比特币（BTC）减半承诺在2025年有历史新高，但历史会押韵吗？

1月20日，比特币（BTC 0.19％）达到了109,000美元的新历史最高点，许多投资者认为，世界上最受欢迎的加密货币将飙升。

On Jan. 20, Bitcoin (BTC 0.19%) hit a new all-time high of $109,000, and many investors thought that the world’s most popular cryptocurrency was about to skyrocket higher.

1月20日，比特币（BTC 0.19％）达到了109,000美元的新历史最高点，许多投资者认为，世界上最受欢迎的加密货币将飙升。

Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case, with Bitcoin now down 22% from its peak. The good news is that Bitcoin has a long track record of recovering from similar market declines. If history is any guide, then Bitcoin could be ready to soar in value later in 2025.

不幸的是，事实并非如此，现在比特币从顶峰下降了22％。好消息是，比特币在从类似市场下降的情况下恢复了悠久的记录。如果历史记录是任何指南，那么比特币可以准备在2025年晚些时候飙升。

What is the Bitcoin cycle?

比特币周期是什么？

The first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that it tends to follow very distinct four-year cycles. The key to the recurring nature of these four-year cycles is the Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years. Typically, there are four different stages to these cycles: an accumulation phase, a growth phase, a bubble phase, and a crash phase.

关于比特币，您需要了解的第一件事是，它倾向于遵循非常独特的周期。这些四年周期的反复性质的关键是比特币减半，每四年发生一次。通常，这些周期有四个不同的阶段：累积阶段，一个生长阶段，气泡阶段和碰撞阶段。

Historically, the halving event has provided the go-ahead signal for Bitcoin to skyrocket in value, as it transitions from the growth phase to the bubble phase. This bubble phase can last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and is the time period when Bitcoin makes its biggest gains.

从历史上看，一半的事件为比特币的价值飞速飙升，这为其从增长阶段转变为气泡阶段时，为比特币的价值飙升。这个泡沫阶段可以持续12到18个月，这是比特币取得最大收益的时期。

Historical evidence from previous Bitcoin cycles

以前比特币周期的历史证据

Take, for example, the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull market cycle. The Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020. And that, not surprisingly, helped to kick off an 18-month rally that led to Bitcoin skyrocketing in price to a then all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

以2020-2021比特币牛市市场周期为例。比特币减半发生在2020年5月11日。这毫不奇怪，有助于开启18个月的集会，这导致比特币在2021年11月的价格上涨至当时的69,000美元。

That’s impressive, but the bull market rally that everyone is talking about right now is the 2015-2017 market cycle. This was kicked off by the Bitcoin halving in July 2016, and lasted nearly 18 months.

这是令人印象深刻的，但是每个人现在都在谈论的牛市集会是2015 - 2017年的市场周期。这是2016年7月比特币减半的开始，持续了近18个月。

The current Bitcoin market cycle appears to be repeating this older market cycle quite precisely. In other words, if you were to compare Bitcoin price charts from these two different market cycles, they would look remarkably similar.

当前的比特币市场周期似乎非常精确地重复了这个较旧的市场周期。换句话说，如果您要比较这两个不同市场周期的比特币价格图表，它们看起来非常相似。

And I mean, remarkably similar. Earlier in the year, there was a 92% statistical correlation between the two market cycles. That correlation has since dipped to 91%, but it is still extraordinarily high. As a result, many crypto investors are now highly confident that Bitcoin is going to continue following a trajectory similar to the one it took in 2017, when it eventually rose from about $1,000 to a price of $20,000. That means Bitcoin could be ready to go parabolic any moment now.

我的意思是，非常相似。今年早些时候，两个市场周期之间存在92％的统计相关性。此后，这种相关性已下降到91％，但仍然非常高。结果，许多加密货币投资者现在非常有信心，比特币将继续遵循与2017年所采用的轨迹相似的轨迹，当时它最终从约1,000美元上涨至20,000美元的价格。这意味着比特币现在可以随时准备去抛物线。

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView

TradingView的比特币 /美元图表

As can be seen in the above chart, Bitcoin’s ascent to the $20,000 level from July 2016 to December 2017 was not a straight-upward trajectory. There were some pullbacks along the way, and there was a long period of time when it looked like a breakout would not happen. That should provide some peace of mind to crypto investors worried about Bitcoin’s current 22% pullback.

从上图可以看出，从2016年7月到2017年12月，比特币的上升至20,000美元，这不是直接的轨迹。一路上有一些回调，而且很长一段时间似乎不会发生突破。这应该使加密投资者担心比特币目前的22％回调的加密投资者有些安心。

And it should help to explain why so many investors were so excited about the Bitcoin halving that took place in April 2024. If you buy into the logic of historical cycles repeating themselves, then that should have been the go-ahead signal for a Bitcoin rally lasting into 2025.

这应该有助于解释为什么这么多投资者对2024年4月的比特币减半感到非常兴奋。如果您融入了自己重复的历史周期的逻辑，那么这应该是持续到2025年的比特币集会的信号。

Will history repeat itself?

历史会重演吗？

But here’s the thing: Some analysts are suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market is already over.

但这是事实：一些分析师暗示比特币牛市已经结束。

What we are seeing now, they say, is not some kind of “consolidation” before a massive breakout — we are seeing the beginning of the crash phase of the cycle. And the good news is that, according to the historical four-year cycle, this crash is going to take Bitcoin back down to the $16,000 to $18,000 range.

他们说，我们现在看到的不是大规模突破之前的某种“合并” - 我们看到了周期的崩溃阶段的开始。好消息是，根据历史的四年周期，这次崩溃将使比特币降至16,000美元至18,000美元。

Remember, the bubble phase of the cycle can last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and it has now been 12 months since the April 2024 halving.

请记住，该周期的气泡阶段可以持续12到18个月，现在已经有12个月了，自2024年4月以来已有12个月。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

In response, some analysts are suggesting that maybe the bubble phase didn’t start with the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Maybe it actually started with the election of President Donald Trump in November 2024. If you count 18 months from the election, that would suggest that a Bitcoin rally could extend into 2026.

作为回应，一些分析师暗示，泡沫阶段也许不是从2024年4月的比特币开始减半的开始。也许这实际上是从2024年11月的唐纳德·特朗普总统选举开始。如果您从选举起18个月来算出18个月，那就暗示比特币集会可以扩展到2026年。

And, if the White House can continue to find new ways to support the crypto market, the Bitcoin rally might even extend until 2027. Some analysts have even suggested that Trump has broken the four-year

而且，如果白宫可以继续寻找支持加密市场的新方法，那么比特币集会甚至可能会延长到2027年。一些分析师甚至建议特朗普打破了四年