減半前的不確定性仍然存在，比特幣 (BTC) 市場將迎來 2025 年的雲霄飛車

預計第一季將有大量流動性注入美國經濟，預計將達到 6,120 億美元，這將激發樂觀情緒

A significant liquidity injection, estimated at $612 billion, is expected to enter the U.S. economy during the first quarter. This could fuel optimism for a potential Bitcoin rally despite lingering uncertainties.

預計第一季將向美國經濟注入約 6,120 億美元的大量流動資金。儘管不確定性揮之不去，但這可能會激發人們對比特幣潛在反彈的樂觀情緒。

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a vocal crypto commentator, predicts that this liquidity boost could offset regulatory delays.

BitMEX 聯合創始人兼加密貨幣評論員 Arthur Hayes 預測，這種流動性的增加可能會抵消監管延遲。

“An extremely positive dollar liquidity environment can cover a letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation,” Hayes wrote in a recent blog post, underscoring the impact of fiscal policies on Bitcoin’s market dynamics.

海耶斯在最近的一篇部落格文章中寫道：「極其積極的美元流動性環境可以彌補川普團隊對其提議的支持加密貨幣和支持商業立法的失望。」他強調了財政政策對比特幣市場動態的影響。

A Rollercoaster Start to the Year

今年開局如雲霄飛車

Bitcoin recently experienced a sharp decline, dropping 6% to trade below the $100,000 mark—a psychological resistance level—on January 8. This dip followed a holiday-induced lull in institutional trading activity.

比特幣最近經歷了大幅下跌，1 月 8 日下跌 6%，跌破 10 萬美元大關（心理阻力位）。

Analysts expect renewed institutional liquidity at the start of the year to bolster Bitcoin’s performance, potentially allowing it to reclaim and sustain six-figure valuations ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

分析師預計，今年年初機構流動性的恢復將提振比特幣的表現，有可能使其在 1 月 20 日川普就職之前恢復並維持六位數的估值。

Bitcoin hit its bottom in Q3 2022 as the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) peaked.

隨著聯準會逆回購工具（RRP）達到頂峰，比特幣在 2022 年第三季觸底。

Source: Arthur Hayes/Substack

資料來源：Arthur Hayes/Substack

According to Binance Research, institutional investors’ reentry could reignite Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

幣安研究院表示，機構投資者的重新進入可能會重新點燃比特幣的上漲動力。

“While BTC can recapture $100K on expectations of positive crypto regulation such as a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the market will need to see continued supportive conditions to maintain such levels,” the firm noted.

該公司指出：“雖然由於比特幣戰略儲備等積極加密貨幣監管的預期，比特幣可以重新奪回 10 萬美元，但市場需要看到持續的支持條件才能維持這樣的水平。”

Trump’s administration has promised pro-crypto policies, but analysts warn that delays in implementing a regulatory framework could dampen investor confidence in the short term. Hayes predicts that the market may face a correction by March, driven by these regulatory disappointments.

川普政府已承諾支持加密貨幣政策，但分析師警告稱，監管框架實施的延遲可能會在短期內削弱投資者的信心。海耶斯預測，由於這些監管方面的失望，市場可能會在三月面臨調整。

However, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, citing an anticipated $20 trillion increase in global money supply that could channel $2 trillion into Bitcoin investments by late 2025.

不過，他對比特幣的長期前景仍然持樂觀態度，並指出全球貨幣供應量預計將增加 20 兆美元，到 2025 年底，比特幣投資可能會增加 2 兆美元。

Diverging Market Opinions

市場意見分歧

Market sentiment remains divided. While Hayes predicts a bull run triggered by monetary expansion, not everyone is quite so optimistic.

市場情緒仍有分歧。儘管海耶斯預測貨幣擴張將引發牛市，但並非所有人都如此樂觀。

Some technical analysts identified the formation of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that could force the price down to $80,000.

一些技術分析師發現，比特幣週線圖上形成了看跌頭肩形態，可能會迫使價格跌至 8 萬美元。

Meanwhile, some proponents of Bitcoin’s long-term potential argue that it increasingly is being integrated into worldwide financial systems.

同時，一些比特幣長期潛力的支持者認為，比特幣正越來越多地融入全球金融體系。

U.S.-based Bitcoin mining firm MARA says a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve could trigger a global race for accumulation that would drive prices even higher.

總部位於美國的比特幣礦業公司 MARA 表示，美國的比特幣戰略儲備可能會引發全球比特幣累積競賽，推高價格。

Crypto Markets Brace for 2025 Fed Moves

加密貨幣市場為 2025 年聯準會措施做好準備

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have become a central driver of Bitcoin’s market behavior. As global financial markets increasingly intertwine with cryptocurrency, decisions by institutions like the Fed will likely continue to influence Bitcoin’s price movements.

聯準會的貨幣政策已成為比特幣市場行為的核心驅動力。隨著全球金融市場與加密貨幣的連結日益緊密，聯準會等機構的決定可能會繼續影響比特幣的價格走勢。

Despite current volatility, optimism persists within the crypto community. Analysts anticipate that Q1 2025 could be pivotal, with liquidity injections potentially catalyzing another Bitcoin bull run. However, sustaining such momentum will depend on regulatory clarity, institutional participation, and broader market conditions.

儘管當前存在波動，但加密社群中的樂觀情緒仍然存在。分析師預計 2025 年第一季可能至關重要，流動性注入可能會催化另一場比特幣牛市。然而，維持這種勢頭將取決於監管的明確性、機構的參與和更廣泛的市場條件。

While the immediate outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, the convergence of fiscal policies, institutional interest, and technological integration suggests a dynamic year ahead for the cryptocurrency market.

儘管比特幣的近期前景仍不確定，但財政政策、機構利益和技術整合的整合表明加密貨幣市場未來的一年將充滿活力。