比特幣（BTC）MVRV z得分顯示市場週期可能已經達到頂峰

經過幾個月的看漲勢頭，今年早些時候將比特幣價格推高了109,000美元以上

After months of bullish momentum that pushed the Bitcoin price to an all-time high of over $109,000 earlier this year, analysts are now debating whether that surge marked the official market top. Strengthening this argument, a confluence of technical indicators suggests the market cycle may have already peaked—most notably, the behavior of the Market Value to Real Value (MVRV) Z-Score reinforces this view.

經過數月的看漲勢頭，今年早些時候將比特幣價格推高了109,000美元以上的歷史最高高點，分析師現在正在爭論這種激增是否標誌著官方市場的頂級。加強了這一論點，技術指標的匯合表明，市場週期可能已經達到頂峰 - 最值得注意的是，市場價值對實際價值（MVRV）Z-Score的行為加強了這一觀點。

MVRV Z-Score Shows Bitcoin Price Has Topped

MVRV z得分顯示比特幣價格已超過

A new technical analysis by crypto analyst Tony Severino, which combines MVRV Z-Score and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), is flashing warning signs that Bitcoin‘s market top may already be in.

加密分析師Tony Severino進行了一項新的技術分析，該分析師結合了MVRV Z分數和每月相對強度指數（RSI），它閃爍了警告跡象，表明比特幣的市場頂部可能已經存在。

Looking at the logarithmic price chart, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has broken below a long-standing uptrend support line. This pattern is significant, as the Z-Score has always respected the uptrend support lines during bull markets, with similar breaks only emerging after Bitcoin reaches an official market top.

查看對數價格圖表，比特幣的MVRV Z得分已經在長期的上升趨勢支持線上打破。這種模式很重要，因為Z分數始終尊重牛市期間的上升趨勢支持線，只有比特幣達到官方市場頂級之後，類似的突破才出現。

Notably, this isn’t the first time Bitcoin has displayed such a trend behavior. Similar support line breaks occurred before BTC’s market peaks during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. The bearish argument that Bitcoin may have already reached a price peak is further strengthened by the visual correlation between the Z-Score and Bitcoin’s monthly RSI, which is shown by a black line on the chart.

值得注意的是，這不是比特幣第一次展示這種趨勢行為。在2017年和2021年牛週期內BTC的市場峰值之前，也發生了類似的支撐線斷裂。 Z分數和比特幣的每月RSI之間的視覺相關性進一步加強了比特幣可能已經達到價格峰的看跌論點，這是圖表上的黑線顯示的。

In past cycles, Bitcoin’s RSI fell below 70 twice, indicating fading momentum and weakening price action. Historically, such moves below the 70 level occur shortly after price tops, not before.

在過去的周期中，比特幣的RSI兩次下降到70次以下，表明勢頭衰落和價格降低了價格。從歷史上看，這種舉動低於70級，發生在價格上漲之後，而不是以前。

Even more compelling, the RSI-based Moving Average (MA), highlighted by the orange line on the chart, is now curling downwards. This subtle but strong signal has only appeared in past cycles after the market has already topped, serving as a confirmation rather than a prediction.

更引人注目的是，基於RSI的移動平均線（MA）在圖表上的橙色線突出顯示，現在正在向下捲曲。在市場已經登頂之後，這種微妙但強烈的信號才出現在過去的周期中，這是確認而不是預測。

Taken together, these technical indicators and historical trends strongly suggest that Bitcoin’s $109,000 peak may have marked the top of this bull market. In line with previous post-top bull market behavior, Bitcoin could now be on the verge of entering a prolonged bear market. This bearish outlook is reinforced by recent steep price corrections, reduced investor confidence, and a clear shift in market sentiment toward caution and uncertainty.

綜上所述，這些技術指標和歷史趨勢強烈表明，比特幣的109,000美元高峰可能標誌著這個牛市的頂部。與先前的牛市市場行為一致，現在可以比特幣進入長時間的熊市。最近的陡峭價格校正，投資者的信心降低以及市場情緒向謹慎和不確定性的明顯轉變所增強了這種看跌的前景。

Bulls Attempt To Reverse Bitcoin Bearish Outlook

公牛試圖扭轉比特幣看跌前景

In another of his most recent analyses of Bitcoin, Severino revealed that bulls appear to be pushing for a price recovery. The analyst acknowledged that his previously dominant bearish narrative of Bitcoin may soon see a significant shift if bulls can sustain momentum into April’s monthly close.

Severino在他最近對比特幣的另一個分析中表明，公牛似乎正在推動價格恢復。分析師承認，如果公牛能夠維持四月的每月結束，他以前對比特幣的看跌敘事很快就會發生重大轉變。

According to the presented chart, Bitcoin is now testing a key area of interest while simultaneously showing early bullish signs of reversing the bearish crossover on the monthly long-term Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Adding to the intrigue, the possible formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern reinforces the possibility of a bullish reversal for Bitcoin.

根據所提出的圖表，比特幣現在正在測試關鍵的關鍵領域，同時顯示了早期看漲的跡象，即在每月長期移動平均融合差異（MACD）上扭轉了看跌的交叉。增加了陰謀，晨星燭台圖案的可能形成加強了對比特幣的看漲逆轉的可能性。

Notably, similar chart setups occurred in 2022 and mid-2023, both of which marked major turning points for Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. If the cryptocurrency manages to close April with a complete Morning Star pattern, it could force a reevaluation of bearish expectations.

值得注意的是，類似的圖表設置發生在2022年和2023年中，這兩者都標誌著比特幣長期前景的主要轉折點。如果加密貨幣設法以完整的晨星模式結束了四月，則可能會迫使對看跌期望的重新評估。