比特币（BTC）接近本地顶部，年轻的年龄乐队占主导地位：加密量

自2024年11月5日开始以美国市场为主导的公牛奔跑以来，比特币[BTC]经历了强劲的向上势头。

Bitcoin [BTC] has experienced a strong upward momentum since starting a U.S. market-led bull run on the 5th of November 2024. Over this period, BTC has reached multiple all-time highs (ATHs) with minor corrections along the way.

自从2024年11月5日开始以美国市场领导的公牛奔跑以来，比特币[BTC]经历了强劲的势头。在此期间，BTC在此过程中达到了多个历史最高的高点（ATH）。

With the bull market extending to nearly three months, several analysts have expressed concerns over a potential top.

随着牛市延长到近三个月，几位分析师对潜在的顶级表示关注。

Among them, CryptoQuant analysts have suggested that Bitcoin is at risk of a local top, citing increased speculation as younger age bands dominate.

其中，加密分析师表明，比特币有局部顶部的风险，理由是年龄段的年龄段占主导地位。

Is Bitcoin’s top near? According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks have experienced patterns of younger UTXOs (1d-3m) dominating at the tops.

比特币的顶部靠近吗？根据加密素养的说法，比特币的先前周期峰经历了顶部占主导地位的年轻UTXO（1d-3m）的模式。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Historically, high levels of recently moved coins coincide with cycle tops, notably in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

从历史上看，最近移动的硬币与周期顶部相吻合，尤其是在2013年，2017年和2021年。

During the current cycle, the market has seen a surge in younger UTXOs, suggesting growing participation from newer market entrants. However, this cycle has not yet reached the extreme levels seen in previous peaks.

在当前周期中，市场激增了年轻的UTXO，这表明新的市场参与者的参与日益增加。但是，这个周期尚未达到先前峰值中的极端水平。

When a large percentage of Bitcoin is held in younger UTXOs, it signals increased speculation and a higher risk of market tops.

当在年轻的UTXO中举行大部分比特币时，它标志着猜测和更高的市场高层风险。

Therefore, if this trend continues, we could see a final leg up before distribution begins. However, if long-term holders maintain their positions, Bitcoin’s rally may continue.

因此，如果这种趋势继续下去，我们可以在分配开始之前看到最后一条腿。但是，如果长期持有人保持自己的地位，则比特币的集会可能会继续。

BTC was entering a phase of increased market activity, but the proportion of young UTXOs is not yet at historical peak levels.

BTC正在进入市场活动的增加阶段，但是年轻的UTXOS的比例尚未在历史峰值水平上。

This indicates that Bitcoin still has room for further upside, though a potential top is not far-fetched.

这表明比特币仍然有进一步上升空间的空间，尽管潜在的顶部并不牵强。

What BTC’s charts suggest While the rise of younger UTXOs may signal a potential top for Bitcoin, AMBCrypto’s analysis pointed out that the market top is not yet.

BTC的图表表明，虽然年轻的UTXOS的兴起可能标志着比特币的潜在顶部，但Ambcrypto的分析指出，市场顶部尚未。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

For instance, Bitcoin’s average dormancy has declined from 116.40 to 17.1. This decline suggests that long-term holders are not selling.

例如，比特币的平均休眠已从116.40下降到17.1。这种下降表明长期持有人没有销售。

Usually, this means that long-term holders are accumulating BTC, which is often a bullish signal.

通常，这意味着长期持有人正在积累BTC，这通常是看涨的信号。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Bitcoin’s exchange reserve has experienced a sustained drop, falling to 2.3 over the past month. This drop implies that more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges, suggesting accumulation behavior.

比特币的交易储备经历了持续的下降，在过去一个月中降至2.3。该下降意味着从交流中撤出更多的BTC，表明积累行为。

With less selling pressure, BTC is less likely to reach the top.

随着销售压力较小，BTC不太可能达到顶部。

Source: Santiment

资料来源：santiment

Finally, at press time, Bitcoin’s MVRV stood at 3.03. This level suggests that BTC is currently experiencing healthy market conditions, with rises and minor corrections following. Historically, an MVRV ratio above 3.7 to 4.5 has signaled a potential top.

最后，在发稿时，比特币的MVRV处于3.03。该水平表明，BTC目前正在经历健康的市场状况，随后进行了较小的更正。从历史上看，超过3.7至4.5的MVRV比标志着潜在的顶部。

Is your portfolio green? Check out the Bitcoin Profit Calculator

您的投资组合绿色吗？查看比特币利润计算器

The current levels suggest that BTC still has room for growth. Although younger UTXOs are rising, Bitcoin has not yet reached the top because long-term holders are maintaining their positions.

目前的水平表明BTC仍然有生长的余地。尽管年轻的UTXO正在上升，但比特币尚未达到顶峰，因为长期持有人保持了自己的位置。

At current conditions, BTC could reclaim $105,280. However, a correction at this level could see a drop to $100,000 before starting another uptrend.

在当前情况下，BTC可以收回$ 105,280。但是，在开始另一个上升趋势之前，此级别的更正可能会降至100,000美元。