比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）正进入总收益的历史强劲时期

2025 年第一季度对比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）都抱有特殊的期望。对于BTC来说，历史数据显示减半后的前三个月通常是积极发展的时期。

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are entering a period that has historically been strong for total gains. In Q1, and especially in the year after a halving, both assets ended the period with net gains.

比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）正在进入历史上总收益强劲的时期。在第一季度，尤其是在减半后的一年，这两种资产均以净收益结束了这一时期。

The first quarter of 2025 holds special expectations for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). For BTC, historical data shows that the first three months of a post-halving year are usually a period of positive developments.

2025 年第一季度对比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）都抱有特殊的期望。对于BTC来说，历史数据显示，减半后的前三个月通常是积极发展的时期。

BTC is yet to show if it will retain the trend, as its price action has been determined by a new set of factors. On the one hand, there is a strong trend of long-term holding, especially with messages from MicroStrategy that its BTC reserves will not be sold. On the other hand, the quarterly net gains may be small as volatile price moves cancel each other out.

比特币尚未表明其是否会保持这一趋势，因为其价格走势已由一系列新因素决定。一方面，长期持有的趋势强劲，尤其是 MicroStrategy 发出不会出售其 BTC 储备的消息。另一方面，由于价格波动相互抵消，季度净收益可能很小。

The performance of BTC was questioned after the recent dip to $93,228.70, after a series of smaller drawdowns. BTC has significant support above $87,000, but may still face panic-selling in case of a bigger drawdown.

在经历了一系列较小的下跌之后，BTC 的表现最近跌至 93,228.70 美元后受到质疑。 BTC 在 87,000 美元上方有重要支撑，但如果出现更大的下跌，仍可能面临恐慌性抛售。

Historical patterns may not always predict BTC price moves. January holds the risk of net losses, especially after the enthusiasm and peak gains of 2024. Others expect the true bull rally to be delayed to February or March.

历史模式可能并不总是能预测比特币价格走势。 1 月份存在净亏损风险，尤其是在 2024 年的热情和峰值涨幅之后。其他人预计真正的牛市反弹将推迟到 2 月或 3 月。

Since 2020, BTC also posted smaller quarterly gains and losses, as the traders have found new trading strategies and avoid panic moves. However, even relatively stable range-bound trading can lead to losses.

自2020年以来，随着交易者找到新的交易策略并避免恐慌行为，比特币的季度收益和损失也较小。然而，即使相对稳定的区间交易也可能导致损失。

BTC has plenty of bullish indicators, such as depleted exchange reserves and potential strong long-term holders. In the short term, volatility may return for both spot and derivative traders, and there are still fears of a bigger drawdown.

比特币有很多看涨指标，例如耗尽的外汇储备和潜在的强大长期持有者。短期内，现货和衍生品交易者都可能会出现波动，并且仍然担心出现更大的回撤。

In the short term, BTC still trades with high levels of greed-based decisions. The relatively small drawdowns continue to shift funds to new cohorts of holders, as retail has rejoined the trend of accumulation. BTC remains bullish expectations for 2024, with predictions ranging from $140,000 to $250,000.

短期内，比特币交易仍存在高度的贪婪决策。随着散户重新加入积累趋势，相对较小的回撤继续将资金转移到新的持有者群体。 BTC 对 2024 年仍持看涨预期，预测范围为 14 万美元至 25 万美元。

Continue reading on Benzinga ETH Spent 2024 With Increased Usage, Setting Up for a Bullish Q1: What to Watch

继续阅读 Benzinga ETH 2024 年使用量增加，为第一季度看涨做准备：看什么

Ethereum (ETH) spent 2024 with increased usage, whether it be DeFi, stablecoins, or L2. The ETH price remained range-bound, only briefly breaking above the $4,000 level.

以太坊 (ETH) 在 2024 年的使用量有所增加，无论是 DeFi、稳定币还是 L2。 ETH 价格保持区间波动，仅短暂突破 4,000 美元水平。

January is a predominantly positive month for ETH, with two exceptions – deep drawdowns in 2019 and 2022. This month, ETH accrued losses of 3.42% so far, with the chance to change the score in the coming weeks. In previous years, ETH saw the biggest drawdowns in June, July, and August.

1 月份对 ETH 来说主要是积极的月份，但有两个例外——2019 年和 2022 年的大幅下跌。本月，ETH 迄今为止累计损失了 3.42%，未来几周有可能改变分数。往年，ETH 的跌幅最大的时间是 6 月、7 月和 8 月。

Historically, ETH also outperformed in Q1, often becoming the catalyst for another altcoin season. ETH has enjoyed significant demand from ETF and multiple forms of locking and staking, along with relatively low new token inflation. Funds often add to selling pressures, with rapid shifts in sentiment. ETH remains one of the tokens with significant social media representation and bullish expectations, though still underperforming against BTC.

从历史上看，ETH 在第一季度的表现也优于大盘，往往成为另一个山寨币季节的催化剂。 ETH 受到 ETF 的巨大需求以及多种形式的锁定和质押，以及相对较低的新代币通胀。随着情绪的迅速转变，基金往往会增加抛售压力。 ETH 仍然是具有重要社交媒体代表性和看涨预期的代币之一，尽管相对于 BTC 的表现仍然不佳。

The biggest fear for ETH is a longer time span. Over time, ETH has achieved at most two years of positive performance in a row, ending the third year of the cycle with losses. In 2025, ETH enters with bullish predictions, expecting to break out to a new price range. However, drawdowns may break the rally, while also revealing the ongoing problems for Ethereum’s network.

对 ETH 最大的恐惧是更长的时间跨度。随着时间的推移，ETH 最多连续两年实现积极表现，以亏损结束周期的第三年。 2025 年，ETH 进入看涨预测，有望突破新的价格区间。然而，资金回撤可能会打破涨势，同时也暴露出以太坊网络持续存在的问题。

Additionally, ETH grew by over 96% in 2023 but slowed down its growth to just 43% in the more bullish 2024. ETH faced controversies from L2 usage, while Solana and Base gained as the more widely adopted chains.

此外，ETH 在 2023 年增长了 96% 以上，但在更乐观的 2024 年增长放缓至仅 43%。ETH 面临 L2 使用的争议，而 Solana 和 Base 作为更广泛采用的链而上涨。

Ethereum remained the leader due to the passive usage of ETH as collateral, as well as the large supply of USDT. The chain mostly carried USDT transactions and Uniswap activity, based on the top smart contracts.

由于被动使用 ETH 作为抵押品以及 USDT 的大量供应，以太坊仍然保持领先地位。该链主要承载 USDT 交易和 Uniswap 活动，基于顶级智能合约。

The only benefit for ETH is the expectation of catching up to the growth of BTC. In the short term, attitudes toward ETH were bullish both from retail and professional traders.

ETH 的唯一好处是有望赶上 BTC 的增长。短期内，散户和专业交易者对 ETH 的态度都是看涨的。