比特幣（BTC）市場面臨不確定性的時刻，因為BTC失去了對黃金（XAU）的看漲趨勢

加密貨幣市場面臨著比特幣（BTC）的不確定性時刻，他對持續了12年以上的黃金（XAU）失去了公牛趨勢。

The cryptocurrency market is facing a moment of uncertainty with Bitcoin (BTC) having lost a bull trend against gold (XAU) that lasted over 12 years.

加密貨幣市場面臨著比特幣（BTC）的不確定性時刻，他對持續了12年以上的黃金（XAU）失去了公牛趨勢。

On March 14, 2025, the cryptocurrency breached a historical support line in the BTC/XAU ratio, raising doubts about its future trend.

2025年3月14日，加密貨幣違反了BTC/XAU比率的歷史支持線，引起了對其未來趨勢的懷疑。

Analysts like NorthStar warn that this signal could indicate the end of the bull market if BTC remains below this level for a week or more.

像Northstar這樣的分析師警告說，如果BTC保持一周或更長時間，則該信號可能表明牛市的結束。

Gold at all-time highs while Bitcoin loses momentum

黃金在歷史最高點，而比特幣失去動力

The recent drop in the BTC/XAU ratio coincides with the new record of the gold price, which surpassed 3,000 dollars per ounce on March 14. This year the precious metal has recorded a growth of 12.80%, while Bitcoin has lost 11% in the same period.

BTC/XAU比率最近的下降與新價值的新記錄相吻合，金價的新記錄在3月14日超過每盎司3,000美元。今年，貴金屬的增長率為12.80％，而比特幣在同一時期損失了11％。

The differences in the net flows of exchange-traded funds (ETF) highlight this divergence.

交換基金（ETF）的淨流量的差異突出了這一分歧。

Gold-based ETFs in the United States have attracted over 6.48 billion dollars since the beginning of the year, according to the World Gold Council. Globally, inflows into gold-related funds have reached 23.18 billion dollars.

根據世界黃金委員會的數據，自今年年初以來，美國的黃金ETF吸引了超過64.8億美元。在全球範圍內，流入與黃金相關的資金的流入已達到231.8億美元。

On the contrary, the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced outflows of approximately 1.46 billion dollars, according to data from the Glassnode platform.

相反，根據GlassNode平台的數據，美國的現貨比特幣ETF經歷了約14.6億美元的流出。

This capital shift reflects risk aversion sentiments and macroeconomic uncertainty, fueled by the aggressive trade policies of President Donald Trump, who introduced new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada.

這種資本轉變反映了風險厭惡情緒和宏觀經濟的不確定性，這是由唐納德·特朗普總統的積極貿易政策推動的，唐納德·特朗普對中國，墨西哥和加拿大提出了新的關稅。

These moves have increased fears of a global recession, pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

這些舉動增加了人們對全球衰退的恐懼，將投資者推向了黃金等避風付款資產。

Central banks such as those of the United States, China, and the United Kingdom have also increased their gold reserves, further contributing to the rise in the price of gold.

美國，中國和英國等中央銀行也增加了黃金儲量，進一步促進了黃金價格的上漲。

On the other hand, Bitcoin seems to follow a behavior more similar to risk assets. On March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76, indicating a strong dependence on the stock markets.

另一方面，比特幣似乎遵循與風險資產更相似的行為。 3月14日，其52週的相關係數與納斯達克綜合指數為0.76，表明對股票市場有很強的依賴。

Could Bitcoin face a significant decline?

比特幣會面臨大幅下降嗎？

The current trend of the BTC/XAU ratio recalls historical patterns already observed, particularly the period between March 2021 and March 2022, which preceded the last bear market of criptovalute.

BTC/XAU比率的當前趨勢讓人聯想了已經觀察到的歷史模式，尤其是在2021年3月至2022年3月之間的時期，這是Criptovalute的最後一個熊市。

During that phase, the BTC/XAU showed a bear divergence, where prices continued to rise but with a relative strength index (RSI) in decline.

在此階段，BTC/XAU顯示出熊的差異，價格持續上漲，但相對強度指數（RSI）下降。

This loss of momentum initially led the BTC/XAU ratio to test the 50-period exponential moving average over two weeks (50-2W EMA) before undergoing a drastic 60% decline.

這種動量損失最初導致BTC/XAU比在兩週內測試50個週期的指數移動平均值（50-2W EMA），然後下降了60％。

In the same period, Bitcoin experienced a 68% correction against the US dollar.

在同一時期，比特幣對美元進行了68％的更正。

Currently, similar signals are reappearing: the recent break of BTC/XAU below the key support could be the beginning of a new bear phase.

當前，類似的信號是重新出現的：BTC/XAU在關鍵支持下的最近中斷可能是新熊階段的開始。

If the BTC/XAU ratio were to decisively fall below the support of the 50-2W EMA (around 26 XAU), Bitcoin could face downward pressure even against the dollar.

如果BTC/XAU的比率果斷地低於50-2W EMA（約26 XAU）的支持，那麼即使是美元，比特幣也可能面對向下壓力。

If the current phase were to follow the same trajectory as 2021-2022, Bitcoin could drop to 65,000 dollars, a decline of about 40% compared to its all-time high of 110,000 dollars recorded in January 2025.

如果當前階段遵循與2021-2022相同的軌跡，則比特幣可能會降至65,000美元，而下降了約40％，而其歷史最高點的110,000美元在2025年1月記錄。

Some analysts, including those from Nansen, see these movements as a correction within a bull market. If the 50-2W EMA holds, Bitcoin could still return to gaining value.

一些分析師，包括來自Nansen的分析師，將這些運動視為牛市中的糾正。如果50-2W EMA成立，則比特幣仍然可以恢復獲得價值。

However, a decisive break below this critical level could push the cryptocurrency into a true bear market, with a potential downside target around 34,850 dollars, corresponding to the 200-2W EMA.

但是，低於此關鍵水平的決定性突破可能會將加密貨幣推向真正的熊市，潛在的下行目標約為34,850美元，與200-2W EMA相對應。

Bitcoin at a crossroads

比特幣在十字路口

The recent break in the BTC/XAU ratio and the growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset could indicate significant changes in the financial markets.

BTC/XAU比率最近的突破以及對黃金的日益增長的興趣，因為避風港資產可能表明金融市場發生了重大變化。

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness compared to gold and even in dollars it could face further declines.

比特幣顯示出與黃金相比的跡象，即使是美元，也可能面臨進一步下降的跡象。

If the 2021-2022 pattern were to repeat, BTC could drop to $65,000 or, in an extreme scenario, reach $34,850. However, holding key support levels could open the door to a bull reversal.

如果要重複2021-2022模式，BTC可能會降至65,000美元，或者在極端情況下達到34,850美元。但是，保持關鍵支撐水平可能打開牛逆轉的大門。

Investors should closely monitor the upcoming developments, considering both the macroeconomic context and the dynamics of Bitcoin’s demand and supply.

考慮到宏觀經濟環境和比特幣需求和供應的動態，投資者應密切監視即將到來的發展。