比特幣（BTC）市場軌跡辯論憤怒：兩位加密分析師提供對比的觀點

在有關比特幣市場軌蹟的持續辯論中，兩位著名的加密分析師在X上分享了對比的觀點，強調了社區分裂的情緒。

Two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on the ongoing Bitcoin market downturn, with one seeing the possibility of further lows and another suggesting that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing an 87.5% probability.

兩位著名的加密分析師在正在進行的比特幣市場下滑上分享了對比的觀點，其中一位看到了進一步的低點的可能性，另一位表明市場最糟糕的市場衰退已經過去，認為這是87.5％的概率。

Bitcoin Bears In Trouble?

比特幣遇到麻煩？

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit took to X to highlight two potential paths for Bitcoin. “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.”

加密分析師的醫生利潤拿到X，突出了比特幣的兩條潛在途徑。 “有兩種情況：a）在正常市場中，底部為68-74K地區，b）在黑天鵝事件中朝50k墜毀。”

He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it.

他沒有為兩種結果提供具體的可能性，但強調一個黑天鵝事件（用於描述罕見，意外的事件，可能會對市場產生巨大影響的術語）被排除在外。儘管他指出以前不太可能出現這種非凡的衰退，但他現在承認，宏觀景觀最近發生的變化可能會為此留出空間。

“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.”

“賭你的賭注，我想說的是，在過去的幾個月中，黑天鵝事件不太可能，但是現在問我，我不會排除它，而是歡迎它。”

In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time.

相比之下，加密分析師天文學家的反應更加看好，並斷言底部已經在我們身後。他在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議上提到了比特幣價格逆轉的記錄，聲稱其“ 16次中有14次”，約為87.5％的時間。

“Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.”

“不能保證，但是有87.5％的機會，授予下面的圖表以及我已經提出的所有融合。到目前為止，一切都很好。”

His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer’s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five “2D bars” before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself.

他的方法依賴於在靠近FOMC日期的附近繪製價格變動，並指出在官方公告之前，市場經常在利率決策（及相關新聞）中定價。天文學家的方法認為，比特幣通常會在FOMC日期到會議本身的日期之前從最高五個“ 2D bar”窗口中找到本地底部。

“All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes.

“它所需要的只是每天（在我的情況下每天或每天2次，以保持圖表清潔）的時間範圍，繪製出出現的所有日期FOMC會議，並查看價格的做法。這表明，當時間接近FOMC時，價格確實會逆轉。警告是，在FOMC日，價格在最近或最新的情況下倒轉。”分析師寫道。

He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.”

他指出，下一次FOMC會議定於3月19日舉行，這意味著底部（如果歷史模式成立）可能不晚於那個日期：“幾乎每次工作，實際上是16次（或87.5％的時間）……時間差異的時間差，FOMC日的底部發生在確切日期之前的FOMC日是0到5 2d bars。鑑於下一個FOMC是3月19日，這意味著最低點是當天的最新情況，也是3月5日的最早。”

To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as “peaking fear” in the market. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent:

為了加強他的論點，天文學家指出了他認為市場上“恐懼的最高恐懼”。他認為，從既定的商人的典型信號表明反彈可能是迫在眉睫的信號：

“Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are posting advice and cautionary posts out of nowhere which is a bear market bottom signal. I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.”

“明智的情緒，恐懼達到了搞笑的水平。甚至“著名的”貿易商也在無處發表建議和警告帖子，這是熊市底部信號。我不怪任何人的方法，但我認為這是底部的一個很好的跡象。”

At press time, BTC traded at $83,277.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為83,277美元。