Bitcoin (BTC) heads into FOMC week in a cautious mood, with multimonth lows still uncomfortably close.

The Fed is the center of attention with a decision due on interest rates and traders eagerly scanning Chair Jerome Powell for dovish signals.

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into FOMC week in a cautious mood, with multi-month lows still uncomfortably close.

BTC price action preserves $80,000 support as upside liquidity looks ripe for the taking.

The Fed is the center of attention with a decision due on interest rates and traders eagerly scanning Chair Jerome Powell for dovish signals.

A return to accumulation among Bitcoin top buyers forms grounds for confidence over market stability going forward.

Historical BTC price cycle analysis delivers an impressive $126,000 target for the start of June.

Those looking to “be greedy when others are fearful” should concentrate on $69,000, research concludes.

Bitcoin trader sees $87,000 liquidity grab

A comparatively quiet weekend saw BTC/USD avoid a lasting sell-off into the weekly close, instead only dipping to $82,000 before rebounding.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows a broad reclaim of the $80,000 mark cementing itself in recent days.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Not a bad Sunday for Bitcoin,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized in part of his latest market analysis on X.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Other market participants echoed the sentiment, including those seeing another retest of multi-month lows to take liquidity and “trap” late shorts.

“I think Bitcoin will hit 78k first to grab liquidity before an Upside Breakout,” popular trader Captain Faibik argued in part of his own X content.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Captain Faibik/X

Fellow trader CrypNuevo meanwhile noted that liquidity was skewed mostly to the upside, resulting in key targets for bulls to take.

“The area between $85.4k & $87.1k is the main liquidity zone,” an X thread explained.

Bitcoin exchange order book liquidity data. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fed’s Powell in the spotlight as FOMC week arrives

Bitcoin and risk-asset traders have one macroeconomic event only on their minds this week: the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Coming at what commentary calls a “pivotal point in time,” the move by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have wide-ranging implications for market sentiment.

On the surface, it appears that few surprises will likely come as a result of the second meeting of 2025 — inflation may be cooling, but Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, maintain a hawkish stance on the economy and financial policy.

Powell has repeatedly stated that he is in no rush to cut rates, leading to almost unanimous market bets that current levels will remain unchanged after FOMC.

🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 99% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes on Mar. 20. pic.twitter.com/zaDGBsmAZM

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool see a high probability of cuts coming only in June.

Should Powell strike a more relaxed tone during his accompanying statement and press conference, the mood could easily flip.

“If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will move fast,” crypto technical analyst Kyle Doops argued in part of an X post on the topic.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Doops referred to quantitative easing, a byword for liquidity injections and something that historically benefits crypto performance.

Behind the scenes, US M2 money supply is already increasing — a key ingredient for a crypto market rebound.

“M2 money supply rose +3.9% year-over-year in January, the fastest pace in 30 months. This is the 11th straight month of money supply expansion,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted at the weekend.

Kobeissi added that worldwide liquidity is following a similar pattern.

“Meanwhile, global money supply has risen by ~$2.0 trillion over the last 2 months, to its highest since September 2024.”

US M2 money supply chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Recent buyers show new ‘hodling behavior’

Newer Bitcoin investors are showing signs of maturing behavior as the bull market drawdown persists.

The latest findings from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal accumulation taking over for the older half of the short-term holder (STH) cohort.

STH entities are those who bought BTC up to six months ago. Per CryptoQuant, investors hodling between three and six months are now entering “accumulation” by refusing to succumb to panic selling, despite potentially being underwater on their stack.

“According to the latest data, the percentage of coins held for