到2025年底，比特币（BTC）会达到25万美元吗？这是亿万富翁VC Tim Draper认为的

在更广泛的加密市场更正中，您可能会惊讶地发现，许多备受瞩目的投资者继续对比特币（BTC -1.90％）的乐观价格预测降低了一倍（甚至三倍）。

Amid the broader crypto market correction, you might be surprised to find out that a number of high-profile investors continue to double (and even triple) down on their optimistic price predictions for Bitcoin (BTC -1.90%).

在更广泛的加密市场更正中，您可能会惊讶地发现，许多备受瞩目的投资者继续对比特币（BTC -1.90％）的乐观价格预测降低了一倍（甚至三倍）。

Billionaire Silicon Valley venture capitalist (VC) Tim Draper, for example, still thinks Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. But just how likely is that? After all, Bitcoin is now down more than 20% from an all-time high of about $109,000 in January, and it has struggled to regain the $100,000 price point since then.

例如，亿万富翁硅谷风险投资家（VC）蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）仍然认为比特币在2025年底可能达到25万美元。但是那有多大的可能性？毕竟，比特币现在比一月份的历史最高额度约为109,000美元，从那以后，比特币的历史最高额度约为109,000美元，此后一直在努力恢复100,000美元的价格。

Tim Draper's Bitcoin price predictions

蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）的比特币价格预测

The first thing you should know is that Draper has been making Bitcoin price predictions for the past decade. In 2014, for example, he famously predicted that Bitcoin would hit a $10,000 price tag within three years — which it did. Bitcoin crossed $10,000 in November 2017.

您应该知道的第一件事是，在过去的十年中，Draper一直在做出比特币价格预测。例如，在2014年，他著名地预测，比特币将在三年内达到10,000美元的价格 - 确实如此。比特币在2017年11月越过10,000美元。

In 2018, he predicted that Bitcoin would hit a price of $250,000 by the end of 2022. That didn't happen. Bitcoin reached a then-all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021 before the crypto market cratered in 2022, sending Bitcoin back down to about $16,000.

在2018年，他预测，到2022年底，比特币将达到25万美元的价格。比特币在2021年11月达到了当时的69,000美元，然后加密货币市场在2022年浮现，将比特币降至约16,000美元。

In November 2022, at the very nadir of investor sentiment about Bitcoin, Draper predicted that Bitcoin would soon hit the seemingly unattainable $250,000 price point. Granted, Bitcoin recovered significantly in price, but came nowhere close to hitting $250,000. Even after huge triple-digit percentage rallies in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin is still massively less than $100,000.

2022年11月，在投资者对比特币的情绪上，德雷珀（Draper）预测，比特币将很快达到看似无法实现的250,000美元价格。当然，比特币的价格大大恢复了，但距离达到25万美元。即使在2023年和2024年的三位数集会上，比特币仍大大低于100,000美元。

So is the third time the charm? Is this finally the year that Bitcoin crosses over the much-anticipated $250,000 price?

那是第三次魅力吗？这是比特币超过备受期待的25万美元价格的一年吗？

Key assumptions for a $250,000 Bitcoin price

$ 250,000比特币价格的主要假设

To answer that question, it's helpful to understand why Draper has been so bullish on Bitcoin for so long. A lot of that has to do with his perspective as a Silicon Valley VC.

为了回答这个问题，了解为什么德雷珀这么长时间对比特币如此看好，这很有帮助。其中很多都与他作为硅谷VC的看法有关。

A decade ago, Draper viewed Bitcoin primarily in technological terms. It was, quite simply, a superior form of money. It was digital, it was algorithmic, it was protected by strong cryptography, and it benefited from obvious network effects. Early adopters viewed Bitcoin as the perfect currency, unable to be debased by any government or central bank.

十年前，德雷珀（Draper）主要用技术术语查看了比特币。简而言之，这是一种优越的金钱形式。它是数字化的，它是算法，它受到强密码学的保护，并且受益于明显的网络效应。早期采用者将比特币视为完美的货币，无法由任何政府或中央银行贬低。

For much of its early history, Bitcoin was primarily viewed as a medium of exchange. In fact, the original Bitcoin whitepaper called it a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system," and that's exactly what it was supposed to be. As a result, Draper envisioned an economic future in which people used Bitcoin to pay for everyday transactions.

对于早期历史的大部分历史，比特币主要被视为一种交换媒介。实际上，原始的比特币白皮书称其为“点对点电子现金系统”，这正是应该的。结果，德雷珀设想了一个经济未来，人们使用比特币支付日常交易。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

In 2025, Draper seems to have updated his view of Bitcoin in one important way. He now appears to view Bitcoin as a store of value, in addition to being a medium of exchange. It's something that you can invest in, and trust that it will preserve its value over time. And that makes it much more valuable than any fiat currency (such as the U.S. dollar), which can lose its value over time due to factors such as inflation.

在2025年，Draper似乎以一种重要的方式更新了他对比特币的看法。现在，他似乎将比特币视为价值存储，除了是一种交换媒介。这是您可以投资的东西，并相信它将随着时间的推移保留其价值。这使其比任何法定货币（例如美元）更有价值，这会随着通货膨胀等因素而随着时间的流逝而失去价值。

In fact, Draper recently suggested that Bitcoin will soon become the "dominant currency of the world," eliminating the need for a centralized fiat currency like the U.S. dollar. At a time when the U.S. government is carrying a $36 trillion debt load, this type of argument is starting to gain traction in the financial world.

实际上，德雷珀（Draper）最近建议比特币很快成为“世界上的主要货币”，从而消除了像美元这样的集中式菲亚特货币的需求。在美国政府承担36万亿美元的债务负担的时候，这种类型的论点开始在金融界吸引。

As more people move out of dollars and into Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin is going to go higher, right? Imagine a tsunami of new demand, as people finally give up on the U.S. dollar (and dollar-denominated assets), pushing Bitcoin to unbelievably higher price levels in years to come.

随着越来越多的人从美元中脱颖而出并进入比特币，比特币的价格会更高，对吗？想象一下新需求的海啸，因为人们终于放弃了美元（和美元计价的资产），这使比特币在未来几年中达到了令人难以置信的更高的价格水平。

Bitcoin as a portfolio asset

比特币作为投资组合资产

That might sound unlikely, but Draper still thinks people will eventually use Bitcoin for buying food and clothing, and even for paying the rent or mortgage. But how many people are actually doing that today? It has now been 15 years, and Bitcoin is still not a generally accepted medium of exchange.

这听起来不太可能，但德雷珀仍然认为人们最终会使用比特币来购买食物和衣物，甚至用于支付租金或抵押贷款。但是今天实际上有多少人在这样做？现在已经15年了，比特币仍然不是公认的交换媒介。

A lot of that has to do with the way people think about Bitcoin. According to the latest Motley Fool research, young investors — such as members of Gen Z and millennials — aren't viewing Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Instead, they are primarily viewing Bitcoin as a long-term portfolio asset that is capable of generating real wealth over the

其中很多与人们考虑比特币的方式有关。根据最新的Motley Fool研究，年轻的投资者（例如Z世代和千禧一代的成员）并不是将比特币视为一种交流媒介。相反，他们主要将比特币视为能够在