比特币（BTC）可能正在进入“第七局”，未来还有两个增长阶段

经验丰富的投资者阿里·保罗 (Ari Paul) 表示，这可能会将 BTC 价格推至 125,000 美元，并释放在飙升的市场上进行激进交易的机会。

Bitcoin's (BTC) bull run might be just entering its "seven inning," having two more growth stages ahead. This one might push the BTC price to $125,000 and unlock opportunities for aggressive trading on rocketing markets, seasoned investor Ari Paul says.

比特币（BTC）的牛市可能刚刚进入“七局”，未来还有两个增长阶段。经验丰富的投资者阿里·保罗 (Ari Paul) 表示，这可能会将 BTC 价格推至 125,000 美元，并释放在飙升的市场上进行激进交易的机会。

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is entering its "seventh inning" of this bull rally. It means that it jumped into the first phase of its last third, Ari Paul, founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital fund, said on his personal Twitter on Nov. 8, 2024.

最大的加密货币比特币（BTC）正在进入本次牛市反弹的“第七局”。 BlockTower Capital 基金创始人兼 CIO Ari Paul 于 2024 年 11 月 8 日在其个人推特上表示，这意味着它进入了最后三分之一的第一阶段。

“IMO, we're in the 7th inning of bull market. The first 1/3 of the last 1/3. Strong hand positioning (recent buyers are positioning for 6-12 month rally, more 'institutional' than retail speculative.) I expect this to produce a fairly "gradual" rally during this phase, maybe…,”

“在我看来，我们正处于牛市的第七局。前1/3 后1/3。强劲的手头仓位（最近的买家正在为 6-12 个月的反弹做好准备，更多的是“机构性”而非散户投机性。）我预计这将在这一阶段产生相当“渐进”的反弹，也许……，”

In this stage (compared to the seventh out of nine periods in a baseball game), Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its gradual growth. As a result, we might see BTC reaching $90,000 or even $125,000 during the ongoing "seven inning," Paul foresees. Largely, these impressive dynamics will be backed by "strong hands" with 6 to 12 more months of rally in mind.

在这个阶段（与棒球比赛九节中的第七节相比），比特币（BTC）将继续逐步增长。因此，保罗预计，在正在进行的“七局”中，我们可能会看到 BTC 达到 90,000 美元甚至 125,000 美元。很大程度上，这些令人印象深刻的动力将得到“强手”的支持，并考虑到未来 6 至 12 个月的反弹。

Also, in this phase, institutional adoption affects Bitcoin's (BTC) performance more than the retail-driven one. That's why the growth has all chances to be sustainable in the next few months.

此外，在这一阶段，机构采用对比特币（BTC）表现的影响大于散户驱动的表现。这就是为什么未来几个月经济增长完全有可能持续。

Step by step, the situation will be changing with more retail buyers bringing their liquidity. This inflow will also boost volatility and leverage on Bitcoin-based derivatives positions. The market will see more opportunities for aggressive strategies.

随着更多散户买家带来流动性，情况将逐步发生变化。这种资金流入还将增加基于比特币的衍生品头寸的波动性和杠杆率。市场将看到更多激进策略的机会。

That being said, Paul expects the eighth and ninth inning to be periods of "parabolic" growth for the largest cryptocurrency. He did not indicate the exact timing for the peak of this run, but some of his Twitter followers hint at early Q4, 2025.

话虽这么说，保罗预计第八局和第九局将是最大的加密货币的“抛物线”增长时期。他没有指出本次高峰的确切时间，但他的一些 Twitter 粉丝暗示会在 2025 年第四季度初。

Previously, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated two "tops" in a post-halving year of 2021: It touched $69,000 in May and surpassed this level in November.

此前，比特币（BTC）在2021年减半后表现出了两个“顶”：5月触及69,000美元，11月突破该水平。

Altcoin season in 2025? Raoul Pal won't be surprised

2025 年山寨币季节？拉乌尔·帕尔不会感到惊讶

As covered by U.Today previously, Ari Paul masterfully predicted the bullish Q4, 2024 for Bitcoin (BTC) back in January 2023, when the crypto king was changing hands at awful $22,000 after the FTX collapse.

正如 U.Today 之前报道的那样，Ari Paul 早在 2023 年 1 月就巧妙地预测了比特币 (BTC) 2024 年第四季度的看涨，当时 FTX 崩盘后，这位加密货币之王以可怕的 22,000 美元易手。

Amid the general uber-bearish sentiment, he indicated $100,000 as the target for BTC in 2024.

在普遍的极度悲观情绪中，他表示 2024 年 BTC 的目标是 10 万美元。

In a discussion below the post, Paul suggested that in the two last phases, with due risk management, super-volatile assets might bring decent rewards.

在帖子下面的讨论中，保罗建议，在最后两个阶段，通过适当的风险管理，超波动性资产可能会带来不错的回报。

Similar views were shared yesterday by Real Vision CEO economist Raoul Pal, who suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) might be outperformed by Ether (ETH) in the coming phases of the bull run.

Real Vision 首席执行官经济学家 Raoul Pal 昨天也表达了类似的观点，他认为在牛市的未来阶段，比特币（BTC）的表现可能会被以太坊（ETH）超越。

“Just thinking out loud...I've been expecting $ETH to start gaining lost ground on BTC. It's partly driven by the risk taking cycle but it's also driven by the election You see, now that regulation is likely to dramatically improve for crypto it allows two key potential…,”

“只是大声思考......我一直预计 ETH 会开始收复 BTC 的失地。这在一定程度上是由冒险周期驱动的，但也是由选举驱动的。你看，现在加密货币的监管可能会大大改善，它带来了两个关键的潜力......”