随着 Tether (USDT) 流出与 BTC 流入相遇，比特币 (BTC) 市场动态发生变化，预示着潜在的下行趋势

Bitcoin’s price action has been closely followed by both retail and institutional investors, with on-chain data providing valuable insights into the short-term trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency.

比特币的价格走势一直受到散户和机构投资者的密切关注，链上数据为了解领先加密货币的短期轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。

Fresh data shows a shift in exchange activity, where Tether (USDT) is experiencing significant outflows, while Bitcoin (BTC) inflows into exchanges remain high. This trend, highlighted by CryptoQuant, could indicate an “imbalance” in market dynamics, potentially leading to increased selling pressure and further price corrections in the short term.

最新数据显示，交易所活动发生转变，Tether (USDT) 正在经历大量资金流出，而比特币 (BTC) 流入交易所的量仍然很高。 CryptoQuant 强调的这一趋势可能表明市场动态存在“不平衡”，可能导致短期内抛售压力增加和进一步价格调整。

Highlighting this observation, CryptoQuant analyst Onatt noted the entry of over 15,000 BTC into exchanges, a metric that has historically been linked to a higher probability of sell-offs. At the same time, the exchange boasts a large amount of USDT liquidity, which is being depleted.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Onatt 强调了这一观察结果，指出有超过 15,000 枚 BTC 进入交易所，这一指标历来与较高的抛售可能性相关。与此同时，交易所拥有大量USDT流动性，但流动性正在枯竭。

Significant amounts of Tether (USDT) are exiting exchanges, and a large inflow of Bitcoin (BTC) (>15K) has been observed entering exchanges.

大量 Tether (USDT) 正在退出交易所，并且观察到大量比特币 (BTC) (>15K) 流入交易所。

— Onatt (@tutunculeronat) December 24, 2024

- Onatt (@tutunculeronat) 2024 年 12 月 24 日

Such movements have often coincided with short-term price declines, as traders and institutions reposition their portfolios amidst market volatility. However, Onatt adds that there are no major macroeconomic catalysts that could lead to a prolonged bearish trend.

这种走势往往与短期价格下跌同时发生，因为交易者和机构在市场波动中重新配置其投资组合。然而，奥纳特补充说，不存在可能导致长期看跌趋势的主要宏观经济催化剂。

Key Takeaways:

要点：

On-chain data reveals a shift in exchange activity, with Tether (USDT) experiencing significant outflows.

链上数据显示交易活动发生变化，Tether (USDT) 出现大量资金外流。

This trend could indicate an “imbalance” in market dynamics, potentially leading to increased selling pressure and further price corrections in the short term.

这种趋势可能表明市场动态“失衡”，可能导致短期内抛售压力增加和进一步的价格调整。

CryptoQuant analysis shows over 15,000 BTC entering exchanges, increasing the likelihood of sell-offs.

CryptoQuant 分析显示，超过 15,000 枚 BTC 进入交易所，增加了抛售的可能性。

At the same time, a large amount of USDT liquidity is being depleted within these exchanges.

与此同时，这些交易所内大量的USDT流动性正在耗尽。

Historically, such movements have been linked to short-term price declines, as traders and institutional investors adjust their portfolios amid market volatility.

从历史上看，这种走势与短期价格下跌有关，因为交易者和机构投资者在市场波动时调整其投资组合。

However, there are no significant macroeconomic catalysts that could drive a prolonged bearish trend.

然而，没有重大的宏观经济催化剂可以推动长期看跌趋势。

Another perspective on Bitcoin’s price behavior comes from TraderOasis, who highlights several metrics that influence the coin’s price movements.

关于比特币价格行为的另一个观点来自 TraderOasis，他强调了影响比特币价格走势的几个指标。

One key observation is the behavior of the Coinbase Premium Index, which, according to Oasis, failed to follow Bitcoin’s upward movement during its last price surge. This metric, which measures the price premium of BTC on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, is often used to gauge the strength of buying activity from US-based investors.

一个关键的观察结果是 Coinbase 溢价指数的行为，根据 Oasis 的说法，该指数未能跟随比特币在上次价格飙升期间的上涨走势。该指标衡量 Coinbase 上 BTC 相对于其他交易所的价格溢价，通常用于衡量美国投资者购买活动的强度。

As a Result, the Price Retreated. We Are Now in Negative Territory. I Expect a Break in the Market for the Continuation of the Rise.

结果，价格回落。我们现在处于负面区域。我预计市场会出现突破，从而继续上涨。

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) December 24, 2024

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) 2024 年 12 月 24 日

As Oasis points out, this disconnect is significant because it indicates a lack of strong buying activity from US-based investors, who are often considered a major driver of Bitcoin’s upward momentum. The analyst also notes that the funding rates have started to decline while open interest levels are rising.

正如 Oasis 指出的那样，这种脱节很重要，因为它表明美国投资者缺乏强劲的购买活动，而美国投资者通常被认为是比特币上涨势头的主要推动力。分析师还指出，融资利率已开始下降，而未平仓合约水平却在上升。

Another analysis shows that the funding rates are declining while the open interest is rising. This usually indicates that traders are opening more short positions.

另一项分析显示，资金利率正在下降，而未平仓合约却在上升。这通常表明交易者正在开设更多空头头寸。

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) December 24, 2024

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) 2024 年 12 月 24 日

This observation is particularly relevant for the derivatives market, where traders can open short positions to bet on an asset’s price decrease. If a large number of traders open short positions, it can create a scenario where the market is “overcrowded” on one side, potentially leading to difficulties in sustaining a prolonged downtrend.

这一观察结果与衍生品市场尤其相关，交易者可以开设空头头寸来押注资产价格下跌。如果大量交易者开立空头头寸，可能会造成市场一方面“过度拥挤”的情况，可能导致维持长期下跌趋势的困难。

Highlighting Key Points:

强调要点：

The Coinbase Premium Index failed to follow Bitcoin’s upward movement during its last price surge.

Coinbase 溢价指数未能跟随比特币上次价格飙升期间的上涨走势。

This metric indicates a lack of strong buying activity from US-based investors, who are often considered a major driver of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

该指标表明美国投资者缺乏强劲的购买活动，而美国投资者通常被认为是比特币上涨势头的主要推动力。

Funding rates are declining, and open interest is rising, suggesting bearish sentiment in the derivatives market.

资金利率正在下降，未平仓合约正在上升，表明衍生品市场的看跌情绪。

This scenario could indicate difficulties in sustaining a prolonged bearish trend.

这种情况可能表明维持长期看跌趋势存在困难。