比特幣（BTC）接近本地頂部，年輕的年齡樂隊占主導地位：加密量

自2024年11月5日開始以美國市場為主導的公牛奔跑以來，比特幣[BTC]經歷了強勁的向上勢頭。

Bitcoin [BTC] has experienced a strong upward momentum since starting a U.S. market-led bull run on the 5th of November 2024. Over this period, BTC has reached multiple all-time highs (ATHs) with minor corrections along the way.

自從2024年11月5日開始以美國市場領導的公牛奔跑以來，比特幣[BTC]經歷了強勁的勢頭。在此期間，BTC在此過程中達到了多個歷史最高的高點（ATH）。

With the bull market extending to nearly three months, several analysts have expressed concerns over a potential top.

隨著牛市延長到近三個月，幾位分析師對潛在的頂級表示關注。

Among them, CryptoQuant analysts have suggested that Bitcoin is at risk of a local top, citing increased speculation as younger age bands dominate.

其中，加密分析師表明，比特幣有局部頂部的風險，理由是年齡段的年齡段占主導地位。

Is Bitcoin’s top near? According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks have experienced patterns of younger UTXOs (1d-3m) dominating at the tops.

比特幣的頂部靠近嗎？根據加密素養的說法，比特幣的先前週期峰經歷了頂部占主導地位的年輕UTXO（1d-3m）的模式。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Historically, high levels of recently moved coins coincide with cycle tops, notably in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

從歷史上看，最近移動的硬幣與週期頂部相吻合，尤其是在2013年，2017年和2021年。

During the current cycle, the market has seen a surge in younger UTXOs, suggesting growing participation from newer market entrants. However, this cycle has not yet reached the extreme levels seen in previous peaks.

在當前週期中，市場激增了年輕的UTXO，這表明新的市場參與者的參與日益增加。但是，這個週期尚未達到先前峰值中的極端水平。

When a large percentage of Bitcoin is held in younger UTXOs, it signals increased speculation and a higher risk of market tops.

當在年輕的UTXO中舉行大部分比特幣時，它標誌著猜測和更高的市場高層風險。

Therefore, if this trend continues, we could see a final leg up before distribution begins. However, if long-term holders maintain their positions, Bitcoin’s rally may continue.

因此，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，我們可以在分配開始之前看到最後一條腿。但是，如果長期持有人保持自己的地位，則比特幣的集會可能會繼續。

BTC was entering a phase of increased market activity, but the proportion of young UTXOs is not yet at historical peak levels.

BTC正在進入市場活動的增加階段，但是年輕的UTXOS的比例尚未在歷史峰值水平上。

This indicates that Bitcoin still has room for further upside, though a potential top is not far-fetched.

這表明比特幣仍然有進一步上升空間的空間，儘管潛在的頂部並不牽強。

What BTC’s charts suggest While the rise of younger UTXOs may signal a potential top for Bitcoin, AMBCrypto’s analysis pointed out that the market top is not yet.

BTC的圖表表明，雖然年輕的UTXOS的興起可能標誌著比特幣的潛在頂部，但Ambcrypto的分析指出，市場頂部尚未。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

For instance, Bitcoin’s average dormancy has declined from 116.40 to 17.1. This decline suggests that long-term holders are not selling.

例如，比特幣的平均休眠已從116.40下降到17.1。這種下降表明長期持有人沒有銷售。

Usually, this means that long-term holders are accumulating BTC, which is often a bullish signal.

通常，這意味著長期持有人正在積累BTC，這通常是看漲的信號。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Bitcoin’s exchange reserve has experienced a sustained drop, falling to 2.3 over the past month. This drop implies that more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges, suggesting accumulation behavior.

比特幣的交易儲備經歷了持續的下降，在過去一個月中降至2.3。該下降意味著從交流中撤出更多的BTC，表明積累行為。

With less selling pressure, BTC is less likely to reach the top.

隨著銷售壓力較小，BTC不太可能達到頂部。

Source: Santiment

資料來源：santiment

Finally, at press time, Bitcoin’s MVRV stood at 3.03. This level suggests that BTC is currently experiencing healthy market conditions, with rises and minor corrections following. Historically, an MVRV ratio above 3.7 to 4.5 has signaled a potential top.

最後，在發稿時，比特幣的MVRV處於3.03。該水平表明，BTC目前正在經歷健康的市場狀況，隨後進行了較小的更正。從歷史上看，超過3.7至4.5的MVRV比標誌著潛在的頂部。

Is your portfolio green? Check out the Bitcoin Profit Calculator

您的投資組合綠色嗎？查看比特幣利潤計算器

The current levels suggest that BTC still has room for growth. Although younger UTXOs are rising, Bitcoin has not yet reached the top because long-term holders are maintaining their positions.

目前的水平表明BTC仍然有生長的餘地。儘管年輕的UTXO正在上升，但比特幣尚未達到頂峰，因為長期持有人保持了自己的位置。

At current conditions, BTC could reclaim $105,280. However, a correction at this level could see a drop to $100,000 before starting another uptrend.

在當前情況下，BTC可以收回$ 105,280。但是，在開始另一個上升趨勢之前，此級別的更正可能會降至100,000美元。