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比特币 [BTC] 投资者在 10 月份对 BTC 表现出了很大的乐观态度,以至于 Uptober 一直处于趋势之中。这可能与多种因素有关
Bitcoin [BTC] investors had a lot to be excited about in October, to the point that Uptober was trending. This could be due to several factors, including lower interest rates, historical performance in October and BTC’s latest bullish performance.
十月份,比特币 [BTC] 投资者有很多值得兴奋的事情,以至于 Uptober 成为趋势。这可能是由于多种因素造成的,包括较低的利率、10 月份的历史表现以及 BTC 最新的看涨表现。
However, despite the bullish expectations for Bitcoin in October, there were signs that things could pan out differently. For example, a recent CryptoQuant analysis suggested that BTC’s latest highs observed towards the end of September could mark its latest local high.
然而,尽管 10 月份人们对比特币抱有看涨预期,但有迹象表明情况可能会有所不同。例如,最近的 CryptoQuant 分析表明,BTC 在 9 月底观察到的最新高点可能标志着其最新的本地高点。
The analysis was based on BTC’s NVT golden cross and its recent push above 2.2. Another analysis suggested that Bitcoin will likely struggle to maintain bullish momentum in October based on historic performance.
该分析基于 BTC 的 NVT 金叉及其近期突破 2.2 的走势。另一项分析表明,根据历史表现,比特币可能很难在 10 月份保持看涨势头。
According to the analysis, Bitcoin rallied for two weeks after a major rate cut in 2019, followed by two months of bearish performance.
分析称,比特币在2019年大幅降息后连续两周上涨,随后经历了两个月的看跌表现。
These observations suggested that Bitcoin may still be subject to sell pressure despite the prevailing hype. This was already evident in BTC’s latest performance.
这些观察结果表明,尽管炒作盛行,但比特币可能仍面临抛售压力。这在比特币的最新表现中已经很明显了。
The cryptocurrency had already given up some of its September gains, indicating that some investors were taking profits.
该加密货币已经回吐了 9 月份的部分涨幅,表明一些投资者正在获利了结。
Bitcoin sell pressure mounts
比特币抛售压力加大
Bitcoin recently threatened to dip below the $60,000 price point on 1 October. It was trading at $61,430 at press time. It has so far tanked by 7.8% from its highest price in September.
比特币最近有可能在 10 月 1 日跌破 60,000 美元的价格点。截至发稿时,其交易价格为 61,430 美元。迄今为止,该价格已较 9 月份的最高价下跌 7.8%。
This meant it was on course to fall to the $59,580 and $57,940 price range as per the Fibbonacci retracement.
这意味着根据斐波那契回撤,价格将跌至 59,580 美元和 57,940 美元的价格范围。
Source: TradingView
来源:TradingView
The pullback was indication enough that the hype post-rate cut announcement had run its course. However, this raised more questions than it answered. Would demand resume if price retests the Fibonnacci level?
这次回调足以表明降息公告后的炒作已经结束。然而,这提出的问题多于它回答的问题。如果价格重新测试斐波那契水平,需求会恢复吗?
On-chain data presented information that was consistent with the bearish outcome. For example, Bitcoin exchange reserves had maintained an overall downtrend for the last few months with slight upticks here and there.
链上数据提供的信息与看跌结果一致。例如,比特币交易储备在过去几个月中总体保持下降趋势,但有时略有上升。
The Bitcoin exchange reserves concluded September with a bit of an uptick. This confirmed that some coins had been moving from private wallets to exchanges. In most cases, this was consistent with a resurgence of sell pressure in the last few days.
9 月份,比特币交易储备略有上升。这证实了一些代币已从私人钱包转移到交易所。在大多数情况下,这与过去几天抛售压力的重新抬头是一致的。
Source: CryptoQuant
来源:CryptoQuant
The exchange reserve uptick was also consistent with a dip in Bitcoin open interest since 26th September. This confirmed that the demand for Bitcoin in the derivatives segment also slowed down.
外汇储备的上升也与 9 月 26 日以来比特币未平仓合约的下降相一致。这证实了衍生品领域对比特币的需求也放缓了。
Source: CryptoQuant
来源:CryptoQuant
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测
The findings suggested a strong possibility that BTC may face more sell pressure in the short run, as was currently the case, but this did not provide a clear timeline.
研究结果表明,比特币很可能在短期内面临更大的抛售压力,就像目前的情况一样,但这并没有提供明确的时间表。
It could be a short-lived pullback or turn out to be a longer one, depending on how things will play out.
这可能是短暂的回调,也可能是更长的回调,具体取决于事态的发展。
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