比特幣的[BTC]最近的市場活動強調了風險的增長

比特幣的[BTC]最近的市場活動強調，隨著價格行動接近關鍵水平，交易者的長期頭寸的風險不斷增長。

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent market activity highlighted a growing risk for traders holding long positions as price action tightened near a critical level.

比特幣的[BTC]最近的市場活動強調，隨著價格行動接近關鍵水平，交易者的長期頭寸的風險不斷增長。

The $84,000 zone has become the focal point for institutional positioning and derivative buildup. If breached, it may trigger a rapid sell-off.

84,000美元的區域已成為機構定位和衍生品積累的焦點。如果違反，它可能會引發迅速拋售。

Warning signs on the horizon

警告標誌在地平線上

Data from Alphractal show rising Open Interest and increasing inflows into exchanges, putting traders at higher risk of liquidation.

來自字母的數據表明，開放興趣的增加，並增加了交流的流入，使交易者面臨著更高的清算風險。

Source: Alphractal X

來源：字母x

As illustrated in the chart, we can see how Bitcoin’s price rose above $88,000 before stalling.

如圖所示，我們可以看到比特幣的價格在停滯之前上漲了88,000美元以上。

Many traders entered long positions during this move, expecting continuation. The Open Interest profile shows a buildup of leveraged positions near that price.

在此舉中，許多交易者在這一舉動中進入了漫長的職位，預計會繼續。開放興趣概況顯示了該價格附近的槓杆位置的建立。

Buyers showed up—but then backed off

買家出現了 - 但隨後退縮了

As prices slowed above $88K, Net Delta began falling. This hints at buyers losing control despite continued long exposure.

隨著價格速度超過$ 88K，淨三角洲開始下降。這暗示了買家儘管持續持續很長時間失去控制權。

If price reverses sharply, the $84,000 zone will become a battlefield. Traders who entered longs above $88K could face liquidation if prices fall below this level.

如果價格急劇倒轉，那麼$ 84,000的區域將成為戰場。如果價格低於此水平，則進入超過8.8萬美元的交易者可能會面臨清算。

The $84K level holds the highest concentration of contracts, making it a prime liquidity zone.

8.4萬美元的水平是合同的最高集中度，使其成為主要的流動性區域。

This zone functions as both a technical support and a potential liquidation trigger. If prices dip below it, market makers may accelerate the move by exploiting trapped longs.

該區域既是技術支持，又是潛在的清算觸發器。如果價格低於其，做市商可能會通過利用被困的渴望來加速行動。

That breakdown could result in a wave of forced selling.

這種分解可能導致強迫銷售浪潮。

These events happen when leveraged long positions hit stop losses or liquidation thresholds. Such activity often benefits traders holding short positions, especially if entered at higher levels.

當利用長位置擊中停止損失或清算閾值時，這些事件就會發生。此類活動通常會使交易者保持短暫的職位，尤其是在更高級別的情況下輸入。

Selling signals are creeping in

銷售信號正在蔓延

Complementing the structural risk is data from CryptoQuant, which shows a rise in Bitcoin transferred to exchanges in March. These inflows historically signal intent to sell.

補充結構風險的是來自加密量的數據，該數據顯示了3月轉移到交易所的比特幣增加。這些流入歷史上表示出售意圖。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Between January and March 2022, price moved from a high of $105,000 to $86,911. In that time, major inflow spikes occurred on days with increased volatility.

在2022年1月至3月之間，普萊斯從105,000美元的高點轉移到86,911美元。在那個時候，大量流入的峰值發生，波動性增加。

For example, the 3rd of March saw 31,152 BTC transferred to exchanges when Bitcoin was priced at $84,311. This reinforces the significance of the $84K zone.

例如，當比特幣的價格為84,311美元時，3月3日的31,152 BTC轉移到了交易所。這增強了8.4K $ 84K的重要性。

By the 27th of March, inflows dropped to 10,053 BTC. While lower, this signals hesitation rather than renewed optimism. A failure to break higher could trigger fresh inflows.

到3月27日，流入降至10,053 BTC。雖然較低，但這表示猶豫而不是更新樂觀。未能打破更高的可能會觸發新的流入。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

Meanwhile, outflows declined from 86,230 BTC in February to 10,186 BTC by the 27th of March. This suggests reduced accumulation and growing caution.

同時，到3月27日到2月27日，流出從2月的86,230 BTC下降到了186 BTC。這表明積累減少和謹慎。

With long-term holders pulling back, bullish support may be weakening.

隨著長期持有人退縮，看漲的支持可能會減弱。

Bitcoin HODLers hit the brakes

比特幣霍德爾剎車

Charts from Glassnode show Bitcoin’s Realized Price increased steadily from $33,149 in November 2024 to $43,696 in March 2025.

GlassNode的圖表顯示，比特幣的實現價格從2024年11月的33,149美元穩步上漲至2025年3月的43,696美元。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

However, the MVRV Z-Score fell from 3.42 to 1.99 during the same period. The divergence suggests reduced speculative excess, not full capitulation. Historically, scores above 5 mark tops; 2 implies mild overvaluation.

但是，在同一時期，MVRV z得分從3.42下降至1.99。差異表明投機性過量減少，而不是完全投降。從歷史上看，得分高於5分的頂部； 2意味著輕度高估。

This is the line—who blinks first?

這是線條 - 誰首先眨眼？

Bitcoin trades near $86,000, holding above the $84,000 support. Exchange data shows cautious accumulation, while derivatives reflect heavy long exposure.

比特幣的交易價格接近86,000美元，持有超過84,000美元的支持。交換數據顯示出謹慎的積累，而衍生物反映了大量的長期暴露。

On-chain indicators point to weakening momentum. A break below $84,000 could trigger liquidations. Shorts above $88,000 may benefit.

鍊鍊指標表明動量減弱。低於$ 84,000的休息可能會觸發清算。超過88,000美元的短褲可能會受益。

But a strong defense could maintain the bullish structure of higher lows. Markets now eye this zone for the next major move.

但是強有力的防禦可以維持更高低點的看漲結構。現在，市場將向這個區域注視下一個重大舉措。