到2025年底，比特幣（BTC）會達到25萬美元嗎？這是億萬富翁VC Tim Draper認為的

在更廣泛的加密市場更正中，您可能會驚訝地發現，許多備受矚目的投資者繼續對比特幣（BTC -1.90％）的樂觀價格預測降低了一倍（甚至三倍）。

Amid the broader crypto market correction, you might be surprised to find out that a number of high-profile investors continue to double (and even triple) down on their optimistic price predictions for Bitcoin (BTC -1.90%).

在更廣泛的加密市場更正中，您可能會驚訝地發現，許多備受矚目的投資者繼續對比特幣（BTC -1.90％）的樂觀價格預測降低了一倍（甚至三倍）。

Billionaire Silicon Valley venture capitalist (VC) Tim Draper, for example, still thinks Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. But just how likely is that? After all, Bitcoin is now down more than 20% from an all-time high of about $109,000 in January, and it has struggled to regain the $100,000 price point since then.

例如，億萬富翁矽谷風險投資家（VC）蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）仍然認為比特幣在2025年底可能達到25萬美元。但是那有多大的可能性？畢竟，比特幣現在比一月份的歷史最高額度約為109,000美元，從那以後，比特幣的歷史最高額度約為109,000美元，此後一直在努力恢復100,000美元的價格。

Tim Draper's Bitcoin price predictions

蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）的比特幣價格預測

The first thing you should know is that Draper has been making Bitcoin price predictions for the past decade. In 2014, for example, he famously predicted that Bitcoin would hit a $10,000 price tag within three years — which it did. Bitcoin crossed $10,000 in November 2017.

您應該知道的第一件事是，在過去的十年中，Draper一直在做出比特幣價格預測。例如，在2014年，他著名地預測，比特幣將在三年內達到10,000美元的價格 - 確實如此。比特幣在2017年11月越過10,000美元。

In 2018, he predicted that Bitcoin would hit a price of $250,000 by the end of 2022. That didn't happen. Bitcoin reached a then-all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021 before the crypto market cratered in 2022, sending Bitcoin back down to about $16,000.

在2018年，他預測，到2022年底，比特幣將達到25萬美元的價格。比特幣在2021年11月達到了當時的69,000美元，然後加密貨幣市場在2022年浮現，將比特幣降至約16,000美元。

In November 2022, at the very nadir of investor sentiment about Bitcoin, Draper predicted that Bitcoin would soon hit the seemingly unattainable $250,000 price point. Granted, Bitcoin recovered significantly in price, but came nowhere close to hitting $250,000. Even after huge triple-digit percentage rallies in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin is still massively less than $100,000.

2022年11月，在投資者對比特幣的情緒上，德雷珀（Draper）預測，比特幣將很快達到看似無法實現的250,000美元價格。當然，比特幣的價格大大恢復了，但距離達到25萬美元。即使在2023年和2024年的三位數集會上，比特幣仍大大低於100,000美元。

So is the third time the charm? Is this finally the year that Bitcoin crosses over the much-anticipated $250,000 price?

那是第三次魅力嗎？這是比特幣超過備受期待的25萬美元價格的一年嗎？

Key assumptions for a $250,000 Bitcoin price

$ 250,000比特幣價格的主要假設

To answer that question, it's helpful to understand why Draper has been so bullish on Bitcoin for so long. A lot of that has to do with his perspective as a Silicon Valley VC.

為了回答這個問題，了解為什麼德雷珀這麼長時間對比特幣如此看好，這很有幫助。其中很多都與他作為矽谷VC的看法有關。

A decade ago, Draper viewed Bitcoin primarily in technological terms. It was, quite simply, a superior form of money. It was digital, it was algorithmic, it was protected by strong cryptography, and it benefited from obvious network effects. Early adopters viewed Bitcoin as the perfect currency, unable to be debased by any government or central bank.

十年前，德雷珀（Draper）主要用技術術語查看了比特幣。簡而言之，這是一種優越的金錢形式。它是數字化的，它是算法，它受到強密碼學的保護，並且受益於明顯的網絡效應。早期採用者將比特幣視為完美的貨幣，無法由任何政府或中央銀行貶低。

For much of its early history, Bitcoin was primarily viewed as a medium of exchange. In fact, the original Bitcoin whitepaper called it a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system," and that's exactly what it was supposed to be. As a result, Draper envisioned an economic future in which people used Bitcoin to pay for everyday transactions.

對於早期歷史的大部分歷史，比特幣主要被視為一種交換媒介。實際上，原始的比特幣白皮書稱其為“點對點電子現金系統”，這正是應該的。結果，德雷珀設想了一個經濟未來，人們使用比特幣支付日常交易。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

In 2025, Draper seems to have updated his view of Bitcoin in one important way. He now appears to view Bitcoin as a store of value, in addition to being a medium of exchange. It's something that you can invest in, and trust that it will preserve its value over time. And that makes it much more valuable than any fiat currency (such as the U.S. dollar), which can lose its value over time due to factors such as inflation.

在2025年，Draper似乎以一種重要的方式更新了他對比特幣的看法。現在，他似乎將比特幣視為價值存儲，除了是一種交換媒介。這是您可以投資的東西，並相信它將隨著時間的推移保留其價值。這使其比任何法定貨幣（例如美元）更有價值，這會隨著通貨膨脹等因素而隨著時間的流逝而失去價值。

In fact, Draper recently suggested that Bitcoin will soon become the "dominant currency of the world," eliminating the need for a centralized fiat currency like the U.S. dollar. At a time when the U.S. government is carrying a $36 trillion debt load, this type of argument is starting to gain traction in the financial world.

實際上，德雷珀（Draper）最近建議比特幣很快成為“世界上的主要貨幣”，從而消除了像美元這樣的集中式菲亞特貨幣的需求。在美國政府承擔36萬億美元的債務負擔的時候，這種類型的論點開始在金融界吸引。

As more people move out of dollars and into Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin is going to go higher, right? Imagine a tsunami of new demand, as people finally give up on the U.S. dollar (and dollar-denominated assets), pushing Bitcoin to unbelievably higher price levels in years to come.

隨著越來越多的人從美元中脫穎而出並進入比特幣，比特幣的價格會更高，對嗎？想像一下新需求的海嘯，因為人們終於放棄了美元（和美元計價的資產），這使比特幣在未來幾年中達到了令人難以置信的更高的價格水平。

Bitcoin as a portfolio asset

比特幣作為投資組合資產

That might sound unlikely, but Draper still thinks people will eventually use Bitcoin for buying food and clothing, and even for paying the rent or mortgage. But how many people are actually doing that today? It has now been 15 years, and Bitcoin is still not a generally accepted medium of exchange.

這聽起來不太可能，但德雷珀仍然認為人們最終會使用比特幣來購買食物和衣物，甚至用於支付租金或抵押貸款。但是今天實際上有多少人在這樣做？現在已經15年了，比特幣仍然不是公認的交換媒介。

A lot of that has to do with the way people think about Bitcoin. According to the latest Motley Fool research, young investors — such as members of Gen Z and millennials — aren't viewing Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Instead, they are primarily viewing Bitcoin as a long-term portfolio asset that is capable of generating real wealth over the

其中很多與人們考慮比特幣的方式有關。根據最新的Motley Fool研究，年輕的投資者（例如Z世代和千禧一代的成員）並不是將比特幣視為一種交流媒介。相反，他們主要將比特幣視為能夠在