比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）正進入總收益的歷史強勁時期

2025 年第一季對比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）都抱有特殊的期望。對於BTC來說，歷史數據顯示減半後的前三個月通常是積極發展的時期。

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are entering a period that has historically been strong for total gains. In Q1, and especially in the year after a halving, both assets ended the period with net gains.

比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）正進入歷史上總收益強勁的時期。在第一季度，尤其是在減半後的一年，這兩種資產均以淨收益結束了這段期間。

The first quarter of 2025 holds special expectations for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). For BTC, historical data shows that the first three months of a post-halving year are usually a period of positive developments.

2025 年第一季對比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）都抱有特殊的期望。對於BTC來說，歷史數據顯示，減半後的前三個月通常是積極發展的時期。

BTC is yet to show if it will retain the trend, as its price action has been determined by a new set of factors. On the one hand, there is a strong trend of long-term holding, especially with messages from MicroStrategy that its BTC reserves will not be sold. On the other hand, the quarterly net gains may be small as volatile price moves cancel each other out.

比特幣尚未表明其是否會保持這一趨勢，因為其價格走勢已由一系列新因素決定。一方面，長期持有的趨勢強勁，尤其是 MicroStrategy 發出不會出售其 BTC 儲備的消息。另一方面，由於價格波動相互抵消，季度淨收益可能很小。

The performance of BTC was questioned after the recent dip to $93,228.70, after a series of smaller drawdowns. BTC has significant support above $87,000, but may still face panic-selling in case of a bigger drawdown.

在經歷了一系列較小的下跌之後，BTC 的表現最近跌至 93,228.70 美元後受到質疑。 BTC 在 87,000 美元上方有重要支撐，但如果出現更大的下跌，仍可能面臨恐慌性拋售。

Historical patterns may not always predict BTC price moves. January holds the risk of net losses, especially after the enthusiasm and peak gains of 2024. Others expect the true bull rally to be delayed to February or March.

歷史模式可能並不總是能預測比特幣價格走勢。 1 月份存在淨虧損風險，尤其是在 2024 年的熱情和峰值漲幅之後。

Since 2020, BTC also posted smaller quarterly gains and losses, as the traders have found new trading strategies and avoid panic moves. However, even relatively stable range-bound trading can lead to losses.

自2020年以來，隨著交易者找到新的交易策略並避免恐慌行為，比特幣的季度收益和損失也較小。然而，即使相對穩定的區間交易也可能導致損失。

BTC has plenty of bullish indicators, such as depleted exchange reserves and potential strong long-term holders. In the short term, volatility may return for both spot and derivative traders, and there are still fears of a bigger drawdown.

比特幣有很多看漲指標，例如耗盡的外匯儲備和潛在強大的長期持有者。短期內，現貨和衍生性商品交易者都可能會出現波動，並且仍然擔心出現更大的回撤。

In the short term, BTC still trades with high levels of greed-based decisions. The relatively small drawdowns continue to shift funds to new cohorts of holders, as retail has rejoined the trend of accumulation. BTC remains bullish expectations for 2024, with predictions ranging from $140,000 to $250,000.

短期內，比特幣交易仍存在高度的貪婪決策。隨著散戶重新加入累積趨勢，相對較小的回撤繼續將資金轉移到新的持有者群體。 BTC 對 2024 年仍持看漲預期，預測範圍為 14 萬美元至 25 萬美元。

Continue reading on Benzinga ETH Spent 2024 With Increased Usage, Setting Up for a Bullish Q1: What to Watch

繼續閱讀 Benzinga ETH 2024 年使用量增加，為第一季看漲做準備：看什麼

Ethereum (ETH) spent 2024 with increased usage, whether it be DeFi, stablecoins, or L2. The ETH price remained range-bound, only briefly breaking above the $4,000 level.

以太幣 (ETH) 在 2024 年的使用量增加，無論是 DeFi、穩定幣還是 L2。 ETH 價格維持區間波動，僅短暫突破 4,000 美元水準。

January is a predominantly positive month for ETH, with two exceptions – deep drawdowns in 2019 and 2022. This month, ETH accrued losses of 3.42% so far, with the chance to change the score in the coming weeks. In previous years, ETH saw the biggest drawdowns in June, July, and August.

1 月對 ETH 來說主要是正面的月份，但有兩個例外——2019 年和 2022 年的大幅下跌。往年，ETH 的跌幅最大的時間是 6 月、7 月和 8 月。

Historically, ETH also outperformed in Q1, often becoming the catalyst for another altcoin season. ETH has enjoyed significant demand from ETF and multiple forms of locking and staking, along with relatively low new token inflation. Funds often add to selling pressures, with rapid shifts in sentiment. ETH remains one of the tokens with significant social media representation and bullish expectations, though still underperforming against BTC.

從歷史上看，ETH 在第一季的表現也優於大盤，往往成為另一個山寨幣季節的催化劑。 ETH 受到 ETF 的巨大需求以及多種形式的鎖定和質押，以及相對較低的新代幣通膨。隨著情緒的快速轉變，基金往往會增加拋售壓力。 ETH 仍然是具有重要社交媒體代表性和看漲預期的代幣之一，儘管相對於 BTC 仍表現不佳。

The biggest fear for ETH is a longer time span. Over time, ETH has achieved at most two years of positive performance in a row, ending the third year of the cycle with losses. In 2025, ETH enters with bullish predictions, expecting to break out to a new price range. However, drawdowns may break the rally, while also revealing the ongoing problems for Ethereum’s network.

對 ETH 最大的恐懼是更長的時間跨度。隨著時間的推移，ETH 最多連續兩年實現積極表現，以虧損結束週期的第三年。 2025 年，ETH 進入看漲預測，並有望突破新的價格區間。然而，資金回撤可能會打破漲勢，同時也暴露出以太坊網路持續存在的問題。

Additionally, ETH grew by over 96% in 2023 but slowed down its growth to just 43% in the more bullish 2024. ETH faced controversies from L2 usage, while Solana and Base gained as the more widely adopted chains.

此外，ETH 在 2023 年增長了 96% 以上，但在更樂觀的 2024 年增長放緩至僅 43%。

Ethereum remained the leader due to the passive usage of ETH as collateral, as well as the large supply of USDT. The chain mostly carried USDT transactions and Uniswap activity, based on the top smart contracts.

由於被動使用 ETH 作為抵押品以及 USDT 的大量供應，以太坊仍然保持領先地位。該鏈主要承載 USDT 交易和 Uniswap 活動，基於頂級智能合約。

The only benefit for ETH is the expectation of catching up to the growth of BTC. In the short term, attitudes toward ETH were bullish both from retail and professional traders.

ETH 的唯一好處是有望趕上 BTC 的成長。短期內，散戶和專業交易者對 ETH 的態度都是看漲的。