减半前的不确定性依然存在，比特币 (BTC) 市场将迎来 2025 年的过山车

预计第一季度将有大量流动性注入美国经济，预计将达到 6120 亿美元，这将激发乐观情绪

A significant liquidity injection, estimated at $612 billion, is expected to enter the U.S. economy during the first quarter. This could fuel optimism for a potential Bitcoin rally despite lingering uncertainties.

预计第一季度将向美国经济注入约 6120 亿美元的大量流动资金。尽管不确定性挥之不去，但这可能会激发人们对比特币潜在反弹的乐观情绪。

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a vocal crypto commentator, predicts that this liquidity boost could offset regulatory delays.

BitMEX 联合创始人兼加密货币评论员 Arthur Hayes 预测，这种流动性的增加可能会抵消监管延迟。

“An extremely positive dollar liquidity environment can cover a letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation,” Hayes wrote in a recent blog post, underscoring the impact of fiscal policies on Bitcoin’s market dynamics.

海耶斯在最近的一篇博客文章中写道：“极其积极的美元流动性环境可以弥补特朗普团队对其提议的支持加密货币和支持商业立法的失望。”他强调了财政政策对比特币市场动态的影响。

A Rollercoaster Start to the Year

今年开局如过山车

Bitcoin recently experienced a sharp decline, dropping 6% to trade below the $100,000 mark—a psychological resistance level—on January 8. This dip followed a holiday-induced lull in institutional trading activity.

比特币最近经历了大幅下跌，1 月 8 日下跌 6%，跌破 10 万美元大关（心理阻力位）。这次下跌是在假期导致机构交易活动暂停之后发生的。

Analysts expect renewed institutional liquidity at the start of the year to bolster Bitcoin’s performance, potentially allowing it to reclaim and sustain six-figure valuations ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

分析师预计，今年年初机构流动性的恢复将提振比特币的表现，有可能使其在 1 月 20 日特朗普就职之前恢复并维持六位数的估值。

Bitcoin hit its bottom in Q3 2022 as the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) peaked.

随着美联储逆回购工具（RRP）达到顶峰，比特币在 2022 年第三季度触底。

Source: Arthur Hayes/Substack

资料来源：Arthur Hayes/Substack

According to Binance Research, institutional investors’ reentry could reignite Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

币安研究院表示，机构投资者的重新进入可能会重新点燃比特币的上涨动力。

“While BTC can recapture $100K on expectations of positive crypto regulation such as a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the market will need to see continued supportive conditions to maintain such levels,” the firm noted.

该公司指出：“虽然由于比特币战略储备等积极加密货币监管的预期，比特币可以重新夺回 10 万美元，但市场需要看到持续的支持条件才能维持这样的水平。”

Trump’s administration has promised pro-crypto policies, but analysts warn that delays in implementing a regulatory framework could dampen investor confidence in the short term. Hayes predicts that the market may face a correction by March, driven by these regulatory disappointments.

特朗普政府已承诺支持加密货币政策，但分析师警告称，监管框架实施的延迟可能会在短期内削弱投资者的信心。海耶斯预测，由于这些监管方面的失望，市场可能会在三月份面临调整。

However, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, citing an anticipated $20 trillion increase in global money supply that could channel $2 trillion into Bitcoin investments by late 2025.

不过，他对比特币的长期前景仍然持乐观态度，并指出全球货币供应量预计将增加 20 万亿美元，到 2025 年底，比特币投资可能会增加 2 万亿美元。

Diverging Market Opinions

市场意见分歧

Market sentiment remains divided. While Hayes predicts a bull run triggered by monetary expansion, not everyone is quite so optimistic.

市场情绪仍然存在分歧。尽管海耶斯预测货币扩张将引发牛市，但并非所有人都如此乐观。

Some technical analysts identified the formation of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that could force the price down to $80,000.

一些技术分析师发现，比特币周线图上形成了看跌头肩形态，可能会迫使价格跌至 80,000 美元。

Meanwhile, some proponents of Bitcoin’s long-term potential argue that it increasingly is being integrated into worldwide financial systems.

与此同时，一些比特币长期潜力的支持者认为，比特币正越来越多地融入全球金融体系。

U.S.-based Bitcoin mining firm MARA says a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve could trigger a global race for accumulation that would drive prices even higher.

总部位于美国的比特币矿业公司 MARA 表示，美国的比特币战略储备可能会引发全球比特币积累竞赛，从而推高价格。

Crypto Markets Brace for 2025 Fed Moves

加密货币市场为 2025 年美联储举措做好准备

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have become a central driver of Bitcoin’s market behavior. As global financial markets increasingly intertwine with cryptocurrency, decisions by institutions like the Fed will likely continue to influence Bitcoin’s price movements.

美联储的货币政策已成为比特币市场行为的核心驱动力。随着全球金融市场与加密货币的联系日益紧密，美联储等机构的决定可能会继续影响比特币的价格走势。

Despite current volatility, optimism persists within the crypto community. Analysts anticipate that Q1 2025 could be pivotal, with liquidity injections potentially catalyzing another Bitcoin bull run. However, sustaining such momentum will depend on regulatory clarity, institutional participation, and broader market conditions.

尽管当前存在波动，但加密货币社区的乐观情绪仍然存在。分析师预计 2025 年第一季度可能至关重要，流动性注入可能会催化另一场比特币牛市。然而，维持这种势头将取决于监管的明确性、机构的参与和更广泛的市场条件。

While the immediate outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, the convergence of fiscal policies, institutional interest, and technological integration suggests a dynamic year ahead for the cryptocurrency market.

尽管比特币的近期前景仍不确定，但财政政策、机构利益和技术整合的融合表明加密货币市场未来的一年将充满活力。