分析師警告稱，比特幣（BTC）即將大幅下滑

儘管比特幣 (BTC) 正在鞏固其在 60,000 美元支撐區域之上的地位，但一位加密貨幣分析師警告稱，這種首個數位資產正在成熟

A cryptocurrency analyst has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for a major downturn, presenting a pessimistic outlook for the world’s leading digital asset.

一位加密貨幣分析師警告稱，比特幣（BTC）正面臨嚴重衰退，這對全球領先的數位資產提出了悲觀的前景。

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is likely to crash and form a significant low in the coming months. This period will be characterized by high volatility if the asset continues to trade below the $70,000 level, as highlighted by Alan Santana in a TradingView post on September 25.

這位分析師表示，比特幣可能會在未來幾個月崩盤並形成顯著低點。正如 Alan Santana 在 9 月 25 日的 TradingView 帖子中所強調的那樣，如果資產繼續低於 70,000 美元的水平，這一時期的特點將是高波動性。

Santana's analysis focuses on the technical challenges that Bitcoin has faced since reaching an all-time high of $74,000 in March 2024. He points to a powerful bearish signal that emerged in early March, with the highest daily bearish volume seen in years on March 5, foreshadowing the market's downward trajectory.

Santana 的分析重點是比特幣自2024 年3 月達到74,000 美元的歷史高點以來所面臨的技術挑戰。看跌交易量，預示市場的下行趨勢。

This downward trend has remained intact, with Bitcoin forming a series of lower highs until it ultimately crashed in early August. Santana emphasizes that this bearish structure remains, leaving little room for optimism unless key levels are breached.

這種下降趨勢一直保持不變，比特幣形成了一系列較低的高點，直到八月初最終崩盤。桑塔納強調，這種看跌結構仍然存在，除非突破關鍵水平，否則樂觀的空間很小。

The descending triangle formation on Bitcoin's chart is a crucial pattern that contributes to Santana's bearish stance. This formation, which often indicates further downside, has raised concerns of a breakout to lower levels. According to Santana, the potential severity of the decline shows Bitcoin possibly falling as low as the $30,000 range.

比特幣圖表上的下降三角形是桑塔納看跌立場的關鍵模式。這種形態通常預示著進一步的下跌，引發了人們對突破至更低水平的擔憂。 Santana 表示，潛在的嚴重下跌表明比特幣可能跌至 30,000 美元的區間。

However, Santana suggests two scenarios that could shift Bitcoin into bullish territory. The first would be a breakout above $71,000, which would invalidate much of the current downward momentum. The second scenario would involve Bitcoin producing a new low with reduced selling volume and oversold indicators, signaling that a bottom may be near. In either case, Santana stresses that Bitcoin will need to show clearer signs of reversal before any optimism can take hold.

然而，桑塔納提出了兩種可能將比特幣推向看漲區域的情景。第一個突破將是突破 71,000 美元，這將使當前的大部分下行勢頭失效。第二種情況將涉及比特幣創下新低，同時拋售量和超賣指標減少，這表明底部可能即將來臨。無論哪種情況，桑塔納都強調，比特幣需要顯示出更清晰的逆轉跡象，然後樂觀情緒才能站穩腳跟。

The expert adds that Bitcoin is likely to produce one major low before beginning any meaningful recovery, with crash timelines set for September or November 2024, depending on market conditions.

這位專家補充說，比特幣在開始任何有意義的復甦之前可能會出現一個重大低點，崩盤時間表設定為 2024 年 9 月或 11 月，具體取決於市場狀況。

“We continue 100% bearish on Bitcoin as long as it trades below $70,000/$71,000 on the weekly/monthly close... Bitcoin is set to crash and produce one major low. It can happen now, September 2024, or later in November 2024,” wrote Santana.

「只要比特幣每週/每月收盤價低於 70,000 美元/71,000 美元，我們就繼續 100% 看跌比特幣…比特幣注定會崩潰並出現一個重大低點。它可能會在現在、2024 年 9 月或 2024 年 11 月晚些時候發生，」桑塔納寫道。

Meanwhile, while Santana foresees a possible downturn for Bitcoin, the expert believes an opportunity might be opening in the altcoin market. As reported by Finbold, Santana noted that small-cap altcoins have turned bullish since they have already hit their bottom, unlike Bitcoin.

同時，雖然桑塔納預計比特幣可能會出現低迷，但專家認為山寨幣市場可能正在出現機會。根據 Finbold 報道，桑塔納指出，與比特幣不同，小盤山寨幣因為已經觸底而變得看漲。

In an X post on September 25, crypto trading expert Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture with the asset facing potential price movement in both directions.

加密貨幣交易專家 Ali Martinez 在 9 月 25 日的 X 貼文中指出，比特幣目前正處於關鍵時刻，資產面臨潛在的雙向價格波動。

According to Martinez, data indicates Bitcoin's most critical support zone is at $63,300 as it marks the level where the largest accumulation of realized transactions occurred. At this level, over 500,000 BTC were transacted. Therefore, if Bitcoin maintains this key support, the asset could target $65,500.

馬丁內斯表示，數據顯示比特幣最關鍵的支撐區域是 63,300 美元，因為它標誌著已實現交易的最大累積發生的水平。在此水準上，比特幣的交易量超過 50 萬個。因此，如果比特幣維持這一關鍵支撐，該資產的目標可能是 65,500 美元。

However, a failure to hold $63,300 may result in a downward move toward $60,365, where approximately 314,000 BTC were transacted, marking the next potential support level.

然而，未能守住 63,300 美元可能會導致價格下跌至 60,365 美元，其中約 314,000 BTC 被交易，標誌著下一個潛在支撐位。

Bitcoin was trading at $63,650 at press time, reflecting gains of about 0.7% in the last 24 hours. Over the past seven days, BTC is up almost 7%.

截至發稿時，比特幣交易價格為 63,650 美元，過去 24 小時內上漲約 0.7%。在過去的 7 天裡，BTC 上漲了近 7%。

Overall, Bitcoin is showing a strong bullish trend as it sits above both the 50-day SMA ($59,657) and the 200-day SMA ($61,683). This indicates positive momentum in both the short and long term. Therefore, as long as the crypto sustains the price above these values, there is room for further growth.

總體而言，比特幣顯示出強勁的看漲趨勢，因為它位於 50 日移動平均線（59,657 美元）和 200 日移動平均線（61,683 美元）上方。這表明短期和長期的積極勢頭。因此，只要加密貨幣將價格維持在這些價值之上，就有進一步成長的空間。