隨著 Tether (USDT) 流出與 BTC 流入相遇，比特幣 (BTC) 市場動態發生變化，預示著潛在的下行趨勢

Bitcoin’s price action has been closely followed by both retail and institutional investors, with on-chain data providing valuable insights into the short-term trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency.

比特幣的價格走勢一直受到散戶和機構投資者的密切關注，鏈上數據為了解領先加密貨幣的短期軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。

Fresh data shows a shift in exchange activity, where Tether (USDT) is experiencing significant outflows, while Bitcoin (BTC) inflows into exchanges remain high. This trend, highlighted by CryptoQuant, could indicate an “imbalance” in market dynamics, potentially leading to increased selling pressure and further price corrections in the short term.

最新數據顯示，交易所活動發生轉變，Tether (USDT) 正在經歷大量資金流出，而比特幣 (BTC) 流入交易所的量仍然很高。 CryptoQuant 強調的這一趨勢可能表明市場動態存在“不平衡”，可能導致短期內拋售壓力增加和進一步價格調整。

Highlighting this observation, CryptoQuant analyst Onatt noted the entry of over 15,000 BTC into exchanges, a metric that has historically been linked to a higher probability of sell-offs. At the same time, the exchange boasts a large amount of USDT liquidity, which is being depleted.

CryptoQuant 分析師 Onatt 強調了這一觀察結果，指出有超過 15,000 枚 BTC 進入交易所，這一指標歷來與較高的拋售可能性相關。同時，交易所擁有大量USDT流動性，但流動性正在枯竭。

Significant amounts of Tether (USDT) are exiting exchanges, and a large inflow of Bitcoin (BTC) (>15K) has been observed entering exchanges.

大量 Tether (USDT) 正在退出交易所，並觀察到大量比特幣 (BTC) (>15K) 流入交易所。

— Onatt (@tutunculeronat) December 24, 2024

- Onatt (@tutunculeronat) 2024 年 12 月 24 日

Such movements have often coincided with short-term price declines, as traders and institutions reposition their portfolios amidst market volatility. However, Onatt adds that there are no major macroeconomic catalysts that could lead to a prolonged bearish trend.

這種走勢往往與短期價格下跌同時發生，因為交易者和機構在市場波動中重新配置其投資組合。然而，奧納特補充說，不存在可能導致長期看跌趨勢的主要宏觀經濟催化劑。

Key Takeaways:

要點：

On-chain data reveals a shift in exchange activity, with Tether (USDT) experiencing significant outflows.

鏈上數據顯示交易活動發生變化，Tether (USDT) 出現大量資金外流。

This trend could indicate an “imbalance” in market dynamics, potentially leading to increased selling pressure and further price corrections in the short term.

這種趨勢可能表明市場動態“失衡”，可能導致短期內拋售壓力增加和進一步價格調整。

CryptoQuant analysis shows over 15,000 BTC entering exchanges, increasing the likelihood of sell-offs.

CryptoQuant 分析顯示，超過 15,000 枚 BTC 進入交易所，增加了拋售的可能性。

At the same time, a large amount of USDT liquidity is being depleted within these exchanges.

同時，這些交易所內大量的USDT流動性正在耗盡。

Historically, such movements have been linked to short-term price declines, as traders and institutional investors adjust their portfolios amid market volatility.

從歷史上看，這種走勢與短期價格下跌有關，因為交易者和機構投資者在市場波動時調整其投資組合。

However, there are no significant macroeconomic catalysts that could drive a prolonged bearish trend.

然而，沒有重大的宏觀經濟催化劑可以推動長期看跌趨勢。

Another perspective on Bitcoin’s price behavior comes from TraderOasis, who highlights several metrics that influence the coin’s price movements.

關於比特幣價格行為的另一個觀點來自 TraderOasis，他強調了影響比特幣價格趨勢的幾個指標。

One key observation is the behavior of the Coinbase Premium Index, which, according to Oasis, failed to follow Bitcoin’s upward movement during its last price surge. This metric, which measures the price premium of BTC on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, is often used to gauge the strength of buying activity from US-based investors.

一個關鍵的觀察是 Coinbase 溢價指數的行為，根據 Oasis 的說法，該指數未能跟隨比特幣在上次價格飆升期間的上漲走勢。此指標衡量 Coinbase 上 BTC 相對於其他交易所的價格溢價，通常用於衡量美國投資者購買活動的強度。

As a Result, the Price Retreated. We Are Now in Negative Territory. I Expect a Break in the Market for the Continuation of the Rise.

結果，價格回落。我們現在處於負面區域。我預期市場會出現突破，從而繼續上漲。

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) December 24, 2024

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) 2024 年 12 月 24 日

As Oasis points out, this disconnect is significant because it indicates a lack of strong buying activity from US-based investors, who are often considered a major driver of Bitcoin’s upward momentum. The analyst also notes that the funding rates have started to decline while open interest levels are rising.

正如 Oasis 指出的那樣，這種脫節很重要，因為它表明美國投資者缺乏強勁的購買活動，而美國投資者通常被認為是比特幣上漲勢頭的主要推動力。該分析師也指出，融資利率已開始下降，而未平倉合約水準卻在上升。

Another analysis shows that the funding rates are declining while the open interest is rising. This usually indicates that traders are opening more short positions.

另一項分析顯示，資金利率正在下降，而未平倉合約卻在上升。這通常表明交易者正在開設更多空頭部位。

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) December 24, 2024

— TraderOasis (@TraderOasis_) 2024 年 12 月 24 日

This observation is particularly relevant for the derivatives market, where traders can open short positions to bet on an asset’s price decrease. If a large number of traders open short positions, it can create a scenario where the market is “overcrowded” on one side, potentially leading to difficulties in sustaining a prolonged downtrend.

這項觀察結果與衍生性商品市場尤其相關，交易者可以開設空頭部位來押注資產價格下跌。如果大量交易者開立空頭頭寸，可能會造成市場一方面「過度擁擠」的情況，可能導致維持長期下跌趨勢的困難。

Highlighting Key Points:

強調重點：

The Coinbase Premium Index failed to follow Bitcoin’s upward movement during its last price surge.

Coinbase 溢價指數未能跟隨比特幣上次價格飆升期間的上漲趨勢。

This metric indicates a lack of strong buying activity from US-based investors, who are often considered a major driver of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

該指標顯示美國投資者缺乏強勁的購買活動，而美國投資者通常被認為是比特幣上漲動能的主要動力。

Funding rates are declining, and open interest is rising, suggesting bearish sentiment in the derivatives market.

資金利率正在下降，未平倉合約正在上升，顯示衍生性商品市場的看跌情緒。

This scenario could indicate difficulties in sustaining a prolonged bearish trend.

這種情況可能表示維持長期看跌趨勢有困難。