比特幣（BTC）減半承諾在2025年有歷史新高，但歷史會押韻嗎？

1月20日，比特幣（BTC 0.19％）達到了109,000美元的新歷史最高點，許多投資者認為，世界上最受歡迎的加密貨幣將飆升。

On Jan. 20, Bitcoin (BTC 0.19%) hit a new all-time high of $109,000, and many investors thought that the world’s most popular cryptocurrency was about to skyrocket higher.

1月20日，比特幣（BTC 0.19％）達到了109,000美元的新歷史最高點，許多投資者認為，世界上最受歡迎的加密貨幣將飆升。

Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case, with Bitcoin now down 22% from its peak. The good news is that Bitcoin has a long track record of recovering from similar market declines. If history is any guide, then Bitcoin could be ready to soar in value later in 2025.

不幸的是，事實並非如此，現在比特幣從頂峰下降了22％。好消息是，比特幣在從類似市場下降的情況下恢復了悠久的記錄。如果歷史記錄是任何指南，那麼比特幣可以準備在2025年晚些時候飆升。

What is the Bitcoin cycle?

比特幣週期是什麼？

The first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that it tends to follow very distinct four-year cycles. The key to the recurring nature of these four-year cycles is the Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years. Typically, there are four different stages to these cycles: an accumulation phase, a growth phase, a bubble phase, and a crash phase.

關於比特幣，您需要了解的第一件事是，它傾向於遵循非常獨特的周期。這些四年周期的反复性質的關鍵是比特幣減半，每四年發生一次。通常，這些週期有四個不同的階段：累積階段，一個生長階段，氣泡階段和碰撞階段。

Historically, the halving event has provided the go-ahead signal for Bitcoin to skyrocket in value, as it transitions from the growth phase to the bubble phase. This bubble phase can last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and is the time period when Bitcoin makes its biggest gains.

從歷史上看，一半的事件為比特幣的價值飛速飆升，這為其從增長階段轉變為氣泡階段時，為比特幣的價值飆升。這個泡沫階段可以持續12到18個月，這是比特幣取得最大收益的時期。

Historical evidence from previous Bitcoin cycles

以前比特幣週期的歷史證據

Take, for example, the 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull market cycle. The Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020. And that, not surprisingly, helped to kick off an 18-month rally that led to Bitcoin skyrocketing in price to a then all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

以2020-2021比特幣牛市市場週期為例。比特幣減半發生在2020年5月11日。這毫不奇怪，有助於開啟18個月的集會，這導致比特幣在2021年11月的價格上漲至當時的69,000美元。

That’s impressive, but the bull market rally that everyone is talking about right now is the 2015-2017 market cycle. This was kicked off by the Bitcoin halving in July 2016, and lasted nearly 18 months.

這是令人印象深刻的，但是每個人現在都在談論的牛市集會是2015 - 2017年的市場週期。這是2016年7月比特幣減半的開始，持續了近18個月。

The current Bitcoin market cycle appears to be repeating this older market cycle quite precisely. In other words, if you were to compare Bitcoin price charts from these two different market cycles, they would look remarkably similar.

當前的比特幣市場週期似乎非常精確地重複了這個較舊的市場週期。換句話說，如果您要比較這兩個不同市場週期的比特幣價格圖表，它們看起來非常相似。

And I mean, remarkably similar. Earlier in the year, there was a 92% statistical correlation between the two market cycles. That correlation has since dipped to 91%, but it is still extraordinarily high. As a result, many crypto investors are now highly confident that Bitcoin is going to continue following a trajectory similar to the one it took in 2017, when it eventually rose from about $1,000 to a price of $20,000. That means Bitcoin could be ready to go parabolic any moment now.

我的意思是，非常相似。今年早些時候，兩個市場週期之間存在92％的統計相關性。此後，這種相關性已下降到91％，但仍然非常高。結果，許多加密貨幣投資者現在非常有信心，比特幣將繼續遵循與2017年所採用的軌跡相似的軌跡，當時它最終從約1,000美元上漲至20,000美元的價格。這意味著比特幣現在可以隨時準備去拋物線。

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView

TradingView的比特幣 /美元圖表

As can be seen in the above chart, Bitcoin’s ascent to the $20,000 level from July 2016 to December 2017 was not a straight-upward trajectory. There were some pullbacks along the way, and there was a long period of time when it looked like a breakout would not happen. That should provide some peace of mind to crypto investors worried about Bitcoin’s current 22% pullback.

從上圖可以看出，從2016年7月到2017年12月，比特幣的上升至20,000美元，這不是直接的軌跡。一路上有一些回調，而且很長一段時間似乎不會發生突破。這應該使加密投資者擔心比特幣目前的22％回調的加密投資者有些安心。

And it should help to explain why so many investors were so excited about the Bitcoin halving that took place in April 2024. If you buy into the logic of historical cycles repeating themselves, then that should have been the go-ahead signal for a Bitcoin rally lasting into 2025.

這應該有助於解釋為什麼這麼多投資者對2024年4月的比特幣減半感到非常興奮。如果您融入了自己重複的歷史週期的邏輯，那麼這應該是持續到2025年的比特幣集會的信號。

Will history repeat itself?

歷史會重演嗎？

But here’s the thing: Some analysts are suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market is already over.

但這是事實：一些分析師暗示比特幣牛市已經結束。

What we are seeing now, they say, is not some kind of “consolidation” before a massive breakout — we are seeing the beginning of the crash phase of the cycle. And the good news is that, according to the historical four-year cycle, this crash is going to take Bitcoin back down to the $16,000 to $18,000 range.

他們說，我們現在看到的不是大規模突破之前的某種“合併” - 我們看到了周期的崩潰階段的開始。好消息是，根據歷史的四年周期，這次崩潰將使比特幣降至16,000美元至18,000美元。

Remember, the bubble phase of the cycle can last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and it has now been 12 months since the April 2024 halving.

請記住，該週期的氣泡階段可以持續12到18個月，現在已經有12個月了，自2024年4月以來已有12個月。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

In response, some analysts are suggesting that maybe the bubble phase didn’t start with the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Maybe it actually started with the election of President Donald Trump in November 2024. If you count 18 months from the election, that would suggest that a Bitcoin rally could extend into 2026.

作為回應，一些分析師暗示，泡沫階段也許不是從2024年4月的比特幣開始減半的開始。也許這實際上是從2024年11月的唐納德·特朗普總統選舉開始。如果您從選舉起18個月來算出18個月，那就暗示比特幣集會可以擴展到2026年。

And, if the White House can continue to find new ways to support the crypto market, the Bitcoin rally might even extend until 2027. Some analysts have even suggested that Trump has broken the four-year

而且，如果白宮可以繼續尋找支持加密市場的新方法，那麼比特幣集會甚至可能會延長到2027年。一些分析師甚至建議特朗普打破了四年