比特币（BTC）市场面临不确定性的时刻，因为BTC失去了对黄金（XAU）的看涨趋势

加密货币市场面临着比特币（BTC）的不确定性时刻，他对持续了12年以上的黄金（XAU）失去了公牛趋势。

The cryptocurrency market is facing a moment of uncertainty with Bitcoin (BTC) having lost a bull trend against gold (XAU) that lasted over 12 years.

加密货币市场面临着比特币（BTC）的不确定性时刻，他对持续了12年以上的黄金（XAU）失去了公牛趋势。

On March 14, 2025, the cryptocurrency breached a historical support line in the BTC/XAU ratio, raising doubts about its future trend.

2025年3月14日，加密货币违反了BTC/XAU比率的历史支持线，引起了对其未来趋势的怀疑。

Analysts like NorthStar warn that this signal could indicate the end of the bull market if BTC remains below this level for a week or more.

像Northstar这样的分析师警告说，如果BTC保持一周或更长时间，则该信号可能表明牛市的结束。

Gold at all-time highs while Bitcoin loses momentum

黄金在历史最高点，而比特币失去动力

The recent drop in the BTC/XAU ratio coincides with the new record of the gold price, which surpassed 3,000 dollars per ounce on March 14. This year the precious metal has recorded a growth of 12.80%, while Bitcoin has lost 11% in the same period.

BTC/XAU比率最近的下降与新价值的新记录相吻合，金价的新记录在3月14日超过每盎司3,000美元。今年，贵金属的增长率为12.80％，而比特币在同一时期损失了11％。

The differences in the net flows of exchange-traded funds (ETF) highlight this divergence.

交换基金（ETF）的净流量的差异突出了这一分歧。

Gold-based ETFs in the United States have attracted over 6.48 billion dollars since the beginning of the year, according to the World Gold Council. Globally, inflows into gold-related funds have reached 23.18 billion dollars.

根据世界黄金委员会的数据，自今年年初以来，美国的黄金ETF吸引了超过64.8亿美元。在全球范围内，流入与黄金相关的资金的流入已达到231.8亿美元。

On the contrary, the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced outflows of approximately 1.46 billion dollars, according to data from the Glassnode platform.

相反，根据GlassNode平台的数据，美国的现货比特币ETF经历了约14.6亿美元的流出。

This capital shift reflects risk aversion sentiments and macroeconomic uncertainty, fueled by the aggressive trade policies of President Donald Trump, who introduced new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada.

这种资本转变反映了风险厌恶情绪和宏观经济的不确定性，这是由唐纳德·特朗普总统的积极贸易政策推动的，唐纳德·特朗普对中国，墨西哥和加拿大提出了新的关税。

These moves have increased fears of a global recession, pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

这些举动增加了人们对全球衰退的恐惧，将投资者推向了黄金等避风付款资产。

Central banks such as those of the United States, China, and the United Kingdom have also increased their gold reserves, further contributing to the rise in the price of gold.

美国，中国和英国等中央银行也增加了黄金储量，进一步促进了黄金价格的上涨。

On the other hand, Bitcoin seems to follow a behavior more similar to risk assets. On March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76, indicating a strong dependence on the stock markets.

另一方面，比特币似乎遵循与风险资产更相似的行为。 3月14日，其52周的相关系数与纳斯达克综合指数为0.76，表明对股票市场有很强的依赖。

Could Bitcoin face a significant decline?

比特币会面临大幅下降吗？

The current trend of the BTC/XAU ratio recalls historical patterns already observed, particularly the period between March 2021 and March 2022, which preceded the last bear market of criptovalute.

BTC/XAU比率的当前趋势让人联想了已经观察到的历史模式，尤其是在2021年3月至2022年3月之间的时期，这是Criptovalute的最后一个熊市。

During that phase, the BTC/XAU showed a bear divergence, where prices continued to rise but with a relative strength index (RSI) in decline.

在此阶段，BTC/XAU显示出熊的差异，价格持续上涨，但相对强度指数（RSI）下降。

This loss of momentum initially led the BTC/XAU ratio to test the 50-period exponential moving average over two weeks (50-2W EMA) before undergoing a drastic 60% decline.

这种动量损失最初导致BTC/XAU比在两周内测试50个周期的指数移动平均值（50-2W EMA），然后下降了60％。

In the same period, Bitcoin experienced a 68% correction against the US dollar.

在同一时期，比特币对美元进行了68％的更正。

Currently, similar signals are reappearing: the recent break of BTC/XAU below the key support could be the beginning of a new bear phase.

当前，类似的信号是重新出现的：BTC/XAU在关键支持下的最近中断可能是新熊阶段的开始。

If the BTC/XAU ratio were to decisively fall below the support of the 50-2W EMA (around 26 XAU), Bitcoin could face downward pressure even against the dollar.

如果BTC/XAU的比率果断地低于50-2W EMA（约26 XAU）的支持，那么即使是美元，比特币也可能面对向下压力。

If the current phase were to follow the same trajectory as 2021-2022, Bitcoin could drop to 65,000 dollars, a decline of about 40% compared to its all-time high of 110,000 dollars recorded in January 2025.

如果当前阶段遵循与2021-2022相同的轨迹，则比特币可能会降至65,000美元，而下降了约40％，而其历史最高点的110,000美元在2025年1月记录。

Some analysts, including those from Nansen, see these movements as a correction within a bull market. If the 50-2W EMA holds, Bitcoin could still return to gaining value.

一些分析师，包括来自Nansen的分析师，将这些运动视为牛市中的纠正。如果50-2W EMA成立，则比特币仍然可以恢复获得价值。

However, a decisive break below this critical level could push the cryptocurrency into a true bear market, with a potential downside target around 34,850 dollars, corresponding to the 200-2W EMA.

但是，低于此关键水平的决定性突破可能会将加密货币推向真正的熊市，潜在的下行目标约为34,850美元，与200-2W EMA相对应。

Bitcoin at a crossroads

比特币在十字路口

The recent break in the BTC/XAU ratio and the growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset could indicate significant changes in the financial markets.

BTC/XAU比率最近的突破以及对黄金的日益增长的兴趣，因为避风港资产可能表明金融市场发生了重大变化。

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness compared to gold and even in dollars it could face further declines.

比特币显示出与黄金相比的迹象，即使是美元，也可能面临进一步下降的迹象。

If the 2021-2022 pattern were to repeat, BTC could drop to $65,000 or, in an extreme scenario, reach $34,850. However, holding key support levels could open the door to a bull reversal.

如果要重复2021-2022模式，BTC可能会降至65,000美元，或者在极端情况下达到34,850美元。但是，保持关键支撑水平可能打开牛逆转的大门。

Investors should closely monitor the upcoming developments, considering both the macroeconomic context and the dynamics of Bitcoin’s demand and supply.

考虑到宏观经济环境和比特币需求和供应的动态，投资者应密切监视即将到来的发展。