Rekt Capital 表示,本週在上漲之前可能會出現一些橫向價格走勢。他解釋說:
“If things continue on this path, we could see a breakout in the next week or two. Bitcoin is poised for a move to new all-time highs, and it’s just a matter of when, not if.”
「如果事情繼續沿著這條道路發展,我們可能會在未來一兩週內看到突破。比特幣有望創下歷史新高,這只是時間問題,而不是是否會發生的問題。
This bullish outlook comes amid Bitcoin’s recent price gains. Since mid-September, the cryptocurrency has risen by around 14%, climbing from below $58,000 to over $66,000 in around 10 days. These gains have helped make this September Bitcoin’s strongest in terms of performance since its inception, with a monthly rise of around 12%.
這種看漲前景是在比特幣近期價格上漲之際出現的。自 9 月中旬以來,該加密貨幣已上漲約 14%,在約 10 天內從低於 58,000 美元攀升至超過 66,000 美元。這些漲幅使得今年 9 月的比特幣表現成為自誕生以來最強勁的一次,月漲幅約為 12%。
The shift in sentiment is also evident in the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale from extreme fear to extreme greed. As of September 30, the index showed a rating of 61, firmly placing it in the “greed” territory. This marks a major turnaround from earlier in the month when the index hit a low of 22, indicating “extreme fear.”
這種情緒的轉變在比特幣恐懼和貪婪指數中也很明顯,該指數衡量從極度恐懼到極度貪婪的市場情緒。截至9月30日,該指數評級為61,牢牢處於「貪婪」區域。這標誌著本月稍早該指數觸及 22 低點的重大轉變,顯示「極度恐懼」。
While the current market outlook remains bullish, there are concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to sustain this momentum. Despite its recent climb, Bitcoin is trading around $64,350, around 13% below its all-time high of $73,734 set in March. Early trading on Monday saw the cryptocurrency drop by 1.7% over the previous 24 hours.
儘管當前的市場前景仍然看漲,但人們對比特幣維持這一勢頭的能力感到擔憂。儘管近期有所上漲,但比特幣目前的交易價格約為 64,350 美元,比 3 月創下的歷史高點 73,734 美元低約 13%。在週一早盤交易中,加密貨幣在過去 24 小時內下跌了 1.7%。
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