比特币（BTC）以谨慎的心情进入FOMC周，多个月的低点仍然不舒服。

美联储是关注的中心，其决定应在利率上做出决定，而贸易商急切地扫描主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）则为肮脏的信号。

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into FOMC week in a cautious mood, with multi-month lows still uncomfortably close.

比特币（BTC）以谨慎的心情进入FOMC周，多个月的低点仍然不舒服。

BTC price action preserves $80,000 support as upside liquidity looks ripe for the taking.

BTC价格行动保留了80,000美元的支持，因为上升流动性看起来已经成熟。

The Fed is the center of attention with a decision due on interest rates and traders eagerly scanning Chair Jerome Powell for dovish signals.

美联储是关注的中心，其决定应在利率上做出决定，而贸易商急切地扫描主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）则为肮脏的信号。

A return to accumulation among Bitcoin top buyers forms grounds for confidence over market stability going forward.

比特币顶级买家之间积累的恢复构成了对市场稳定的信心。

Historical BTC price cycle analysis delivers an impressive $126,000 target for the start of June.

历史BTC价格周期分析在6月初提供了令人印象深刻的$ 126,000目标。

Those looking to “be greedy when others are fearful” should concentrate on $69,000, research concludes.

研究总结说，那些希望“在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”的人应该集中精力69,000美元。

Bitcoin trader sees $87,000 liquidity grab

比特币交易员看到$ 87,000的流动性获取

A comparatively quiet weekend saw BTC/USD avoid a lasting sell-off into the weekly close, instead only dipping to $82,000 before rebounding.

一个相对安静的周末看到了BTC/USD避免持续到每周的封闭，而是在篮板前只降至82,000美元。

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows a broad reclaim of the $80,000 mark cementing itself in recent days.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView的数据显示，最近几天的80,000美元固定在汇总。

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/1小时图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Not a bad Sunday for Bitcoin,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized in part of his latest market analysis on X.

“比特币对比特币来说不是一个糟糕的星期天，”加密交易员，分析师兼企业家MichaëlVande Poppe总结了他对X的最新市场分析的一部分。

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

BTC/USDT 4小时图表。资料来源：MichaëlVande poppe/x

Other market participants echoed the sentiment, including those seeing another retest of multi-month lows to take liquidity and “trap” late shorts.

其他市场参与者回应了这种情绪，包括那些看到另一个多个月低点的重新测试以吸引流动性和“陷阱”晚短裤。

“I think Bitcoin will hit 78k first to grab liquidity before an Upside Breakout,” popular trader Captain Faibik argued in part of his own X content.

“我认为比特币将首先达到7.8k，以在上升突破之前获得流动性，”受欢迎的交易员Faibik上尉在他自己的X内容的一部分中辩称。

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Captain Faibik/X

BTC/USDT 1天图表。资料来源：Faibik上尉/X

Fellow trader CrypNuevo meanwhile noted that liquidity was skewed mostly to the upside, resulting in key targets for bulls to take.

同时，交易员克里普诺沃（Crypnuevo）指出，流动性主要偏向上空，从而为公牛带来了关键的目标。

“The area between $85.4k & $87.1k is the main liquidity zone,” an X thread explained.

X线程解释说：“ $ 85.4K和$ 87.1K之间的区域是主要的流动性区域。”

Bitcoin exchange order book liquidity data. Source: CrypNuevo/X

比特币交换订单流动性数据。资料来源：Crypnuevo/X

Fed’s Powell in the spotlight as FOMC week arrives

FOMC周到来时，美联储的鲍威尔在聚光灯下

Bitcoin and risk-asset traders have one macroeconomic event only on their minds this week: the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

比特币和风险资产交易者只有本周的脑海才有一个宏观经济事件：美国美联储的利率决策。

Coming at what commentary calls a “pivotal point in time,” the move by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have wide-ranging implications for market sentiment.

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的举动以评论所谓的“关键点”为“关键点”将对市场情绪产生广泛的影响。

On the surface, it appears that few surprises will likely come as a result of the second meeting of 2025 — inflation may be cooling, but Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, maintain a hawkish stance on the economy and financial policy.

从表面上看，由于2025年的第二次会议，似乎很少会出现惊喜 - 通货膨胀可能正在冷却，但是包括主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在内的美联储官员对经济和金融政策保持了鹰派的立场。

Powell has repeatedly stated that he is in no rush to cut rates, leading to almost unanimous market bets that current levels will remain unchanged after FOMC.

鲍威尔（Powell）一再表示，他不急于降低利率，导致几乎一致的市场下注，即FOMC之后，目前的水平将保持不变。

🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 99% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes on Mar. 20. pic.twitter.com/zaDGBsmAZM

🇺🇸FOMC：Polymarket用户预测，美联储不会在3月20日降低任何速度变化的机会99％。

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool see a high probability of cuts coming only in June.

CME Group的FedWatch工具的最新估算值得削减的可能性很高。

Should Powell strike a more relaxed tone during his accompanying statement and press conference, the mood could easily flip.

如果鲍威尔在伴随的声明和新闻发布会期间发出更轻松的语气，情绪很容易翻转。

“If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will move fast,” crypto technical analyst Kyle Doops argued in part of an X post on the topic.

加密技术分析师凯尔·杜普斯（Kyle Doops）在下一个关于该主题的X帖子中争论的是：“如果鲍威尔在下一个FOMC上甚至在下一个FOMC上窃窃私语'QE'，市场将会迅速发展。”

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

喂养目标利率概率。资料来源：CME组

Doops referred to quantitative easing, a byword for liquidity injections and something that historically benefits crypto performance.

DOOPS提到了定量宽松，这是一种用于流动性注射的代名词以及历史上有益于加密性能的东西。

Behind the scenes, US M2 money supply is already increasing — a key ingredient for a crypto market rebound.

在幕后，美国M2货币供应已经在增加，这是加密市场反弹的关键要素。

“M2 money supply rose +3.9% year-over-year in January, the fastest pace in 30 months. This is the 11th straight month of money supply expansion,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted at the weekend.

“ 1月份的M2货币供应量增长了3.9％，这是30个月以来最快的速度。这是连续第11个月的货币供应扩张。”

Kobeissi added that worldwide liquidity is following a similar pattern.

Kobeissi补充说，全球流动性也遵循类似的模式。

“Meanwhile, global money supply has risen by ~$2.0 trillion over the last 2 months, to its highest since September 2024.”

“与此同时，在过去两个月中，全球货币供应量增长了约2.0万亿美元，至2024年9月以来最高。”

US M2 money supply chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

美国M2货币供应图。资料来源：Kobeissi Letter/X

Recent buyers show new ‘hodling behavior’

最近的买家展示了新的“霍德林行为”

Newer Bitcoin investors are showing signs of maturing behavior as the bull market drawdown persists.

随着牛市的逐渐减少，较新的比特币投资者表现出了成熟行为的迹象。

The latest findings from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal accumulation taking over for the older half of the short-term holder (STH) cohort.

OnChain Analytics平台加密的最新发现揭示了接管了短期持有人（STH）队列的年龄较大的一半。

STH entities are those who bought BTC up to six months ago. Per CryptoQuant, investors hodling between three and six months are now entering “accumulation” by refusing to succumb to panic selling, despite potentially being underwater on their stack.

STH实体是六个月前购买BTC的人。每次加密货币，尽管有可能在水中堆放在堆栈中，但现在拒绝屈服于恐慌销售的投资者现在正在进入“积累”。

“According to the latest data, the percentage of coins held for

“根据最新数据，持有的硬币百分比