比特币（BTC）MVRV z得分显示市场周期可能已经达到顶峰

经过几个月的看涨势头，今年早些时候将比特币价格推高了109,000美元以上

After months of bullish momentum that pushed the Bitcoin price to an all-time high of over $109,000 earlier this year, analysts are now debating whether that surge marked the official market top. Strengthening this argument, a confluence of technical indicators suggests the market cycle may have already peaked—most notably, the behavior of the Market Value to Real Value (MVRV) Z-Score reinforces this view.

经过数月的看涨势头，今年早些时候将比特币价格推高了109,000美元以上的历史最高高点，分析师现在正在争论这种激增是否标志着官方市场的顶级。加强了这一论点，技术指标的汇合表明，市场周期可能已经达到顶峰 - 最值得注意的是，市场价值对实际价值（MVRV）Z-Score的行为加强了这一观点。

MVRV Z-Score Shows Bitcoin Price Has Topped

MVRV z得分显示比特币价格已超过

A new technical analysis by crypto analyst Tony Severino, which combines MVRV Z-Score and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), is flashing warning signs that Bitcoin‘s market top may already be in.

加密分析师Tony Severino进行了一项新的技术分析，该分析师结合了MVRV Z分数和每月相对强度指数（RSI），它闪烁了警告迹象，表明比特币的市场顶部可能已经存在。

Looking at the logarithmic price chart, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has broken below a long-standing uptrend support line. This pattern is significant, as the Z-Score has always respected the uptrend support lines during bull markets, with similar breaks only emerging after Bitcoin reaches an official market top.

查看对数价格图表，比特币的MVRV Z得分已经在长期的上升趋势支持线上打破。这种模式很重要，因为Z分数始终尊重牛市期间的上升趋势支持线，只有比特币达到官方市场顶级之后，类似的休息才出现。

Notably, this isn’t the first time Bitcoin has displayed such a trend behavior. Similar support line breaks occurred before BTC’s market peaks during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. The bearish argument that Bitcoin may have already reached a price peak is further strengthened by the visual correlation between the Z-Score and Bitcoin’s monthly RSI, which is shown by a black line on the chart.

值得注意的是，这不是比特币第一次展示这种趋势行为。在2017年和2021年牛周期内BTC的市场峰值之前，也发生了类似的支撑线断裂。 Z分数和比特币的每月RSI之间的视觉相关性进一步加强了比特币可能已经达到价格峰的看跌论点，这是图表上的黑线显示的。

In past cycles, Bitcoin’s RSI fell below 70 twice, indicating fading momentum and weakening price action. Historically, such moves below the 70 level occur shortly after price tops, not before.

在过去的周期中，比特币的RSI两次下降到70次以下，表明势头衰落和价格降低了价格。从历史上看，这种举动低于70级，发生在价格上涨之后，而不是以前。

Even more compelling, the RSI-based Moving Average (MA), highlighted by the orange line on the chart, is now curling downwards. This subtle but strong signal has only appeared in past cycles after the market has already topped, serving as a confirmation rather than a prediction.

更引人注目的是，基于RSI的移动平均线（MA）在图表上的橙色线突出显示，现在正在向下卷曲。在市场已经登顶之后，这种微妙但强烈的信号才出现在过去的周期中，这是确认而不是预测。

Taken together, these technical indicators and historical trends strongly suggest that Bitcoin’s $109,000 peak may have marked the top of this bull market. In line with previous post-top bull market behavior, Bitcoin could now be on the verge of entering a prolonged bear market. This bearish outlook is reinforced by recent steep price corrections, reduced investor confidence, and a clear shift in market sentiment toward caution and uncertainty.

综上所述，这些技术指标和历史趋势强烈表明，比特币的109,000美元高峰可能标志着这个牛市的顶峰。与先前的牛市市场行为一致，现在可以比特币进入长时间的熊市。最近的陡峭价格校正，投资者的信心降低以及市场情绪向谨慎和不确定性的明显转变所增强了这种看跌的前景。

Bulls Attempt To Reverse Bitcoin Bearish Outlook

公牛试图扭转比特币看跌前景

In another of his most recent analyses of Bitcoin, Severino revealed that bulls appear to be pushing for a price recovery. The analyst acknowledged that his previously dominant bearish narrative of Bitcoin may soon see a significant shift if bulls can sustain momentum into April’s monthly close.

Severino在他最近对比特币的另一个分析中表明，公牛似乎正在推动价格恢复。分析师承认，如果公牛能够维持四月的每月结束，他以前对比特币的看跌叙事很快就会发生重大转变。

According to the presented chart, Bitcoin is now testing a key area of interest while simultaneously showing early bullish signs of reversing the bearish crossover on the monthly long-term Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Adding to the intrigue, the possible formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern reinforces the possibility of a bullish reversal for Bitcoin.

根据所提出的图表，比特币现在正在测试关键的关键领域，同时显示了早期看涨的迹象，即在每月长期移动平均融合差异（MACD）上扭转了看跌的交叉。增加了阴谋，晨星烛台图案的可能形成加强了对比特币的看涨逆转的可能性。

Notably, similar chart setups occurred in 2022 and mid-2023, both of which marked major turning points for Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. If the cryptocurrency manages to close April with a complete Morning Star pattern, it could force a reevaluation of bearish expectations.

值得注意的是，类似的图表设置发生在2022年和2023年中，这两者都标志着比特币长期前景的主要转折点。如果加密货币设法以完整的晨星模式结束了四月，则可能会迫使对看跌期望的重新评估。