分析师警告称，比特币（BTC）即将大幅下滑

尽管比特币 (BTC) 正在巩固其在 60,000 美元支撑区域之上的地位，但一位加密货币分析师警告称，这种首个数字资产正在走向成熟

A cryptocurrency analyst has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for a major downturn, presenting a pessimistic outlook for the world’s leading digital asset.

一位加密货币分析师警告称，比特币（BTC）正面临严重衰退，这对全球领先的数字资产提出了悲观的前景。

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is likely to crash and form a significant low in the coming months. This period will be characterized by high volatility if the asset continues to trade below the $70,000 level, as highlighted by Alan Santana in a TradingView post on September 25.

这位分析师表示，比特币可能会在未来几个月崩溃并形成显着低点。正如 Alan Santana 在 9 月 25 日的 TradingView 帖子中所强调的那样，如果资产继续低于 70,000 美元的水平，这一时期的特点将是高波动性。

Santana's analysis focuses on the technical challenges that Bitcoin has faced since reaching an all-time high of $74,000 in March 2024. He points to a powerful bearish signal that emerged in early March, with the highest daily bearish volume seen in years on March 5, foreshadowing the market's downward trajectory.

Santana 的分析重点是比特币自 2024 年 3 月达到 74,000 美元的历史高点以来所面临的技术挑战。他指出，3 月初出现了一个强大的看跌信号，3 月 5 日出现了多年来最高的日看跌交易量，预示着市场的下行趋势。

This downward trend has remained intact, with Bitcoin forming a series of lower highs until it ultimately crashed in early August. Santana emphasizes that this bearish structure remains, leaving little room for optimism unless key levels are breached.

这种下降趋势一直保持不变，比特币形成了一系列较低的高点，直到八月初最终崩盘。桑塔纳强调，这种看跌结构仍然存在，除非突破关键水平，否则乐观的空间很小。

The descending triangle formation on Bitcoin's chart is a crucial pattern that contributes to Santana's bearish stance. This formation, which often indicates further downside, has raised concerns of a breakout to lower levels. According to Santana, the potential severity of the decline shows Bitcoin possibly falling as low as the $30,000 range.

比特币图表上的下降三角形是桑塔纳看跌立场的一个关键模式。这种形态通常预示着进一步的下跌，引发了人们对突破至更低水平的担忧。 Santana 表示，潜在的严重下跌表明比特币可能跌至 30,000 美元的区间。

However, Santana suggests two scenarios that could shift Bitcoin into bullish territory. The first would be a breakout above $71,000, which would invalidate much of the current downward momentum. The second scenario would involve Bitcoin producing a new low with reduced selling volume and oversold indicators, signaling that a bottom may be near. In either case, Santana stresses that Bitcoin will need to show clearer signs of reversal before any optimism can take hold.

然而，桑塔纳提出了两种可能将比特币推向看涨区域的情景。第一个突破将是突破 71,000 美元，这将使当前的大部分下行势头失效。第二种情况将涉及比特币创下新低，同时抛售量和超卖指标减少，这表明底部可能即将来临。无论哪种情况，桑塔纳都强调，比特币需要显示出更清晰的逆转迹象，然后乐观情绪才能站稳脚跟。

The expert adds that Bitcoin is likely to produce one major low before beginning any meaningful recovery, with crash timelines set for September or November 2024, depending on market conditions.

这位专家补充说，比特币在开始任何有意义的复苏之前可能会出现一个重大低点，崩盘时间表设定为 2024 年 9 月或 11 月，具体取决于市场状况。

“We continue 100% bearish on Bitcoin as long as it trades below $70,000/$71,000 on the weekly/monthly close... Bitcoin is set to crash and produce one major low. It can happen now, September 2024, or later in November 2024,” wrote Santana.

“只要比特币每周/每月收盘价低于 70,000 美元/71,000 美元，我们就继续 100% 看跌比特币……比特币注定会崩溃并出现一个重大低点。它可能会在现在、2024 年 9 月或 2024 年 11 月晚些时候发生，”桑塔纳写道。

Meanwhile, while Santana foresees a possible downturn for Bitcoin, the expert believes an opportunity might be opening in the altcoin market. As reported by Finbold, Santana noted that small-cap altcoins have turned bullish since they have already hit their bottom, unlike Bitcoin.

与此同时，虽然桑塔纳预计比特币可能会出现低迷，但专家认为山寨币市场可能正在出现机会。据 Finbold 报道，桑塔纳指出，与比特币不同，小盘山寨币由于已经触底而变得看涨。

In an X post on September 25, crypto trading expert Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture with the asset facing potential price movement in both directions.

加密货币交易专家 Ali Martinez 在 9 月 25 日的 X 帖子中指出，比特币目前正处于关键时刻，该资产面临着潜在的双向价格波动。

According to Martinez, data indicates Bitcoin's most critical support zone is at $63,300 as it marks the level where the largest accumulation of realized transactions occurred. At this level, over 500,000 BTC were transacted. Therefore, if Bitcoin maintains this key support, the asset could target $65,500.

马丁内斯表示，数据表明比特币最关键的支撑区域是 63,300 美元，因为它标志着已实现交易的最大积累发生的水平。在此水平上，比特币的交易量超过 500,000 个。因此，如果比特币维持这一关键支撑，该资产的目标可能是 65,500 美元。

However, a failure to hold $63,300 may result in a downward move toward $60,365, where approximately 314,000 BTC were transacted, marking the next potential support level.

然而，未能守住 63,300 美元可能会导致价格下跌至 60,365 美元，其中约 314,000 BTC 被交易，标志着下一个潜在支撑位。

Bitcoin was trading at $63,650 at press time, reflecting gains of about 0.7% in the last 24 hours. Over the past seven days, BTC is up almost 7%.

截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 63,650 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨约 0.7%。在过去的 7 天里，BTC 上涨了近 7%。

Overall, Bitcoin is showing a strong bullish trend as it sits above both the 50-day SMA ($59,657) and the 200-day SMA ($61,683). This indicates positive momentum in both the short and long term. Therefore, as long as the crypto sustains the price above these values, there is room for further growth.

总体而言，比特币显示出强劲的看涨趋势，因为它位于 50 日移动平均线（59,657 美元）和 200 日移动平均线（61,683 美元）上方。这表明短期和长期的积极势头。因此，只要加密货币将价格维持在这些价值之上，就有进一步增长的空间。