比特幣（BTC）市場認為穩定是美國CPI發布的Bolsters對即將降低利率的期望

加密市場已經看到了最近的穩定，尤其是比特幣暫時超過200天的簡單移動平均線

The crypto market has seen some stabilization recently, with Bitcoin momentarily surpassing the 200-day simple moving average at $84,000. This surge can be largely attributed to the recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which came in less severely than anticipated, boosting hopes for earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

加密市場最近已經穩定了一些穩定，比特幣暫時超過了200天的簡單移動平均水平，為84,000美元。這種激增可能主要歸因於最近的美國消費者價格指數（CPI）報告，該報告的嚴重程度不如預期，這增加了對美聯儲降低預期利率的希望。

In the last 24 hours, the recovery was driven mainly by the memecoin sector, along with tokens from layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains, as well as artificial intelligence tokens, according to data from Velo. However, lingering issues like President Trump's tariffs, fears of a possible recession in the U.S., and volatility within the bond markets pose risks to this rebound.

根據Velo的數據，在過去的24小時內，恢復主要是由Memecoin部門驅動的，以及第1層和2層區塊鏈的令牌以及人工智能令牌。但是，諸如特朗普總統的關稅，擔心美國可能衰退的問題以及債券市場中的波動率持續的問題對這一反彈構成風險。

Two key factors suggest the potential for sustained improvement. Firstly, the approaching quarter-end rebalancing indicates that funds, which became overweight in bonds as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped 6% and 4.8% respectively this quarter, are likely to sell bonds in favor of equities. Historically, this has benefited Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlations with tech stocks.

兩個關鍵因素表明潛在的持續改進。首先，即將到來的四分之一末期的重新平衡表明，由於本季度納斯達克和標準普爾500分別下降了6％和4.8％，資金在債券中已超重，可能會出售債券以支持股票。從歷史上看，鑑於與技術股票有很強的相關性，這使比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場受益。

Secondly, the Japanese yen has faced significant pressure. Earlier analysis suggested that bullish positioning in the yen could stabilize the crypto market. The yen, typically a safe haven, may continue to weaken, especially as U.S. bond yields increase due to the anticipated equity rebalancing. This implies that the risk-off sentiment driven by JPY strength and the paring down of yen carry trades may soon pass.

其次，日元面臨巨大壓力。較早的分析表明，在日元中的看漲定位可以穩定加密市場。日元通常是避風港，可能會繼續削弱，尤其是由於預期的股權重新平衡，美國債券收益率的增加。這意味著由JPY力量驅動的風險情緒和日元攜帶交易的削減可能很快就會通過。

Furthermore, an environment of positive net global liquidity, largely influenced by macroeconomic conditions in China and the U.S., could encourage risk-taking among investors. Commenting on this development, Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment advisor, pointed out that recent trends indicate a decrease in U.S. inflation, which should reduce pressure on non-U.S. central bank bonds, including those linked to the yen.

此外，在全球流動性積極的環境中，在很大程度上受到中國和美國的宏觀經濟狀況的影響，可以鼓勵投資者冒險冒險。在對這一發展的評論時，兩位Prime是SEC註冊的投資顧問，指出最近的趨勢表明，美國通貨膨脹率有所下降，這應減少對非美國中央銀行債券的壓力，包括與日元有關的壓力。

Despite these dynamics, volatility remains a concern. The options market on Deribit shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. This indicates that dealers will likely engage in trading activity that increases market volatility to maintain their neutral exposures.

儘管有這些動態，但波動仍然是一個關注的問題。 Deribit上的期權市場顯示出顯著的負經銷商Gamma在81,000美元至87,000美元之間。這表明經銷商可能會從事貿易活動，從而增加市場波動以維持其中性暴露。

Looking ahead, market participants are awaiting news updates. The U.S. data release concerning February's producer price index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims is scheduled for today. Analysts anticipate that an unexpectedly high PPI report may spur a volatility backwash across risk assets.

展望未來，市場參與者正在等待新聞更新。有關2月生產商價格指數（PPI）和每週失業索賠的美國數據發布計劃於今天。分析師預計，意外高的PPI報告可能會刺激風險資產的波動性反射。

Market Watch and Updates:

市場觀察和更新：

Macro Events: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will disclose February PPI later today.

宏事件：美國勞工統計局（BLS）將於今天晚些時候披露2月PPI。

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