网络经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）说

彼得森分析了过去的模式，发现BTC在其运动中表现出季节性行为。他的模型表明，比特币在接下来的两个半月中具有很大的接触可能性。

Network economist Timothy Peterson has predicted that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high by June if history repeats itself.

网络经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）预测，如果历史重演，比特币可能会在6月达到新的历史最高水平。

The economist, who specializes in Bitcoin analysis, has identified a seasonal behavior in the cryptocurrency’s price movements. According to his model, there’s a strong possibility that BTC could touch new highs in the next two and a half months.

专门从事比特币分析的经济学家已经确定了加密货币价格变动中的季节性行为。根据他的模型，BTC很有可能在接下来的两个半月中触及新的高点。

At the moment, Bitcoin is at the low point of its all-time seasonal range, which bodes well for a strong comeback, according to Peterson. Nearly all of the year’s gains occur in the April and October months, which reinforces the possibility of a new all-time high in June.

彼得森说，目前，比特币正处于其历史季节性范围的低点，这对于卷土重来的重返次数很好。几乎所有一年的收益都发生在4月和10月的几个月中，这加强了6月有新历史最高高点的可能性。

“Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October,” Peterson stated. “It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.”

彼得森说：“几乎所有比特币的年度表现都发生在两个月内：四月和十月。” “完全有可能比特币在六月之前达到新的历史最高水平。”

Peterson’s analysis indicates that BTC is repeating its previous cycles, particularly the massive rallies of prior bull cycles. Bitcoin’s price has decreased by about 30% from its January mid-cycle peak, which he considers typical of bull market corrections.

彼得森的分析表明，BTC正在重复其先前的周期，尤其是先前的牛周期的大规模集会。比特币的价格从1月的中期峰值开始下降了约30％，他认为这是牛市校正的典型。

Despite this correction, Peterson remains bullish on Bitcoin’s upside potential. His model predicts a median value of $126,000 for Bitcoin by June 1.

尽管采取了这种修正，但彼得森仍然对比特币的上升潜力看涨。他的模型预测，到6月1日，比特币的中位价值为126,000美元。

Lower Price Forward Model Suggests $69K Is New Support Level

较低的价格远期模型表明$ 69K是新的支持水平

One of Peterson’s most significant Bitcoin price indicators, the Lowest Price Forward model, has accurately predicted support levels in the longer term. In 2020, the model had forecast that Bitcoin would no longer fall below $10,000 by September, and as predicted, the cryptocurrency remained above this level.

彼得森最重要的比特币价格指标之一，即最低的价格远期模型，从长远来看可以准确地预测支持水平。在2020年，该模型预测，到9月，比特币将不再低于10,000美元，正如预测的那样，加密货币仍然高于此水平。

This year, the model suggests a similar level at $69,000, with a 95% probability of becoming a new support level. The model attests to the fact that Bitcoin’s recent decline is only a temporary setback and not a failure in the market.

今年，该模型的水平相似，为69,000美元，有95％的可能性成为新的支持水平。该模型证明了比特币最近的下降只是暂时的挫折，而不是市场上的失败。

Peterson adds that the average period of its below-trend stay is around four months, and the present weakness may be ending. His model’s dotted red trendline places BTC at $126,000 on June 1st, aligning with its previous movement patterns.

彼得森补充说，其低于趋势的平均期限约为四个月，目前的弱点可能已经结束。他的模特点缀的红色趋势线在6月1日将BTC的$ 126,000置于126,000美元，与先前的运动模式保持一致。

A broader market cycle of Bitcoin also hints at an extremely bullish argument. Bitcoin may be on the verge of a huge breakthrough and could surpass the $150,000 level in the latter part of this year if it follows the trend of previous bull cycles.

比特币的更广泛的市场周期也暗示了一个极其看涨的论点。比特币可能处于巨大突破的边缘，如果遵循以前的公牛周期的趋势，今年后期可能会超过15万美元的水平。

Bitcoin's 2024-2025 cycle mirrors 2020's explosive rally. Some analysts like Trader Tardigrade predict the current movement in BTC looks almost identical to its 2020 cycle.

比特币的2024-2025循环循环反映了2020年的爆炸性集会。像Trader Tardigrade这样的一些分析师预测，BTC的当前运动看起来几乎与其2020年周期相同。

In 2020, Bitcoin consolidated and then broke out in the latter half of the year in a move that took it from around $10,000 to over $60,000 in a few months. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin might have another parabolic run higher above $150,000 and could potentially reach $160,000 by the end of 2025.

2020年，比特币合并，然后在下半年爆发，此举使它从大约10,000美元到几个月内的60,000美元以上。如果历史重演，比特币可能会有另一种抛物线质量高于150,000美元，并可能在2025年底之前达到160,000美元。

The analogy between the two cycles confirms the argument for an extended bull run. In January 2024, there was a rally similar to the rally in April 2020, opening the doors for an extended upswing. If it follows the trend, it could be on the cusp of a second major rally similar to its previous doubling effect after consolidation.

两个循环之间的类比证实了扩展的公牛奔跑的论点。 2024年1月，有一个与2020年4月的集会相似的集会，为延长上升的大门打开了大门。如果趋势趋于趋势，则可能是第二个主要集会的风口，与巩固后其先前的加倍效应相似。

As market sentiment repeats itself in the past, BTC’s near-term volatility might be only a stepping point toward all-time highs. With the present market structure in place, it could easily test its $100,000 resistance and push into uncharted territory in the near term.

随着过去的市场情绪在过去重演，BTC的近期波动率可能只是朝着历史最高高点的一个步骤。有了当前的市场结构，它可以轻松地测试其100,000美元的阻力，并在短期内推向未知领域。

If history repeats itself, the next few months might be historic for investors in Bitcoin.

如果历史重演，那么接下来的几个月对于比特币投资者来说可能是历史性的。