比特币（BTC）市场认为稳定是美国CPI发布的Bolsters对即将降低利率的期望

加密市场已经看到了最近的稳定，尤其是比特币暂时超过200天的简单移动平均线

The crypto market has seen some stabilization recently, with Bitcoin momentarily surpassing the 200-day simple moving average at $84,000. This surge can be largely attributed to the recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which came in less severely than anticipated, boosting hopes for earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

加密市场最近已经稳定了一些稳定，比特币暂时超过了200天的简单移动平均水平，为84,000美元。这种激增可能主要归因于最近的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，该报告的严重程度不如预期，这增加了对美联储降低预期利率的希望。

In the last 24 hours, the recovery was driven mainly by the memecoin sector, along with tokens from layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains, as well as artificial intelligence tokens, according to data from Velo. However, lingering issues like President Trump's tariffs, fears of a possible recession in the U.S., and volatility within the bond markets pose risks to this rebound.

根据Velo的数据，在过去的24小时内，恢复主要是由Memecoin部门驱动的，以及第1层和2层区块链的令牌以及人工智能令牌。但是，诸如特朗普总统的关税，担心美国可能衰退的问题以及债券市场中的波动率持续的问题对这一反弹构成风险。

Two key factors suggest the potential for sustained improvement. Firstly, the approaching quarter-end rebalancing indicates that funds, which became overweight in bonds as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped 6% and 4.8% respectively this quarter, are likely to sell bonds in favor of equities. Historically, this has benefited Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlations with tech stocks.

两个关键因素表明潜在的持续改进。首先，即将到来的四分之一末期的重新平衡表明，由于本季度纳斯达克和标准普尔500分别下降了6％和4.8％，资金在债券中已超重，可能会出售债券以支持股票。从历史上看，鉴于与技术股票有很强的相关性，这使比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场受益。

Secondly, the Japanese yen has faced significant pressure. Earlier analysis suggested that bullish positioning in the yen could stabilize the crypto market. The yen, typically a safe haven, may continue to weaken, especially as U.S. bond yields increase due to the anticipated equity rebalancing. This implies that the risk-off sentiment driven by JPY strength and the paring down of yen carry trades may soon pass.

其次，日元面临巨大压力。较早的分析表明，在日元中的看涨定位可以稳定加密市场。日元通常是避风港，可能会继续削弱，尤其是由于预期的股权重新平衡，美国债券收益率的增加。这意味着由JPY力量驱动的风险情绪和日元携带交易的削减可能很快就会通过。

Furthermore, an environment of positive net global liquidity, largely influenced by macroeconomic conditions in China and the U.S., could encourage risk-taking among investors. Commenting on this development, Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment advisor, pointed out that recent trends indicate a decrease in U.S. inflation, which should reduce pressure on non-U.S. central bank bonds, including those linked to the yen.

此外，在全球流动性积极的环境中，在很大程度上受到中国和美国的宏观经济状况的影响，可以鼓励投资者冒险冒险。在对这一发展的评论时，两位Prime是SEC注册的投资顾问，指出最近的趋势表明，美国通货膨胀率有所下降，这应减少对非美国中央银行债券的压力，包括与日元有关的压力。

Despite these dynamics, volatility remains a concern. The options market on Deribit shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. This indicates that dealers will likely engage in trading activity that increases market volatility to maintain their neutral exposures.

尽管有这些动态，但波动仍然是一个关注的问题。 Deribit上的期权市场显示出显着的负经销商Gamma在81,000美元至87,000美元之间。这表明经销商可能会从事贸易活动，从而增加市场波动以维持其中性暴露。

Looking ahead, market participants are awaiting news updates. The U.S. data release concerning February's producer price index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims is scheduled for today. Analysts anticipate that an unexpectedly high PPI report may spur a volatility backwash across risk assets.

展望未来，市场参与者正在等待新闻更新。有关2月生产商价格指数（PPI）和每周失业索赔的美国数据发布计划于今天。分析师预计，意外高的PPI报告可能会刺激风险资产的波动性反射。

Market Watch and Updates:

市场观察和更新：

Macro Events: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will disclose February PPI later today.

宏事件：美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于今天晚些时候披露2月PPI。

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