比特币（BTC）市场轨迹辩论愤怒：两位加密分析师提供对比的观点

在有关比特币市场轨迹的持续辩论中，两位著名的加密分析师在X上分享了对比的观点，强调了社区分裂的情绪。

Two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on the ongoing Bitcoin market downturn, with one seeing the possibility of further lows and another suggesting that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing an 87.5% probability.

两位著名的加密分析师在正在进行的比特币市场下滑上分享了对比的观点，其中一位看到了进一步的低点的可能性，另一位表明市场最糟糕的市场衰退已经过去，认为这是87.5％的概率。

Bitcoin Bears In Trouble?

比特币遇到麻烦？

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit took to X to highlight two potential paths for Bitcoin. “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.”

加密分析师的医生利润拿到X，突出了比特币的两条潜在途径。 “有两种情况：a）在正常市场中，底部为68-74K地区，b）在黑天鹅事件中朝50k坠毁。”

He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it.

他没有为两种结果提供具体的可能性，但强调一个黑天鹅事件（用于描述罕见，意外的事件，可能会对市场产生巨大影响的术语）被排除在外。尽管他指出以前不太可能出现这种非凡的衰退，但他现在承认，宏观景观最近发生的变化可能会为此留出空间。

“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.”

“赌你的赌注，我想说的是，在过去的几个月中，黑天鹅事件不太可能，但是现在问我，我不会排除它，而是欢迎它。”

In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time.

相比之下，加密分析师天文学家的反应更加看好，并断言底部已经在我们身后。他在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上提到了比特币价格逆转的记录，声称其“ 16次中有14次”，约为87.5％的时间。

“Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.”

“不能保证，但是有87.5％的机会，授予下面的图表以及我已经提出的所有融合。到目前为止，一切都很好。”

His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer’s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five “2D bars” before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself.

他的方法依赖于在靠近FOMC日期的附近绘制价格变动，并指出在官方公告之前，市场经常在利率决策（及相关新闻）中定价。天文学家的方法认为，比特币通常会在FOMC日期到会议本身的日期之前从最高五个“ 2D bar”窗口中找到本地底部。

“All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes.

“它所需要的只是每天（在我的情况下每天或每天2次，以保持图表清洁）的时间范围，绘制出出现的所有日期FOMC会议，并查看价格的做法。这表明，当时间接近FOMC时，价格确实会逆转。警告是，在FOMC日，价格在最近或最新的情况下倒转。”分析师写道。

He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.”

他指出，下一次FOMC会议定于3月19日举行，这意味着底部（如果历史模式成立）可能不晚于那个日期：“几乎每次工作，实际上是16次（或87.5％的时间）……时间差异的时间差，FOMC日的底部发生在确切日期之前的FOMC日是0到5 2d bars。鉴于下一个FOMC是3月19日，这意味着最低点是当天的最新情况，也是3月5日的最早。”

To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as “peaking fear” in the market. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent:

为了加强他的论点，天文学家指出了他认为市场上“恐惧的最高恐惧”。他认为，从既定的商人的典型信号表明反弹可能是迫在眉睫的信号：

“Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are posting advice and cautionary posts out of nowhere which is a bear market bottom signal. I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.”

“明智的情绪，恐惧达到了搞笑的水平。甚至“著名的”贸易商也在无处发表建议和警告帖子，这是熊市底部信号。我不怪任何人的方法，但我认为这是底部的一个很好的迹象。”

At press time, BTC traded at $83,277.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为83,277美元。