比特幣（BTC）可能正在進入“第七局”，未來還有兩個成長階段

經驗豐富的投資者 Ari Paul 表示，這可能會將 BTC 價格推至 125,000 美元，並釋放在飆升的市場上進行激進交易的機會。

Bitcoin's (BTC) bull run might be just entering its "seven inning," having two more growth stages ahead. This one might push the BTC price to $125,000 and unlock opportunities for aggressive trading on rocketing markets, seasoned investor Ari Paul says.

比特幣（BTC）的牛市可能剛剛進入“七局”，未來還有兩個增長階段。經驗豐富的投資者 Ari Paul 表示，這可能會將 BTC 價格推至 125,000 美元，並釋放在飆升的市場上進行激進交易的機會。

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is entering its "seventh inning" of this bull rally. It means that it jumped into the first phase of its last third, Ari Paul, founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital fund, said on his personal Twitter on Nov. 8, 2024.

最大的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）正在進入本次牛市反彈的「第七局」。 BlockTower Capital 基金創辦人兼 CIO Ari Paul 於 2024 年 11 月 8 日在其個人推特上表示，這意味著它進入了最後三分之一的第一階段。

“IMO, we're in the 7th inning of bull market. The first 1/3 of the last 1/3. Strong hand positioning (recent buyers are positioning for 6-12 month rally, more 'institutional' than retail speculative.) I expect this to produce a fairly "gradual" rally during this phase, maybe…,”

「在我看來，我們正處於牛市的第七局。前1/3 後1/3。強勁的手頭倉位（最近的買家正在為6-12 個月的反彈做好準備，更多的是“機構性”而非散戶投機性。）我預計這將在這一階段產生相當“漸進”的反彈，也許…，”

In this stage (compared to the seventh out of nine periods in a baseball game), Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its gradual growth. As a result, we might see BTC reaching $90,000 or even $125,000 during the ongoing "seven inning," Paul foresees. Largely, these impressive dynamics will be backed by "strong hands" with 6 to 12 more months of rally in mind.

在這個階段（與棒球比賽九節中的第七節相比），比特幣（BTC）將繼續逐步成長。因此，保羅預計，在正在進行的「七局」中，我們可能會看到 BTC 達到 90,000 美元甚至 125,000 美元。很大程度上，這些令人印象深刻的動力將得到「強手」的支持，並考慮到未來 6 至 12 個月的反彈。

Also, in this phase, institutional adoption affects Bitcoin's (BTC) performance more than the retail-driven one. That's why the growth has all chances to be sustainable in the next few months.

此外，在這階段，機構採用對比特幣（BTC）表現的影響大於散戶驅動的表現。這就是為什麼未來幾個月經濟成長完全有可能持續。

Step by step, the situation will be changing with more retail buyers bringing their liquidity. This inflow will also boost volatility and leverage on Bitcoin-based derivatives positions. The market will see more opportunities for aggressive strategies.

隨著更多散戶買家帶來流動性，情況將逐步改變。這種資金流入還將增加基於比特幣的衍生性商品部位的波動性和槓桿率。市場將看到更多激進策略的機會。

That being said, Paul expects the eighth and ninth inning to be periods of "parabolic" growth for the largest cryptocurrency. He did not indicate the exact timing for the peak of this run, but some of his Twitter followers hint at early Q4, 2025.

話雖這麼說，保羅預計第八局和第九局將是最大的加密貨幣的「拋物線」增長時期。他沒有指出本次高峰的確切時間，但他的一些 Twitter 粉絲暗示會在 2025 年第四季初。

Previously, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated two "tops" in a post-halving year of 2021: It touched $69,000 in May and surpassed this level in November.

此前，比特幣（BTC）在2021年減半後表現出了兩個「頂」：5月觸及69,000美元，11月突破該水準。

Altcoin season in 2025? Raoul Pal won't be surprised

2025 年山寨幣季節？拉烏爾·帕爾不會感到驚訝

As covered by U.Today previously, Ari Paul masterfully predicted the bullish Q4, 2024 for Bitcoin (BTC) back in January 2023, when the crypto king was changing hands at awful $22,000 after the FTX collapse.

正如U.Today 之前報導的那樣，Ari Paul 早在2023 年1 月就巧妙地預測了比特幣(BTC) 2024 年第四季度的看漲，當時FTX 崩盤後，這位加密貨幣之王以可怕的22,000美元易手。

Amid the general uber-bearish sentiment, he indicated $100,000 as the target for BTC in 2024.

在普遍的極度悲觀情緒中，他表示 2024 年 BTC 的目標是 10 萬美元。

In a discussion below the post, Paul suggested that in the two last phases, with due risk management, super-volatile assets might bring decent rewards.

在貼文下方的討論中，保羅建議，在最後兩個階段，透過適當的風險管理，超波動性資產可能會帶來不錯的回報。

Similar views were shared yesterday by Real Vision CEO economist Raoul Pal, who suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) might be outperformed by Ether (ETH) in the coming phases of the bull run.

Real Vision 執行長經濟學家 Raoul Pal 昨天也表達了類似的觀點，他認為在牛市的未來階段，比特幣（BTC）的表現可能會被以太坊（ETH）超越。

“Just thinking out loud...I've been expecting $ETH to start gaining lost ground on BTC. It's partly driven by the risk taking cycle but it's also driven by the election You see, now that regulation is likely to dramatically improve for crypto it allows two key potential…,”

「只是大聲思考......我一直預計 ETH 會開始收復 BTC 的失地。這在一定程度上是由冒險週期驅動的，但也是由選舉驅動的。