比特币的[BTC]最近的市场活动强调了风险的增长

比特币的[BTC]最近的市场活动强调，随着价格行动接近关键水平，交易者的长期头寸的风险不断增长。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent market activity highlighted a growing risk for traders holding long positions as price action tightened near a critical level.

比特币的[BTC]最近的市场活动强调，随着价格行动接近关键水平，交易者的长期头寸的风险不断增长。

The $84,000 zone has become the focal point for institutional positioning and derivative buildup. If breached, it may trigger a rapid sell-off.

84,000美元的区域已成为机构定位和衍生品积累的焦点。如果违反，它可能会引发迅速抛售。

Warning signs on the horizon

警告标志在地平线上

Data from Alphractal show rising Open Interest and increasing inflows into exchanges, putting traders at higher risk of liquidation.

来自字母的数据表明，开放兴趣的增加，并增加了交流的流入，使交易者面临着更高的清算风险。

Source: Alphractal X

来源：字母x

As illustrated in the chart, we can see how Bitcoin’s price rose above $88,000 before stalling.

如图所示，我们可以看到比特币的价格在停滞之前上涨了88,000美元以上。

Many traders entered long positions during this move, expecting continuation. The Open Interest profile shows a buildup of leveraged positions near that price.

在此举中，许多交易者在这一举动中进入了漫长的职位，预计会继续。开放兴趣概况显示了该价格附近的杠杆位置的建立。

Buyers showed up—but then backed off

买家出现了 - 但随后退缩了

As prices slowed above $88K, Net Delta began falling. This hints at buyers losing control despite continued long exposure.

随着价格速度超过$ 88K，净三角洲开始下降。这暗示了买家尽管持续持续很长时间失去控制权。

If price reverses sharply, the $84,000 zone will become a battlefield. Traders who entered longs above $88K could face liquidation if prices fall below this level.

如果价格急剧倒转，那么$ 84,000的区域将成为战场。如果价格低于此水平，则进入超过8.8万美元的交易者可能会面临清算。

The $84K level holds the highest concentration of contracts, making it a prime liquidity zone.

8.4万美元的水平是合同的最高集中度，使其成为主要的流动性区域。

This zone functions as both a technical support and a potential liquidation trigger. If prices dip below it, market makers may accelerate the move by exploiting trapped longs.

该区域既是技术支持，又是潜在的清算触发器。如果价格低于其，做市商可能会通过利用被困的渴望来加速行动。

That breakdown could result in a wave of forced selling.

这种分解可能导致强迫销售浪潮。

These events happen when leveraged long positions hit stop losses or liquidation thresholds. Such activity often benefits traders holding short positions, especially if entered at higher levels.

当利用长位置击中停止损失或清算阈值时，这些事件就会发生。此类活动通常会使交易者保持短暂的职位，尤其是在更高级别的情况下输入。

Selling signals are creeping in

销售信号正在蔓延

Complementing the structural risk is data from CryptoQuant, which shows a rise in Bitcoin transferred to exchanges in March. These inflows historically signal intent to sell.

补充结构风险的是来自加密量的数据，该数据显示了3月转移到交易所的比特币增加。这些流入历史上表示出售意图。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Between January and March 2022, price moved from a high of $105,000 to $86,911. In that time, major inflow spikes occurred on days with increased volatility.

在2022年1月至3月之间，普莱斯从105,000美元的高点转移到86,911美元。在那个时候，大量流入的峰值发生，波动性增加。

For example, the 3rd of March saw 31,152 BTC transferred to exchanges when Bitcoin was priced at $84,311. This reinforces the significance of the $84K zone.

例如，当比特币的价格为84,311美元时，3月3日的31,152 BTC转移到了交易所。这增强了8.4K $ 84K的重要性。

By the 27th of March, inflows dropped to 10,053 BTC. While lower, this signals hesitation rather than renewed optimism. A failure to break higher could trigger fresh inflows.

到3月27日，流入降至10,053 BTC。虽然较低，但这表示犹豫而不是更新乐观。未能打破更高的可能会触发新的流入。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

Meanwhile, outflows declined from 86,230 BTC in February to 10,186 BTC by the 27th of March. This suggests reduced accumulation and growing caution.

同时，到3月27日到2月27日，流出从2月的86,230 BTC下降到了186 BTC。这表明积累减少和谨慎。

With long-term holders pulling back, bullish support may be weakening.

随着长期持有人退缩，看涨的支持可能会减弱。

Bitcoin HODLers hit the brakes

比特币霍德尔刹车

Charts from Glassnode show Bitcoin’s Realized Price increased steadily from $33,149 in November 2024 to $43,696 in March 2025.

GlassNode的图表显示，比特币的实现价格从2024年11月的33,149美元稳步上涨至2025年3月的43,696美元。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

However, the MVRV Z-Score fell from 3.42 to 1.99 during the same period. The divergence suggests reduced speculative excess, not full capitulation. Historically, scores above 5 mark tops; 2 implies mild overvaluation.

但是，在同一时期，MVRV z得分从3.42下降至1.99。差异表明投机性过量减少，而不是完全投降。从历史上看，得分高于5分的顶部； 2意味着轻度高估。

This is the line—who blinks first?

这是线条 - 谁首先眨眼？

Bitcoin trades near $86,000, holding above the $84,000 support. Exchange data shows cautious accumulation, while derivatives reflect heavy long exposure.

比特币的交易价格接近86,000美元，持有超过84,000美元的支持。交换数据显示出谨慎的积累，而衍生物反映了大量的长期暴露。

On-chain indicators point to weakening momentum. A break below $84,000 could trigger liquidations. Shorts above $88,000 may benefit.

链链指标表明动量减弱。低于$ 84,000的休息可能会触发清算。超过88,000美元的短裤可能会受益。

But a strong defense could maintain the bullish structure of higher lows. Markets now eye this zone for the next major move.

但是强有力的防御可以维持更高低点的看涨结构。现在，市场将向这个区域注视下一个重大举措。